Correlation in credit risk changes

The current economic climate makes understanding credit risk correlation particularly important. After allowing for a comprehensive set of observable firm-specific, industry, market, and macroeconomic factors, there is an economically significant co-movement in credit default swap spreads that remains to be explained. Including a time dummy completely accounts for the remaining co-movement, confirming the existence of a systematic component that has been previously unaccounted for. Our findings suggest that it may be important to consider unobservable risk factor(s) in credit risk models.     

基于3S技术的北京翠湖湿地生态环境质量评估

研究目的:评估北京翠湖湿地公园生态环境质量,为海淀区湿地发展提供经济决策参考.研究方法:采用技术手段(生态环境质量综合指数法)和理论分析相结合,构建翠湖湿地自然保护区生态环境质量评价指标体系.研究结果:翠湖湿地自然保护区分为核心区、缓冲区、过渡区或实验区和保护带,根据各功能区有区别地进行开发和保护.     

Developing Organizational Trust Through Advancement of Employees’ Work Ethic in a Post-Socialist Context

The paper highlights the dependence of the level of organizational trust on work ethic and aims to show that development of trust in organizations can be␣stimulated by raising the level of work ethic with organizational practices. Based on the framework by Kanungo, R. N. and A. M. Jaeger (1990, ‘Introduction: The Need for Indigenous Management In Developing Countries’, in A. M. Jaeger and R. N. Kanungo (eds.), Management in Developing Countries (Routledge, London), pp. 1–23), historical–cultural analysis of the Lithuanian context is carried out. The country is chosen as an example of a post-socialist context where work ethic and trust in the society tended to be rather low. The authors discuss organizational practices, particularly the ones related to people management, which can facilitate development of work ethic, and thus, trust in organizations operating in a post-socialist context. The importance of a processual approach to the development of organizational trust and the ethical content of organizational practices, which are aimed at developing organizational trust is highlighted. Directions for further research are indicated.     

编组站综合自动化系统总体框架的研究

在论述铁路编组站自动化的发展和有关概念的基础上,针对我国铁路编组站综合自动化存在的问题,提出构建具有设计一体化、信息共享化、控制集中化、决策智能化等特点的新一代编组站综合自动化系统。根据系统设计目标、原则和思路,研究了系统的总体功能架构、总控制流程、信息流程、自动化作业过程及模块间的关系,并对系统中的主要技术关键进行了分析阐述。     

OECD技能战略及启示

OECD 2012年发布的《技能战略》提出:发展技能需要鼓励投资于技能提升,动态关联技能培训体系与人才市场,保障技能培训的全面性,实施技能提升的开放策略;激活技能供应需要促进青年人职业发展、传统失业人群向劳务市场提供技能,防止技能因闲置而过时,留住劳务市场技术熟练人员;有效利用技能需要人们就业稳定,技能信息透明,区域内部劳动力市场流通,经济向附加值链上方移动。依据OECD的《技能战略》,中国需要构建全方位的技能政策体系获取人力资源红利,搭建"政产学研用"技能人才培养平台促进科技创新,完善技能信息透明的通道促进技能匹配,实行技能人才贯通培养模式推动产业转型升级。     

内蒙古重要发展战略及政策效果分析

本文认为,改革开放以来,内蒙古自治区的重要区域发展战略一直以资源优势为依托,进行产业布局和产业结构调整,取得了一定成效,但总观全区经济发展,其中存在着深层问题,经济总量偏小,城乡居民收入水平偏低;经济增长方式粗放,结构性矛盾突出;城镇化发展不合理,规模小,管理水平低;科技教育总体落后,劳动者素质不高;生态环境压力较大,基础设施建设滞后。文章提出,要更加注重资源节约与综合利用,努力建设资源节约型社会,继续走资源优势转变为经济优势之路,实现经济的可持续发展。要加大基础设施、生态保护与环境建设力度,发展产业集群,加快产业结构升级,努力实现资源产业的可持续发展。     

黄金周旅游拥挤现象分析——从旅游线路设计的角度

黄金周旅游拥挤现象由来已久,大量学者从不同的角度探讨了这个问题。但是,从旅游线路设计的角度探讨拥挤现象的文章较少。本文通过对旅游线路的定量分析,得出旅游线路设计与拥挤的内在机理:线路设计主要是以游览观光为目的,对每个景点的游览时间较少,旅游天数增加而景点的游览时间不增加时,游览景点的数量必然增加;旅游线路的设计倾向于选择远距离的旅游目的地,从而使旅途时间相对增加,从而导致交通拥挤。全年20.33%的旅游人次集中在全年4.11%的天数中,旅游线路的设计中往往以知名度高的高级别旅游景点为目的地,旅游者必然过度集中,从而导致景点拥挤。     

利率变动周期与商业银行绩效的实证研究

利率风险的计量、评估、监控是银行市场风险管理的重要内容。科学分析利率波动与银行收益之间关系,进而了解银行资产负债期限特征及利率风险管理水平,对实现我国商业银行资产负债管理科学决策,提升利率风险管理水平意义重大。本文采用Flannery的部分调整模型对我国上市银行的利率风险管理进行长时间窗口实证分析,结果表明:样本银行呈“借短贷长”的资产负债期限特征,利率变动期内其资产负债管理并未为银行带来实质收益,利率风险管理水平有待提高。     

浅谈韩国时装的设计特点——以女装为例

在我国服装设计方向发展不断成长的今天,韩国的服装行业却已经十分的成熟,并且因其鲜明的设计风格在我国市场上引起了广泛关注和认可,究其热度不减的原因,主要取决于其独特风格定位和巧妙的设计手法。本文通过对韩国设计师的作品从适合亚洲女性体形的服装款式,多变的色彩对比模式,材料和风格的混搭等多方面进行分析研究,归纳韩国时装的设计特点为我国服装设计风格的形成起到启迪、参考和辅助的作用。     

Do dividend initiations signal a reduction in risk? Evidence from the option market

We investigate whether dividends convey information about the risk of a company by examining the reaction of implied volatility in the option market to the announcement of a dividend initiation. Implied volatility decreases after the announcement and the magnitude of the decline in volatility is positively related to both the magnitude of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) in the equity markets and the size of the dividend. Additionally, firms with weaker (stronger) corporate governance experience larger (smaller) declines in implied volatility. Cross sectional analysis shows that a one-standard deviation decline in measures of risk increases the 2-day CAR by 74–137 basis points. Our results suggest that dividend initiations signal declining firm risk.