Inferring repeated-game strategies from actions: evidence from trust game experiments

Summary. Combining a strategy model, an inference procedure and a new experimental design, we map sequences of observed actions in repeated games to unobserved strategies that reflect decision-makers’ plans. We demonstrate the method by studying two institutional settings with distinct theoretical predictions. We find that almost all strategies inferred are best responses to one of the inferred strategies of other players, and in one of the settings almost all of the inferred strategies, which include triggers to punish non-cooperators, are consistent with equilibrium strategies. By developing a method to infer unobserved repeated-game strategies from actions, we take a step toward making game theory a more applied tool, bridging a gap between theory and observed behavior.Received: 23 December 2002, Revised: 19 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C80, C90.The authors are indebted for discussions with Ray Battalio, David Cooper, Robin Dubin, John Duffy, Ellen Garbarino, Susan Helper, Margaret Meyer, John Miller, Jim Rebitzer, Mari Rege, Al Roth, and John Van Huyck. The authors also benefited from discussants at economic department seminars at Case Western Reserve, McMaster and McGill University, University of Pittsburgh, SUNY-Stony Brook, and Texas A&M, and participants at the 2002 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society. We are grateful for the financial support provided by the Department of Economics at the University of Pittsburgh and Case Western Reserve University.     

Complexity, Governance and Constitutional Craftsmanship

Economic policy is commonly treated as a vehicle for selecting among possible allocative outcomes within an economy. An economy, however, is a complex network of relationships whose patterns can be understood but whose details can be neither predicted nor controlled. Because of this complexity, allocative outcomes are not direct objects of choice. They are simply emergent consequences of human interaction that takes place within some framework of governing rules and conventions. All economic policy can do is modify some of the rules that govern this interaction. Economic policy is thus constitutive and not allocative in character, being centrally involved in shaping the character of the regime that governs our relationships with each other.     

Working While the World Sleeps: A Consideration of Sleep and Shift Work Design

The evolution of society and economic pressure has provided the impetus for operating on a 24-hr basis in many industries. This has occurred with relatively little attention toward sleep deprivation and related problems facing shift workers and the organizations employing them. This paper first documents the move toward shift work and some sleep problems associated with it. We then describe sleep disorders that impact job performance. Next, we describe alternative schedules and give suggestions for shift work implementation. Finally, we offer some normative advice regarding the treatment of shift employees.     

TRANSFERABLE STOCK OPTIONS (TSOS) AND THE COMING REVOLUTION IN EQUITY-BASED PAY

The dominant form of equity pay in the U.S. will change dramatically when accounting rules are changed (most likely in 2005) to require companies to charge the cost of their stock option plans on their income statements. Many companies are already switching from stock options to other forms of equity pay, especially restricted stock. The most notable switcher was Microsoft, the world's largest user of stock option pay. In July 2003, partnering with J.P. Morgan, Microsoft created a onetime transferable stock option (TSO) program that allowed holders of underwater Microsoft options to sell their options to J.P. Morgan in return for restricted shares.
But the most important consequence of this transaction may not be a widespread shift by corporate America to restricted shares, but rather the creation of a more costeffective kind of stock option. By clearing the potentially messy hurdles involving taxes, accounting, SEC rules, and "transaction mechanics," Microsoft has opened the door for TSOs to be considered as an ongoing equitypay instrument, perhaps replacing standard stock options (which are not transferable). TSOs share the key advantages of restricted stock in terms of providing robust retention and ownership incentives and higher valuecost efficiency, while maintaining the key "leverage" advantage of options. In so doing, they create significant upside (and downside) while largely avoiding the "pay for pulse" problem of restricted stock. They also introduce the discipline of competitive pricing by third-party bidders. The bid prices of investment banks create nearly all of the information required for accurate estimates of option cost, which should foster greater board accountability and improved corporate governance.     

