A Conceptual Framework for Quantitative Text Analysis

Quantitative text analysis refers tothe application of one or more methods for drawingstatistical inferences from text populations. Afterbriefly distinguishing quantitative text analysisfrom linguistics, computational linguistics, andqualitative text analysis, issues raised during the1955 Allerton House Conference are used as a vehiclefor characterizing classical text analysis as aninstrumental-thematic method. Quantitative textanalysis methods are then depicted according to a2 × 3 conceptual framework in which texts areinterpreted either instrumentally (according to theresearcher's conceptual framework) orrepresentationally (according to the texts' sources'perspectives), as well as in which variables arethematic (counts of word/phrase occurrences),semantic (themes within a semantic grammar), ornetwork-related (theme- or relation-positions withina conceptual network). Common methodological errorsassociated with each method are discussed. Thepaper concludes with a delineation of the universeof substantive answers that quantitative text analysisis able to provide to social science researchers.     

中国告别廉价劳动力时代

中国劳动力市场出现变化 多年来,永进集团(Yongjin Group)像美国的沃尔玛百货公司、家得宝公司(Home Depot)、Target公司和Pottery Barn公司一样出售电器和家具,并且获得了可观的利润.但是,最近它的利润率下降到5%,只有它14年前在南方城市东莞开设工厂时的利润的一半.原因是劳动力短缺正在迫使这家公司增加工资.去年,永进集团工人的工资增加了40%,平均每月达到160美元,但它仍然不能找到足够的劳动力.这家公司的总裁萨姆·林说:"我们的企业需要很多劳动力,目前的情况是一个非常严峻的挑战."     

Designing an immunized portfolio: Is M-squared the key?

The theoretical and empirical properties of M-squared, a measure of cash flow dispersion used in designing duration-hedged portfolios, are examined. Contrary to prior research, minimizing M-squared is not independent of the stochastic process and the minimum M-squared portfolio is a ‘bullet’ only under a specific, convexity condition derived in the paper.Using a data base of default-free, Government of Canada bonds to set up minimum M-squared, duration-matching portfolios, we find that the convexity property does not hold in general and that minimum M-squared portfolios fail to hedge as effectively as portfolios including a bond maturing on the horizon date.     

Forecasting Earnings Using Geographical Segment Data: Some UK Evidence

This study examines the question of whether or not the geographical segment data disclosed by UK companies can be used to generate forecasts of earnings that outperform forecasts based upon past consolidated data. One year ahead forecasts of attributable earnings or net income before extraordinary items are generated for both geographical sales data combined with a consolidated attributable earnings to sales margin and segmental earnings data. The forecasts are based upon forecasts of changes in the GNP of individual countries, both with and without the addition of forecasted inflation rates. It is found that models based upon both geographical segment sales and segment earnings outperform the random walk and random walk plus drift consolidated models for the years 1981 to 1983. The difference in the sizes of the errors generated by the segment data based models and the consolidated data based models are significant in the majority of cases especially when the errors are truncated at 100%. However, there is no additional advantage in terms of forecast accuracy in using segment earnings data rather than segment sales data.     

Perceptions of the political environment and top management orientations in Hong Kong public enterprises

Although the scope for unfettered private initiative in the Territory remains substantial, the degree of government economic intervention in Hong Kong is greater than is generally realised. Thus,inter alia and contrary to popular belief, public enterprise constitutes a noticeable segment of the local economy. In the present article, an attempt is made to draw some conclusions about this sector's characteristics on the basis of attitudinal data.Both authors are with the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong     

Investment in South Africa – a comment on recent contributions

This article questions the interpretation of investment made by Fedderke et al. in the October 2001 issue of Development Southern Africa, in particular the conclusion that the higher investment rates of manufacturing in the 1990s are associated with the reduction in state intervention. Rather than improved manufacturing investment, the striking feature of the 1990s is the low level of investment by the government and parastatals. After making a brief review of investment performance over the past decade, manufacturing investment at the sectoral level is assessed, highlighting the very large investments in heavy industries. It is state support in the form of development finance from the Industrial Development Corporation that underlies these patterns, and not the withdrawal of the state as argued by Fedderke et al.