The drift factor in biased futures index pricing models: A new look

The presence of bias in index futures prices has been investigated in various research studies. Redfield ( 11 ) asserted that the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract traded on the U.S. Cotton Exchange (now the FINEX division of the New York Board of Trade) could be systematically arbitraged for nontrivial returns because it is expressed in so‐called “European terms” (foreign currency units/U.S. dollar). Eytan, Harpaz, and Krull ( 4 ) (EHK) developed a theoretical factor using Brownian motion to correct for the European terms and the bias due to the USDX index being expressed as a geometric average. Harpaz, Krull, and Yagil ( 5 ) empirically tested the EHK index. They used the historical volatility to proxy the EHK volatility specification. Since 1990, it has become more commonplace to use option‐implied volatility for forecasting future volatility. Therefore, we have substituted option implied volatilities into EHK's correction factor and hypothesized that the correction factor is “better” ex ante and therefore should lead to better futures model pricing. We tested this conjecture using twelve contracts from 1995 through 1997 and found that the use of implied volatility did not improve the bias correction over the use of historical volatility. Furthermore, no matter which volatility specification we used, the model futures price appeared to be mis‐specified. To investigate further, we added a simple naïve δ based on a modification of the adaptive expectations model. Repeating the tests using this naïve “drift” factor, it performed substantially better than the other two specifications. Our conclusion is that there may be a need to take a new look at the drift‐factor specification currently in use. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:579–598, 2002     

The Pervasiveness And Trajectory Of Methodological Choices: A 20‐Year Review Of Human Resource Management Research

This article examines the methodological choices of researchers studying the HR practices–outcome relationship via a content analysis of 281 studies published across the past 20 years. The prevalence and trajectory of change over time are reported for a wide range of methodological choices relevant to internal, external, construct, and statistical conclusion validity. While the results indicate a high incidence of potentially problematic cross‐sectional, single‐informant, and single‐level designs, they also reveal significant improvements over time across many validity relevant methodological choices. This broad‐based improvement in the methodological underpinnings of HR research suggests that researchers and practitioners can view the findings reported in the HR literature with increasing confidence. Directions for future research are provided. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Do Opportunities for Formal Learning Stimulate Follow‐Up Participation in Informal Learning? A Three‐Wave Study

Informal learning is an important source of employee adaptability and expertise, yet it is unclear how it may be encouraged through human resource management (HRM) practices. In this study, we investigate how opportunities for formal learning may be used to stimulate short‐ and long‐term participation in informal learning. In addition, we examine whether HRM system strength intensifies the relationship between opportunities for formal learning and informal learning. Using a sample of 430 respondents in 52 teams within six Dutch vocational and educational training schools, we adopt a longitudinal design to examine two types of autonomous informal learning activities (reflection and keeping up to date), and three collaborative activities (asking for feedback, knowledge sharing and innovative behavior) over two years. Opportunity for formal learning was positively related to short‐ and long‐term participation in informal learning activities, with the exception of long‐term innovation. Moreover, HRM system strength intensified these relationships. Managerial implications of these findings for encouraging informal learning activities at work are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Buying bad behavior: Tournament incentives and securities class action lawsuits

Research summary: Tournament theory suggests that a large gap in pay between CEOs and top managers can provide incentives to perform, but we argue that it can also elicit negative effort and even motivate the kind of behavior that leads to lawsuits. We posit that this negative effort is greater when firms have high levels of unrelated diversification because there is less operational interdependency, so tournament effects are stronger. We also contend that the influence of tournament incentives on behavior leading to lawsuits is weaker when environmental uncertainty is high. We discuss the consequences of these findings for research on fraud and tournament theory as well as the practical repercussions for firms, investors, and policymakers. Managerial summary : Each year, the press has a field day when companies announce the outsized compensation packages laid out for CEOs. Economists use “tournament theory” to describe how high CEO pay motivates everyone else to work hard to get into the top job. The problem with this approach is that, yes, top managers work harder when the gap between their and the CEO's pay increases, but as that gap widens, it also incentivizes top managers to cheat or cut corners. As a result, we find that the gap between CEO and top manager compensation predicts the likelihood that shareholders will file a securities class action lawsuit against the company. This gap in pay is an especially good predictor of lawsuits for highly unrelated diversified companies and companies facing a low level of external uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial and Institutional Reforms for an Entrepreneurial Society