The Impacts of Unemployment on Alternative Poverty Rates

The analysis uses March Current Population Survey data to estimate state-level cross-section/time-series models of the effects of the unemployment rate on alternative poverty rates. The measures include the official headcount rate, and alternatives based higher thresholds, revised equivalence scales and income defined as inclusive and exclusive of taxes and cash and in-kind transfers. The estimated effects turn critically on the measurement approaches, both for the total sample population and for four population sub-groups. For several alternative poverty rate measures, the unemployment rate has no significant impact on poverty. By contrast, real per-capita median earnings have strong and consistently negative effects on the poverty rates of all groups studied. The findings thus provide important lessons for researchers exploring the links between economic conditions and poverty, and for policy makers developing poverty reduction strategies.     

中国"以电子政务拉动信息产业发展"政策的再评估

电子政务是中国信息化战略的重中之重，但其实际发展与预期间存在着明显差距。本文以中国“以电子政务拉动信息产业发展”政策为研究重点，把这一政策放在中国信息化历史中加以考察，分析中国信息化新阶段ICT市场的新变化和新挑战，针对电子政务实践与预期间的差距，对该政策提出我们的看法。     

A Proposed Arbitration Mechanism to Ensure Free Trade in Livestock Products

Trade negotiations between Canada and the United States are to begin in the near future. For there to be an ongoing free movement of commodities the question of nontariff barriers must be addressed in the negotiations. Livestock commodities are particularly prone to nontariff barriers due to the public health aspects of domestic regulations and the perishability of the products. Potential nontariff barriers in livestock and meat products are identified and the problems of normal negotiation procedures outlined. A proposal for an arbitration mechanism for the settlement of disputes is developed. It's essential elements are pre-approval of changes to regulations, extremely short arbitration periods and decentralized adjudication.
Les négociations de commerce entre le Canada et les États-Unis commenceront bientôt. Pour avoir un mouvement continuel des denrées, la question des barrières nontarifaires doit être adressée dans les négotiations. Les denrées bestiaux sont particulièrement portées aux barrières nontarifaires à cause des aspects de la santé publique dans les régulations domestiques et la nature périssable des produits. On identifie les barrières nontarifaires potentielles en des produits bestiaux et de viande. On indique aussi les problèmes avec les processus de négotiation normale. Une proposition pour un mécanisme d'arbitrage pour la résolution des disputes est developpée. Les elements essentiels de cette proposition sont l'approbation en avance des changements aux régulations, les périodes d'arbitration très courtes et les prononcements de jugements décentralisés.     

Women's relative wage rate in The Netherlands, 1950–1983: A test of alternative discrimination theories

Summary This article presents the results of an inquiry into the relationship that is to be expected on theoretical grounds between women's wage rate compared to men's on the one hand and some macroeconomic variables on the other. Becker's discrimination theory is confronted with alternative theories. On the base of data for the Netherlands the authors investigate which theory is most suited to explain the development of women's relative wage rate for the period 1950–1983. They conclude that the results of the empirical analysis predominantly support Becker's theory.The authors wish to thank Mr. R. Haagsma and Professor C.K.F. Nieuwenburg for their comments on an earlier draft of this article. Furthermore, they are grateful to Miss M.J.R. Key for computational assistance.     

PROCYCLICAL RETAIL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY*

The influence of lagged adjustment and consumer spending on retail labour productivity is investigated. Both influences result in a procyclical productivity pattern.     

Procedures for revising management judgments forecasts

Forecast improvement is often approached by attempting to find the “best” model for a given situation. Less attention has been paid to the possibility of examining past prediction errors for patterns that may suggest forecast adjustments for the future. This empirical study involves one firm’s management judgment forecasts for product sales and the attempts made to improve their accuracy by removing certain types of bias. In three of the five series examined, error reduction averaging close to thirty percent occurs as a result of the adjustment procedure. The other two series proved to be relatively free from bias and were therefore not in need of the correction method described.