The prognosis and surveillance of risks from commercial credit borrowers

This paper reports the main results of an empirical research project dealing with the prognosis and surveillance of corporate credit risks. In the course of the research programme both quantitative (balance sheet analysis, current accounts data analysis) and qualitative (assessment of management) methods were applied. Each of the three parts of the project is independently usable However, the combined application of the three approaches avoids deficiencies of using only one of the components and improves the early detection of credit risks.     

Managed Care Incentives and Inpatient Complications

Managed care organizations control costs through restrictions on patient access to specialized services, oversight of treatment protocols, and financial incentives for providers. We investigate possible effects of such practices on the care patients receive by studying frequencies of in-hospital complications. We find significant differences in complication rates between managed care and fee-for-service patients. We investigate the sources of this variation by comparing probabilities of complications among patients with different types of managed care coverage and patients treated in different hospitals. For several patient categories, the differences in outcomes we find appear to arise not from differential treatment of patients within hospitals or from heterogeneity in patients, but from variations in care across hospitals that tend to treat patients with different insurance types.     

SAMPLING ERROR IN FIRST ORDER STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE

This study analyzes the standard method of testing for first order stochastic dominance from a statistical viewpoint and applies a boundary crossing algorithm to approximate the resulting error probabilities. Error probabilities can be estimated even when the two distributions are not equal. This approach, which is useful when large sample simulations are not feasible, helps clarify some of the unusual results obtained by Kroll and Levy in an earlier study.     

Evaluating inventive activity: the cost of nineteenth-century UK patents and the fallibility of renewal data

It has long been recognized that counting patents offers a poor gauge of the extent and value of inventive activity, not least because the quality of patented inventions varies enormously. The Schankerman-Pakes model provides a valuable alternative gauge that utilizes the data from renewal fees which are regularly paid to keep a patent in force. This article suggests, however, that the model's application to nineteenth-century UK patents may underestimate the value of Victorian inventive activity because many patentees lacked the financial resources to implement the rational choice that the model assumes. Focusing on steam-engineering patents, it explores further problems with renewal data and the increasing rate of lapsed applications.     

The Roles of Independent Research and Technology Organizations in the United Kingdom's Technology Transfer Mechanism to SMEs

Independent Research and Technology Organizations (RTOs) provide an increasing proportion of the UK's technology services requirements. RTOs, often former state research establishments spun out into the private sector, provide technology consulting and networking services to specific sectors or for generic technologies; some are membership-based organizations while others work for contract clients. In this paper we explore the roles and services provided by RTOs, together with the measures being taken to assist small firms that, for many RTOs, form a new and challenging market. The diversity of services and approaches to SMEs are related, in part, to the different origins of RTOs. The research indicates three forms of technology services market failure that suggest a need for ongoing external support for the market's mechanism.     

Correlated equilibria in continuous games: Characterization and computation

We present several new characterizations of correlated equilibria in games with continuous utility functions. These have the advantage of being more computationally and analytically tractable than the standard definition in terms of departure functions. We use these characterizations to construct effective algorithms for approximating a single correlated equilibrium or the entire set of correlated equilibria of a game with polynomial utility functions.     

An analysis of exotic wagers in a parimutuel setting

In US horse racing, there is increasing emphasis placed on the creation of exotic wagers - those bets beyond the standard win, place and show. Bets on multiple races that typically do not result in a winner for several days are of particular interest to the industry. The growing carryover pool helps attract people to the racetrack in a way similar to a growing carryover in the lottery attracts more people to participate. This article examines several multiple race bets and provides a framework for their comparative analysis. The results of the analysis will help racetrack management decide if a proposed bet is appropriate for their particular track. This analysis shows a tradeoff between the difficulty of winning the bet versus the amount of the ultimate payoff. If a bet is too easy to win, then the carryover pool will never reach an attractive level. If the bet is too difficult to win, then the bettors will lose interest before the carryover pool is able to grow sufficiently large. The amount of money wagered daily is an important consideration in determining the appropriate type of exotic wager to implement.     

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space‐time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi,Ghana

This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space‐time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint analysis of nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, and unstructured heterogeneity. Proximity to primary case locations and population density serve as continuous covariates. Reference to communities is modelled as a spatial effect. The study applied to the Kumasi area in Ghana shows that communities proximal to primary case locations are infected relatively early during the epidemics, with more remote communities infected at later dates. Similarly, more populous communities are infected relatively early and less populous communities at later dates. The rate of infection increases almost linearly with population density. A non systematic relation occurs between the rate of infection and proximity to primary case locations. It is discussed how these findings could serve as significant information to help health planners and policy makers in making effective decisions to limit cholera epidemics.