STOCK RETURNS AND OPTION PRICES: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

This study is an investigation of estimates of expected stock returns implicit in option data. The Lee-Rao-Auchmuty option valuation model provides a unique opportunity to examine whether return measurements derived by nonlinear estimation techniques show any correlation with future stock returns. During the short period covered in this study, the Lee-Rao-Auchmuty estimates give preliminary indications that they are better predictors of actual stock returns than are estimates obtained from historical data.     

The unintended consequences of PCAOB auditing Standard Nos. 2 and 3 on the reliability of preliminary earnings releases

Implementation of Public Company Accounting Oversight Board Auditing Standards No. 2 on internal control and No. 3 on documentation has delayed audit completion. However, due to market demand for timely disclosures, most firms maintain the same preliminary earnings release date even though the audit may not be complete as of that date. Results indicate revisions to preliminary announcements when filing the 10-K report would have been 35% lower during 2005 if the historical frequency of issuing earnings releases after the audit report date had not changed. Additionally, stock market reaction to impending revisions suggests lower reliability of preliminary earnings.     

Log-concavity and monotonicity of hazard and reversed hazard functions of univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions

This paper establishes the log-concavity property of several forms of univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions. This property is then used to prove the monotonicity of the hazard as well as reversed hazard functions. The log-concavity and monotonicity of the hazard and reversed hazard functions of series and parallel systems of components is then discussed. The corresponding results for the multivariate normal distribution follow readily as special cases.     

Does modern endogenous growth theory adequately represent Allyn Young?

Endogenous growth theory is now fashionable. It seeks to explainwhy per capita income growth in capital abundant countries isoften faster than in capital poor countries and defies the operationof diminishing returns. This theory, which took off with Romerand Lucas, often makes Allyn Young's concept of increasing returnsand Marshall's distinction between internal and external economiesits starting point but considers their treatment of the subjectas not sufficiently rigorous. The modern endogenous growth theoriststhen claim to explain what they had in mind with greater clarity,rigour and depth. This paper argues that this is not the caseas these theorists actually misrepresent Young in importantways.     

Monotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum in bivariate distributions

It is well known that in the case of independent random variables, the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum of two random variables is the sum of the individual (reversed) hazard rates and hence the onotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the marginals is preserved by the monotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum. However, for the bivariate distributions this property is not always preserved. In this paper, we study the monotonicity of the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum for two well known families of bivariate distributions viz the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) and Sarmanov family. In case of the FGM family, we obtain the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum and provide several examples in some of which the (reversed) hazard rate is monotonic and in others it is non-monotonic. In the case of Sarmanov family the (reversed) hazard rate of the (maximum) minimum may not be expressed in a compact form in general. We consider some examples to illustrate the procedureResearch of the second author is supported by a grant from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the research of the other two authors is partially supported by a travel grant from the Canadian American Center of the University of Maine     

CEO Stock Options and Equity Risk Incentives

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the risk incentive effects of CEO stock option grants motivate managers to take on more risk than they would otherwise. Using a sample of mergers we document that the ratio of post‐ to pre‐merger stock return variance is positively related to the risk incentive effect of CEO stock option compensation but this relationship is conditioned on firm size, with firm size having a moderating effect on the risk incentive effect of stock options. Using a broader time‐series cross‐sectional sample of firms we find a strong positive relationship between CEO risk incentive embedded in the stock options and subsequent equity return volatility. As in the case of the merger sample, this relationship is stronger for smaller firms.     

Debt problems of developing countries

Much concern has been expressed in recent years over the mounting debt burden of developing countries. The increasing amounts of loans and their hardening terms have in many cases led to external debt servicing problems of alarming magnitudes. The following contribution addresses itself to evaluating these problems.     

Integration and underdevelopment in the Commonwealth Caribbean

While the integration process in the Caribbean Community and Common Market (Caricom) has only been in force for a few years, it is, in the author’s view, clear that the narrow free trade approach used so far will not be able to deal with the widening gap between the better-off and the less well-off member states or to provide a solution to fundamental problems facing the region as a whole.     

Residents’ perspectives of a newly developed ecotourism project: an assessment of effectiveness through the lens of an importance–performance analysis

Understanding the perceived importance and performance of various components of ecotourism to residents living in the area it is undertaken is crucial to the overall success of an ecotourism development project. This study examines residents’ perceptions of the importance and performance of ecotourism components (i.e. environmental conservation, economic wellbeing, promotion of local arts and culture, local participation, and fair share of resources), including overall ecotourism development, at the Gaurishankar Conservation Area (GCA) – a recently implemented ecotourism development project in Nepal. This study also examines the effect of socio-demographic, economic, and psychological factors on a perceived gap between the importance and the performance of ecotourism components. Findings suggest that the ecotourism development project at the GCA should concentrate on improving the economic wellbeing of residents, and on overall ecotourism development. Findings also suggest that residents’ inclusion in benefit-sharing mechanisms was associated with a reduced perceived gap between the importance and performance of ecotourism components. A comparison among different geographical segments of residents indicated that the perceived gap between importance and performance varies across different locations.