Discretionary and Non-Discretionary Revisions of Loss Reserves by Property-Casualty Insurers: Differential Implications for Future Profitability, Risk and Market Value

We develop and estimate a PC-industry specific model in which proxies for both discretion and non-discretion are used to partition loss reserve revisions into discretionary and non-discretionary components. The use of such proxies enables us to test directional hypotheses about the relations between the revision components and future profitability, risk and market value. We predict and find that discretionary revisions are negatively associated with future profitability, positively associated with firm risk, and negatively associated with market-to-book ratios. We predict and find that non-discretionary revisions are positively associated with future profitability and risk but are not associated with market-to-book ratios.     

A rapid assessment of wildlife tourism risk posed to cetaceans in Asia

Dolphin-watching tourism is growing globally. In developing countries, the typically low environmental awareness of operators and poorly enforced or non-existent regulations exacerbate risks to wildlife. Ecological indicators like behavioural responses are useful to assess wildlife tourism, but obtaining such data is slow and expensive. We modified the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework to rapidly assess the risk of dolphin-watching tourism harming, displacing or causing local extinction to dolphin populations, using human dimension data to complement limited ecological data. We assessed industries at seven dolphin-watching sites in six countries in Asia: Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. All sites have reached or almost reached financial saturation except Cambodia and Malaysia. We find high risk to dolphins at the sites in India and Indonesia and intermediate risk at the site in Cambodia. Pending more ecological data, the risk at Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysian sites might be low. Our analysis also indicates site-specific conservation recommendations for Driver, Pressure and Response. We suggest that the DPSIR framework is useful to assess the risk of a wildlife watching industry, even when the impact is uncertain due to insufficient ecological data.     

旅游对传统村落的影响研究——以安徽齐云山为例

旅游影响一直是国内外旅游研究的重要课题,旅游地居民对旅游发展的感知是研究旅游影响的重要途径。此次调查以安徽省黄山市休宁县齐云山为例,采用问卷调查和现场访谈相结合的方式,运用SPSS、CATPACTM等软件对调查结果进行数理统计,从居民与游客角度分析了旅游开发给齐云山居民带来的经济、社会文化、环境的若干影响,以及居民对旅游业所持的态度。文章着重于探讨居民对于因旅游开发所带来的村落影响的感知,以及他们对于当前旅游影响的评测和对未来旅游发展的期待。     

BS in the boardroom: Benevolent sexism and board chair orientations

Research Summary: Though research has focused on the ascent and acceptance of female CEOs, the post‐promotion circumstances female CEOs face remain unclear. In this study, we focus on a critical post‐promotion circumstance: the board chair–CEO relationship. Drawing on the gender stereotype literature, agency theory, and stewardship theory, we posit that firms appointing a female CEO are more likely to adopt a collaboration board chair orientation and less likely to adopt a control orientation. We further predict this effect is attenuated by female board representation. Using a sample of new S&P 1500 CEOs, we find support for our predictions regarding the collaboration orientation but not the control orientation. This research provides some evidence of benevolent sexism in the boardroom, with female directors acting as a countervailing influence. Managerial Summary: Whereas the notion that females encounter a glass ceiling on their path toward CEO is well documented, the conditions female CEOs encounter after promotion are less understood. The relationship between the board chair and the CEO is one important post‐promotion condition. Board chairs can focus on monitoring and/or working together with the CEO. We suggest board chairs are more likely to work in close collaboration with female CEOs than with male CEOs. We attribute this to benevolent sexism, which explains that board chairs are more likely to collaborate with female CEOs because they view females as more conducive to, and in need of, this type of relationship. We also suggest this benevolent sexism is less prevalent when there are more females on the board.     

Dirichlet process mixture models for insurance loss data

In the recent insurance literature, a variety of finite-dimensional parametric models have been proposed for analyzing the hump-shaped, heavy-tailed, and highly skewed loss data often encountered in applications. These parametric models are relatively simple, but they lack flexibility in the sense that an actuary analyzing a new data-set cannot be sure that any one of these parametric models will be appropriate. As a consequence, the actuary must make a non-trivial choice among a collection of candidate models, putting him/herself at risk for various model misspecification biases. In this paper, we argue that, at least in cases where prediction of future insurance losses is the ultimate goal, there is reason to consider a single but more flexible nonparametric model. We focus here on Dirichlet process mixture models, and we reanalyze several of the standard insurance data-sets to support our claim that model misspecification biases can be avoided by taking a nonparametric approach, with little to no cost, compared to existing parametric approaches.     

Does it pay to ‘Be Like Mike’? Aspiratonal peer firms and relative performance evaluation

Review of Accounting Studies - We examine the manner and extent to which firms evaluate performance relative to aspirational peer firms. Guided by the predictions of an agency model, we find that...     

Game over? Assessing the impact of the emergence of a profitable wagering strategy in major league baseball wagering markets

Testing the impact of profitable investment strategies is often hampered by the practical difficulties of determining who knew what, and when. This study examines the impact of the publication of a profitable wagering strategy on the Major League Baseball wagering market. While standard measures of market efficiency characterized the Major League Baseball win–loss moneyline market to be efficient, previous works shows that wagering on underdogs early in the season can generate persistent profits. Though the overall efficiency of the baseball wagering market remained after publication, these profitable opportunities dissipated. Bettor behaviour is found to play varying roles across different wagering strategies; up to half of the drop in returns can be attributed to wagering market participant behaviour.