The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government

In this paper we provide an estimate of the likelihood of conflict between the federal government and the Bundesbank for the 1989-1998 period. We rely on a novel proxy for the impact of public communication by Bundesbank officials on the probability of conflict, in addition to interest rate, exchange rate, money supply behavior, as well as electoral influences. The empirical evidence is consistent with the view that speeches by the Bundesbank president dealing with inflation and economic policy are a positive source of conflict in a probabilistic sense. Conflict was not a constant but flared up at times of economic stress and could be exacerbated by the “talking” of Bundesbank officials.     

Understanding B2B and the Web: the acceleration of coordination and motivation

This paper explores business-to-business (B2B) marketing on the Internet, and how the confluence of the two may transform the B2B landscape. Specifically, it discusses the notion of linkage value to demonstrate why the B2B phenomenon on the Internet is so significant. It then considers the mechanisms and enablers that have made the Web such an important B2B marketing channel. It also explores how the Web can reduce transaction costs, thereby facilitating more efficient exchanges and markets. The concepts of links and nodes are then introduced and the processes of disintermediation, reintermediation, disaggregation and reaggregation are explored. Finally, Web B2B configurations are considered by way of a model that describes four archetypal configurations, and the factors that are antecedent to these modes and how the Web may influence them.     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia,Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?

Outwardly, the central banks of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. follow somewhat different approaches to controlling inflation. The U.S. does not explicitly target inflation while the other countries do. Canada and New Zealand have target bands for inflation while Australia has a point target. Results in this paper nevertheless find broad similarities in the monetary policies of these countries. Each can be described as having pursued optimal inflation targeting (explicit or implicit), with heavy interest rate smoothing, but perhaps placing little weight on output variability. We argue that interest rate smoothing is used to introduce gradualism into the response of monetary policy to inflation. We show that given heavy interest rate smoothing, a concern for output variability is redundant.     

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub‐Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross‐country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current ‘Poverty Reduction’ Strategy Papers.     

Jointly Optimal Taxes and Enforcement Policies in Response to Tax Evasion

Assuming the government cannot fully observe either individual types or incomes and jointly picks optimal taxes and audit policies against evasion can significantly alter standard results from optimal income taxation and tax‐evasion models, which treat these separately. We consider this when individuals differ in their risk preferences and incomes. Given the resulting complexity, supplementing analytic results with numerical analysis helps explain the structure of the resulting policies and how they change when the distribution of income or the revenue requirements of the government change. We do this analysis with and without audit errors and with incomes exogenous or affected by occupational choice.     

U-commerce: Expanding the universe of marketing

This article introduces several new concepts that lay the conceptual foundation for thinking about next-generation marketing based on ubiquitous networks. U-commerce, orüber-commerce, is predicated on the characteristics of network ubiquity, universality, uniqueness, and unison. It is proposed that the keys to managing network-driven firms are the concepts of u-space and attention analysis. The implications for next-generation marketing in the u-space are explored, with a research agenda identified for scholars and managerial implications recognized for practitioners. Richard T. Watson is the J. Rex Distinguished Chair for Internet Strategy and the director of the Center for Information Systems Leadership in the Terry College of Business, University of Georgia. He has published in leading journals in several fields as well as authored books on data management and electronic commerce and given invited seminars in nearly 20 countries. He is vice president of communications of AIS and recently finished a term as a senior editor ofMIS Quarterly. He is a visiting professor at Agder University College, Norway, and a consulting editor to John Wiley & Sons. Leyland F. Pitt is a professor of marketing in the School of Marketing, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. He is also adjunct professor of marketing at Kingston Business School, United Kingdom; the University of Lulea, Sweden; and the Ecole Nationale Ponts et Chaussees in Paris. He has also taught marketing and electronic commerce on M. B. A. and executive programs at schools such as Warwick Business School, London Business School, the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, and the Graham School of Continuing Studies at the University of Chicago. Dr. Pitt is the author of more than 100 papers in scholarly journals, and his work has appeared in publications such asCalifornia Management Review, Sloan Management Review, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Information Systems Research, Journal of Advertising Research, Communications of the ACM, andMIS Quarterly (for which he also served as associate editor). Pierre Berthon is an associate professor of marketing at Bentley College. He has held academic positions at Columbia University, Henley Management College, Cardiff University, and University of Bath. His teaching and research focus on electronic commerce, market information processing, organization and strategy, and management decision making. George M. Zinkhan is the Coca-Cola Company Chair of Marketing at the University of Georgia. After receiving his doctorate at the University of Michigan, he served on the faculty at both the University of Houston and the University of Pittsburgh. His main research focus is on the areas of communication, advertising, and electronic commerce. His recent coauthored books includeElectronic Commerce: A Strategic Perspective (2000) andConsumers (2002).     

On supply-constrained equilibria

The paper gives sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium with price rigidities and quantity rationing where: (i) demand is never rationed; (ii) net trades of an a priori chosen numeraire are never rationed; and (iii) supply is rationed only when relative prices are downward rigid.     

A TEST OF A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STOCK OPTION PRICING MODEL

An empirical version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985a) call option pricing model is derived, assuming execution price uncertainty in the options market. the pricing restrictions come in the form of moment conditions in the option pricing error. These can be estimated and tested using a version of the method of simulated moments (MSM). Simulation estimates, obtained by discretely approximating the risk-neutral processes of the underlying stock price and the interest rate, are substituted for analytically unknown call prices. the asymptotics and other aspects of the MSM estimator are discussed. the model is tested on transaction prices at 15-minute intervals. It substantially outperforms the Black-Scholes model. the empirical success of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model implies that the continuous-time interest rate implicit in synchronous transaction quotes of 90-day Treasury-bill futures contracts is an-albeit noisy-proxy for the instantaneous volatility on common stock. the process of the instantaneous volatility is found to be close to nonstationary. It is well approximated by a heteroskedastic unit-root process. With this approximation, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model only slightly overprices long-maturity options.