ICT-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom

This paper analyses the impact of rapid technological change in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector on economic growth in the United Kingdom. We find that technological progress specific to the ICT sector accounts for around 20–30% of long-run labor productivity growth. We demonstrate that a permanent increase in the growth rate of ICT-specific technological progress will increase the investment expenditure share of GDP but lower the aggregate depreciation rate, while an increase in the return to investment in ICT will increase both the expenditure share and the depreciation rate.     

Bank consolidation and new business formation

As the trend of bank consolidation activities continues to grow in the US and globally, the debate on the impact of such consolidation on small business credits and activities are still inconclusive. Building on the existing research [Berger, A.N., Saunders, A., Scalise, J.M., Udell, G.F., 1998. The effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on small business lending. Journal of Financial Economics 50, 187–229]; [Black, S.E., Strahan, P.E., 2002. Entrepreneurship and bank credit availability. Journal of Finance LVII (6), 2807–2833], this paper investigates the effects of the actual intensity of bank consolidation on the formation of new businesses in the US local markets. Evidence portrays that in the short-run, the overall intensity of bank consolidation is negatively related to the rate of new business formation, and this negative relationship is primarily driven by consolidations initiated by large acquirers. On the contrary, consolidations between small-to-medium sized banks show a positive impact on new business development and these results are consistent even when the M&As are distinguished with respect to in-market or out-of-market acquirers initiating the deals. However, two years after the consolidations, the evidence reveals a positive and significant impact on the rate of new business formation in the local markets for consolidations initiated by large in-market acquirers.     

Stock returns,inflation and interest rates in the United Kingdom

The Fisherian theory of interest asserts that a fully perceived change in inflation would be reflected in nominal interest rates and stock returns in the same direction in the long run. This paper examines the Fisherian hypothesis of asset returns using alternative techniques of linear regression, and vector error correction models to examine the nature of the relationship between stock returns and inflation in the UK. Consistent with the Fisherian hypothesis, empirical evidence in the linear regression model suggests a positive and statistically significant relationship between stock returns and inflation, which regards common stock as a good hedge against inflation. The results based on the unit root and cointegration tests indicate a long-run reliable relationship between price levels, share prices, and interest rates which could be interpreted as the long-run determinants of stock returns. The findings also suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. The evidence of a significant Fisher effect is robust across model specifications.     

The effects of two directions of conflict and facilitation on frontline employees’ job outcomes

This study investigated the effects of two directions of conflict and facilitation simultaneously on job performance, job satisfaction, and affective organisational commitment based on data obtained from frontline hotel employees in Northern Cyprus. As expected, family–work conflict dimished job performance, while family–work facilitation enhanced job performance. Contrary to our prediction, conflict between work and family domains intensified job performance. The results of the path analysis revealed that work–family facilitation increased job satisfaction, while family–work facilitation triggered affective organisational commitment. The findings pertaining to the relationships between job performance, job satisfaction, and affective organisational commitment were in the hypothesised directions. Also, the results of the confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that the four-factor model that consisted of work–family conflict, family–work conflict, work–family facilitation, and family–work facilitation was superior compared with other models tested. Implications of the empirical findings and their future research directions are discussed in our study.     

The process of technical change in UK manufacturing

This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.     

The prices of silver and exchange rates in a metallic monetary system—the cases of India and Iran

Using the notion of co-integration theory and a vector error correction modelling approach, this paper examines in retrospect the long-run relationship between the exchange rate of silver-based currencies and the intrinsic value of silver in India and Iran in a bivariate model. The results based on unit root and co-integration tests indicate a reliable long-run relationship between the price of silver and the exchange rate of silver-based currencies. Our findings also suggest a bi-directional relationship between the price of silver and exchange rate of pound per rupee in the case of India and a feedback relationship between the intrinsic value of qiran and the exchange rate of pound per qiran in the case of Iran.

Trade liberalization and unemployment: Theory and evidence from India

A widely held view among the public is that trade liberalization increases unemployment. Using state and industry-level unemployment and trade protection data from India, we find no evidence of any unemployment increasing effect of trade reforms. In fact, our state-level analysis reveals that urban unemployment declines with trade liberalization in states with flexible labor markets and larger employment shares in net exporter industries. Moreover, our industry-level analysis indicates that workers in industries experiencing greater reductions in trade protection were less likely to become unemployed, especially in net export industries. Our results can be explained within a theoretical framework incorporating trade and search-generated unemployment and some institutional features of the Indian economy.     

南疆铁路沿线地区城市化与城市生态环境评价研究

城市化与城市生态环境之间存在着一定的关系.近年来,特别是南疆铁路西延工程全线贯通并投入正式营运以后,铁路对穿越城镇并铁路沿线周边城镇的发展带来了很好的机遇,促进了该区域的经济的发展及城镇化,同时该区域的城镇生态环境也发生了很大的变化.本文在南疆铁路沿线四个城市的2000、2006、2008年统计资料的基础上,首先运用综合评价方法对南疆四城市的城市化水平进行了综合评价,然后分析了南疆四个城市的城市生态环境情况,最后对城镇化与城市生态环境之间的关系进行了分析.结果表明,2000年以来,南疆铁路沿线四城市的城市化水平相对于2000年具有上升趋势.库尔勒市的生态环境水平与城市化水平之间有协调发展特征,但其它三个城市的生态环境水平与城市化水平之间存在不协调发展情况.因此,必须加强阿克苏市、阿图什市、喀什市的城市生态环境的保护工作以促进城市生态环境与城市化水平的协调发展.     

Dynamic linkages between the center and periphery in international stock markets

This paper examines the dynamic linkages between the equity market of US representing the center and emerging markets using the Granger-causality test. The findings show that causality runs from the S&P500 to the stock prices of the 15 emerging markets but not vice versa.