In this paper, we introduce the special issue on Financial and Institutional Reforms for an Entrepreneurial Society in Europe. There are many reasons for Europe to want to make the transition to a more Entrepreneurial Society. And for decades now, policy makers are trying to bring that transition about with variations on the “educate, deregulate and finance” approach to entrepreneurship. We argue that more fundamental reforms are required to improve the entrepreneurial ecosystem and bring about this transition. We then discuss the 12 contributions that pertain to five different facets of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The first two papers address the most fundamental institutional foundations of the ecosystem. The next three papers discuss the (lack of) access to knowledge and incentives to start innovative entrepreneurial ventures. That is followed by three papers that focus on the institutions that (fail to) channel financial resources to such ventures and two papers that analyze the relevance of labor market institutions. The special issue concludes with two papers investigating how the interplay of institutions and productive entrepreneurship results in economic growth.     

Wage Divergence and Asymmetries in Unemployment in a Model with Biased Technical Change

In an attempt to explain the different wage and unemployment responses in mainland Europe and the US to a fall in demand for low-skilled labour, we present a model with two levels of skills and two classes of goods. We analyse the response to skill-biased technical change in two distinct labour market regimes. A trade-off between wage divergence and unemployment of skilled and unskilled workers occurs. Skill-biased technical change turns out to have a different impact in both regimes, due to a different working of the chimney effect.     

List Prices,Sale Prices and Marketing Time: An Application to U.S. Housing Markets

Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this article, we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers’ distribution of potential offers for a good, we assume that the greater the list price, the slower the arrival rate of offers but the greater is the maximal offer. This trade‐off determines the optimal list price, which is set simultaneously with the seller's reservation price. Comparative statics are derived through a set of numerical sensitivity tests, where we show that the greater the variance of the distribution of buyers’ potential offers, the greater is the ratio of the list price to expected sales price. Thus, sellers of atypical goods will tend to set a relatively high list price compared with standard goods. We test this hypothesis using data from the Columbus, Ohio, housing market and find substantial support. We also find empirical support for another hypothesis of the model: atypical dwellings take longer to sell.     

IMMIGRANT WAGE GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES: THE ROLE OF OCCUPATIONAL UPGRADING

Immigrants to the United States routinely take jobs below their skill qualifications because of barriers to entering occupations. We use a structural model of immigrant job choice to quantify the benefits of potential policies to promote entry into suitable occupations. We estimate the model using longitudinal labor market data on immigrants to the United States. Our counterfactual results show that eliminating barriers to occupational entry would lead to only a small earnings increase for the average immigrant in our sample, but a substantial earnings increase for the most highly skilled immigrants.     

Work‐life support practices and customer satisfaction: The role of TMT composition and country culture

Despite the growing prevalence of work‐life support (WLS) practices in companies, there is a lack of theoretical and empirical clarity on their benefits to organizational performance. It is also unclear if the organizational performance effects of WLS practices vary based on an organization's internal and external environments. The dual objective of this paper is to investigate whether WLS practices relate to customer‐focused outcomes and, if so, under which conditions WLS practices yield benefits. Drawing on contingency theory, we examine how the boundary conditions of internal firm characteristics (e.g., percentage of top management team [TMT] members with children) and external environmental factors (e.g., gender egalitarianism of the country) moderate the relationship between WLS practices and customer satisfaction. We shed light on these issues by examining multisource, longitudinal data collected over three years from a multinational corporation operating in 27 countries. The results show that both percentage of TMT members with children and gender egalitarianism of the country strengthen the relationship between WLS practices and customer satisfaction. The findings provide insights into the circumstances when WLS practices provide performance benefits for firms and the translatability of these benefits from one country to another.