From edgeworth to fisher to vickrey: A comment on Michael J. Boskin's Vickrey lecture

Irving Fisher has been overlooked as an influence on William Vickrey's work on taxation and as a link between Edgeworth and Vickrey. Vickrey was Fisher's last and greatest student.     

Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation

The paper examines a long–run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross–country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa–Samuelson "productivity hypotheisis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods.     

Economics and underdetermination: a case study of urban land and housing economics

Underdetermination, associated with the Duhem–Quine thesis,is a familiar if under-researched theme in economics. In thelight of this, we examine the development of urban land andhousing economics. Through its Cartesian dualistic delineationof theory and data, the contemporary mainstream approach appearsunable to circumvent the problem of underdetermination. In effect,it employs the strong version of Duhem–Quine in its retentionof the assumption of a single, unitary competitive market (andassociated access–space trade-off). Conversely, we highlightthe affinity of Ely's (and the later Columbia School's) approachto pragmatists Dewey and Peirce, which provides a more fruitfulbasis for explanation.     

Shopping from a List: International Studies of Consumer Online Experiences

In response to the growth of online shopping, consumer groups from around the world participated in two mystery shopping exercises. These exercises, conducted during the Christmas holiday seasons of 1998 and 2000, involved buying a variety of products from web sites located both domestically and abroad. A number of serious problems were identified within the research, especially lack of disclosure of key consumer information and failures in delivering goods and refunding consumers when goods were returned. The research has been used by consumer organizations to enhance consumer education and to lobby governmental and self-regulatory bodies for greater consumer protection in the online environment.     

Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches

On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we have experimented with four different approaches to estimate the synthetic euro's equilibrium exchange rate. Using a number of competing models with the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from an empirical (different estimates) and a theoretical viewpoint (different specifications). In this exercise, the 'Rest of the World' is proxied by the US, the UK, Japan and Switzerland, aggregated on the basis of trade weights.
We employed reduced form co–integration models, a structural VAR, a NATREX model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small–sized euro area wide macro–econometric model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level.     

Inferential Causal Models: Integrating Quality & Quantity

In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed.     

Estimating the effectiveness of extension information systems using farm trials and subjective probabilities

A method of combining survey data and Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) records to achieve low cost farm trials is presented. Farm trials and surveys of current practices and production responses are useful to identify yield gaps between expectations predicted from experimental findings and actual field results. Different management schemes can be ranked using subjective probabilities and stochastic dominance to enhance successful implementation of research findings and to increase the feedback between researchers, extension workers, and producers. A survey of current masitis control practices and expected milk yield response is the example. Combining survey results with DHIA records allowed estimating the relationship between somatic cell counts (SCC) and milk yield. Eliciting beliefs about the relationship between SCC and milk yield showed that producers agreed with predictions from the statistical model. Subjective probabilities about SCC and mastitis control practices showed that our sample of experts and producers consistently ranked the different practices but extension agents had no consensus about the the most or least effective ones.     

Why managers divest—Evidence from New Zealand's largest companies

Chief Executives from New Zealand's largest companies were surveyed to distinguish divesting and nondivesting companies, and to identify the relative importance of the factors and motives which led to the divestment of 208 business units in the period 1985 through 1990. The divesting companies were considerably larger and faster growing than nondivestors. The typical divestment was motivated by the need to convert unattractive assets into liquid form which could then be held to strengthen the balance sheet, or reinvested in either the core business or new areas.