Debt reduction: the basis and shape of a new strategy

The burden of past restructuring of the external debt of developing countries has been distributed asymmetrically among creditors owing to the lack of incentives for voluntary debt reduction. “New creditors” have been deterred from lending voluntarily because their claims would inevitably be added to a mountain of bad debt. Therefore new ways of reducing debt and debt servicing must be found. Our authors suggest a process of concerted debt reduction designed to ensure that all the creditor banks involved play an equal part.     

Completeness,interconnectedness and distribution of interbank exposures—a parameterized analysis of the stability of financial networks

This paper assesses the impact of a certain structure of interbank exposures on the stability of a stylized financial system. Given a certain balance sheet structure of financial institutions, a large number of valid matrices of interbank exposures is created by a random generator. Assuming a certain loss given default, domino effects are simulated. The main results are, first, that financial stability depends not only on the completeness and interconnectedness of the network, but also on the distribution of interbank exposures within the system (measured by entropy). Second, looking at random graphs, the sign of the correlation between the degree of equality of the distribution of claims and financial stability depends on the connectivity of the financial system as well as on additional parameters that affect the vulnerability of the system to interbank contagion. Third, the more concentrated the assets are within a money center model, the less stable it is. Fourth, a money center model with asset concentration among core banks is less stable than a random graph with banks of homogeneous size.     

MAKING CARBON TAXATION A GENERATIONAL WIN WIN

Carbon taxation is mostly studied in social planner or infinitely lived‐agent models, which obscure carbon taxation's potential to produce a generational win win. This article's large‐scale, dynamic 55‐period, overlapping generations model calculates the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all current and future generations. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, increasing extraction costs, clean energy, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus' carbon/temperature/damage functions. Assuming high‐end carbon damages, the optimal carbon tax is $70, rising annually at 1.5%. This policy raises all generations' welfare by almost 5%. However, doing so requires major intergenerational redistribution.     

Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?

This article suggests an alternative explanation for why resource-rich economies have lower growth rates: because they are likely to be living beyond their means. It is shown that overshooting the steady state's equilibrium consumption and investment can be optimal in a Ramsey growth model with natural resources. Therefore, the economy will converge to its steady state from above, displaying negative growth rates on the transition. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to the Venezuelan economy and shown to approximate the economy's performance over the oil boom years adequately.     

Stagflation is Back

Three decades ago, in a bleak stretch of the 1970s, an economic phenomenon emerged that was as ugly as its name: stagflation. It was the sound of the     

The timing Of Exchange Regime Collapse Under Capital Controls

This paper investigation the Nature of balance-of payments crises in regimes with capital controls. It extends earlier works on Capital controls by assuming that households manage their consumption and asset portfolios to maximize intertemporal utility. Our main result is that capital controls are effectives in delaying, but not preventing, a breakdown of a fixed exchange rate regime in the presence of money- financed deficits. [F31]     

Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in a Model of Monopolistic Competition

The paper introduces differences in production and transaction conditions between countries into a model of monopolistic competition. It applies inframarginal analysis to show that, as transaction conditions are improved, the general equilibrium may jump discontinuously across different patterns of trade and economic development. A country may export a good in which it has exogenous comparative disadvantage if its endogenous comparative advantage dominates this disadvantage. Countries will choose a trade and development pattern to utilize their net exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages in production as well as in transactions.     

An update on reform in Eastern Europe and Russia

The paper reviews the experience of Poland and Russia with economic reform, with occasional comparison to China's experience. The author argues that macroeconomic chaos in Poland and Russia preceded reform and was allayed by reform; that there is no necessary tradeoff between reform and growth; and that the Polish and Russian experience shows that it is possible to create clear property rights quickly.