Identifiability of the misspecified split hazard models

Unlike standard models, a split population hazard model allows the exit probability to be less than one. Although conceptually attractive, split models are prone to identification problems. In the reduced form estimation of the hazard function, the influence of split may not be distinguishable from that of neglected heterogeneity. For illustration, I use Monte Carlo simulations to highlight the problem of interpreting the structural parameters of the split Weibull and the Weibull-gamma models.     

Does stardom affect the informativeness of a CEO's insider trades?

This study examines whether the celebrity or star status of a chief executive officer (CEO) affects the informativeness of his insider trades. Using three different measures to identify star CEOs in a sample of S&P 1500 firms, we find that trades of non‐star CEOs predict future abnormal returns and earnings innovations and that trades of star CEOs do not. The predictive power of non‐star CEO trades is mostly attributable to opportunistic trades, not routine trades. We also find evidence suggesting that the abnormal returns associated with non‐star CEO insider trades are due to the lower visibility and consequently less scrutiny of non‐star CEOs compared with star CEOs.     

Catering effects in corporate dividend policy: The international evidence

This study tests for the international presence of dividend catering across a sample of twenty-three countries. We find evidence of catering among firms incorporated in common law countries but not for those in civil law nations. Catering persists even after controlling for the effect of the firm’s lifecycle. We conclude that when the legal regime and its accompanying set of investor protections permit, investors force dividends from managers, but they also attempt to extract such payouts indirectly by placing a high value on dividend paying firms. The relative failure of civil law firms to cater might be explained by idiosyncratic behaviors in the consumption of the private benefits of control or a lack of interest in responding to temporary market misevaluations of their equity.     

Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: A General Approach

The relationship between affine stochastic processes and bondpricing equations in exponential term structure models has beenwell established. We connect this result to the pricing of interestrate derivatives. If the term structure model is exponentialaffine, then there is a linkage between the bond pricing solutionand the prices of many widely traded interest rate derivativesecurities. Our results apply to m-factor processes with n diffusionsand l jump processes. The pricing solutions require at mosta single numerical integral, making the model easy to implement.We discuss many options that yield solutions using the methodsof the article.     

Informed Trading around Merger Announcements: An Empirical Test Using Transaction Volume and Open Interest in Options Market

This paper provides empirical evidence on the level of trading activity in the stock options market prior to the announcement of a merger or an acquisition. Our analysis shows that there is a significant increase in the trading activity of call and put options for companies involved in a takeover prior to the rumor of an acquisition or merger. This result is robust to both the volume of option contracts traded and the open interest. The increased trading suggests that there is a significant level of informed trading in the options market prior to the announcement of a corporate event. In addition, abnormal trading activity in the options market appears to lead abnormal trading volume in the equity market. This finding supports the hypothesis that the options market plays an important role in price discovery.     

Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads

Models of financial distress rely primarily on accounting-based information (e.g. [Altman, E., 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23, 589–609; Ohlson, J., 1980. Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research 19, 109–131]) or market-based information (e.g. [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470]). In this paper, we provide evidence on the relative performance of these two classes of models. Using a sample of 2860 quarterly CDS spreads we find that a model of distress using accounting metrics performs comparably to market-based structural models of default. Moreover, a model using both sources of information performs better than either of the two models. Overall, our results suggest that both sources of information (accounting- and market-based) are complementary in pricing distress.     

Implied recovery

In the absence of forward-looking models for recovery rates, market participants tend to use exogenously assumed constant recovery rates in pricing models. We develop a flexible jump-to-default model that uses observables: the stock price and stock volatility in conjunction with credit spreads to identify implied, endogenous, dynamic functions of the recovery rate and default probability. The model in this paper is parsimonious and requires the calibration of only three parameters, enabling the identification of the risk-neutral term structures of forward default probabilities and recovery rates. Empirical application of the model shows that it is consistent with stylized features of recovery rates in the literature. The model is flexible, i.e. it may be used with different state variables, alternate recovery functional forms, and calibrated to multiple debt tranches of the same issuer. The model is robust, i.e. evidences parameter stability over time, is stable to changes in inputs, and provides similar recovery term structures for different functional specifications. Given that the model is easy to understand and calibrate, it may be used to further the development of credit derivatives indexed to recovery rates, such as recovery swaps and digital default swaps, as well as provide recovery rate inputs for the implementation of Basel II.     

The Firm's Management of Social Interactions

Consumer choice is influenced in a direct and meaningful way by the actions taken by others. These “actions” range from face-to-face recommendations from a friend to the passive observation of what a stranger is wearing. We refer to the set of such contexts as “social interactions” (SI). We believe that at least some of the SI effects are partially within the firm's control and that this represents an exciting research opportunity. We present an agenda that identifies a list of unanswered questions of potential interest to both researchers and managers. In order to appreciate the firm's choices with respect to its management of SI, it is important to first evaluate where we are in terms of understanding the phenomena themselves. We highlight five questions in this regard: (1) What are the antecedents of word of mouth (WOM)? (2) How does the transmission of positive WOM differ from that of negative WOM? (3) How does online WOM differ from offline WOM? (4) What is the impact of WOM? (5) How can we measure WOM? Finally, we identify and discuss four principal, non-mutually exclusive, roles that the firm might play: (1) observer, (2) moderator, (3) mediator, and (4) participant.     

Strategic loan modification: An options-based response to strategic default

This paper presents a parsimonious barrier model for the optimal principal reset in a loan modification, thereby maximizing the loan value to the lender bank and minimizing the likelihood of strategic foreclosure by the homeowner. Writing down the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio will reduce the present value of future payments on the loan, but will also reduce the probability of default, thereby saving foreclosure losses. The optimal trade-off of these two countervailing effects will pinpoint the optimal LTV at which the loan must be reset. We present a simple barrier option decomposition of the loan value that makes the optimization of LTV easy to implement. An extension of the model is shown to account for varying growth rate assumptions about house prices. The model in this paper specifically accounts for the homeowner’s willingness to pay, and uses the framework to model shared-appreciation mortgages (SAMs).