Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models

We investigate the number of and reasons for errors and questionable judgments that sell-side equity analysts make in constructing and executing discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation models. For a sample of 120 DCF models detailed in reports issued by U.S. brokers in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that analysts make a median of three theory-related and/or execution errors and four questionable economic judgments per DCF. Recalculating analysts’ DCFs after correcting for major errors changes analysts’ mean valuations and target prices by between ?2 and 14 % per error. Based on face-to-face interviews with analysts and those who oversee them, we conclude that analysts’ DCF modeling behavior is semi-sophisticated in the sense that analysts genuinely make mistakes regarding certain aspects of correctly valuing equity but also respond rationally to the incentives they face, particularly the reality that they are not directly compensated for being textbook DCF correct.     

The impact of government intervention on the stabilization of domestic financial markets and on U.S. banks’ asset composition

The 2007–2009 financial crisis that evolved from various factors including the housing boom, aggressive lending activity, financial innovation, and increased access to money and capital markets prompted unprecedented U.S. government intervention in the financial sector. We examine changes in banks’ balance sheet composition associated with U.S. government intervention during the crisis. We find that the initial round of quantitative easing positively impacts bank liquidity across all bank samples. Our results show a positive impact of repurchase agreement market rates on bank liquidity for small and medium banks. We conclude that banks have become more liquid in the post-crisis period, especially the larger banks (large and money center banks). We show that real estate loan portfolio exposures have reverted to pre-crisis levels for money center banks and remained flat for all other bank samples.     

POLONIA dynamics during the years 2006–2012 and the effectiveness of the monetary Policy of the National Bank of Poland

In the study we investigate the effectiveness of the National Bank of Poland in counteracting the negative results of the financial crisis in the Polish interbank market. The situation was exceptional in a sense, that during the period of the financial crisis the Polish interbank market experienced liquidity surplus, and the main problem of the central bank was to regain confidence among commercial banks and stimulate interbank transactions. We concentrate on the spread between the rate of overnight interbank loans and the reference rate and based upon its dynamics we assess the monetary policy of the Polish central bank. Using econometric techniques we study how the central bank influenced the spread, when its control over it weakened and when was it strengthened. The study is supported by the results of the survey directed to the headquarters of commercial banks. We conclude that the ability of the central bank to control overnight rate was temporarily lost during the first phases of the financial crisis, but gradually regained after implementation of the confidence pact.     

Innovation behaviour of firms in a small open economy: the case of the Czech manufacturing industry

This paper describes the role of R&D and analyse its impact on productivity in the Czech economy in a CDM model. Four CIS waves (2001, 2003, 2006, and 2008) were used in the CDM model. The estimated low innovation input elasticity around 9 % describes the Czechs as poor innovators in the EU. This economy was a developing country until 2006 and we have observed a substantive FDI inflow since 1998. Multinationals have a higher sales share now and are an essential part of the economy. Multinationals engage less in innovation, but innovating MNEs spend more on R&D per employee and appropriate more from their innovated goods. The FDI inflow was a form of innovation wave. Innovation output is an important determinant for boosting productivity among SME’s. Public support had positive effect on innovation intensity; however, no additional effect on innovation output.     

The pricing of lookback options and binomial approximation

Refining a discrete model of Cheuk and Vorst, we obtain a closed formula for the price of a European lookback option at any time between emission and maturity. We derive an asymptotic expansion of the price as the number of periods tends to infinity, thereby solving a problem posed by Lin and Palmer. We prove, in particular, that the price in the discrete model tends to the price in the continuous Black–Scholes model. Our results are based on an asymptotic expansion of the binomial cumulative distribution function that improves several recent results in the literature.     

Relevance of the EU Banking Sector to Economic Growth

Using panel estimates and a sample including all 28 European Union (EU) countries, this paper seeks to improve upon the existing literature with empirical evidence on the role that banking institutions can play in promoting economic growth. Banking sector performance is proxied by relevant operational, capital, liquidity and asset quality financial ratios. Economic growth is represented by the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The estimations take into account the recent international financial crisis and consider three panels: one for the time period 1998–2012, a second one for the years before the crisis (1998–2006) and another for the subinterval 2007–2012. The results allow us to draw conclusions not only about the importance of the various financial ratios to economic growth but also regarding reactions to the recent crisis.