Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.     

Initial public offerings in the gaming industry: an empirical study

The fastest growing segment of the hospitality industry is gaming-related business. This industry has experienced record numbers of companies going public, and their stocks are considered favorable long-term investments. Research in the initial public offering (IPO) area suggests that investors acquiring stock at the initial offering price earn large returns. The purpose of this study was to determine if large returns are being experienced for IPOs in the gaming segment of the hospitality industry, and if these large returns were limited to investors who purchased the stock at the initial offer price. There were 14 gaming-related companies selected for the study. The conclusions supported research reporting that the highest returns from IPO investments are made when the stock is purchased at the initial offer price. This study concludes that returns based on the initial offer price were greater than the casino index and the IPO index. When the investor purchased the stock at the first day's closing price, however, returns compared to the two indices were surpassed only after holding the stock for 8 weeks.     

Integration in the mortgage market

The deregulatory trend and advances in technology during the 1980s removed many restrictions on the ability of U.S. depository financial institutions to obtain and redistribute funds across diverse geographical markets. This pervasive deregulation and innovation should have increased the degree of integration between different geographical financial markets. Yet there is little empirical evidence available on the validity of this expectation. It is important to provide such evidence since much of the U.S. depository institution regulatory policy is predicated on the assumption of highly localized, segmented financial markets. Considering alternative breakpoints at 1980 (DIDMCA) and at 1982 (Garn-St Germain), the current study tests the hypothesis that the degree of geographical financial integration after this period exceeded that prior to this period. Mortgage markets are focused on due to their historical importance in the regulation of funds flows. The study finds a significant increase in the mean contemporaneous correlation among FHLB districts' mortagage rate residuals in a vector-autoregressive system between two test periods. Further analysis shows that the distance between FHLB districts' headquarters and their respective pairwise interdistrict correlation coefficients are negatively related in the prior period but not significantly related in the later period. Economic booms and busts alternated among the districts over the two sample periods in a manner consistent with the reallocation of capital among more integrated financial markets. Individual districts' mortgage rates have been more sensitive to variations in national credit market conditions since deregulation was legally recognized by DIDMCA in 1980. Thus, the collective empirical evidence found in this study indicates that mortgage markets have responded to deregulation and marked technological advances by moving toward a national, highly integrated market. Regulators' preoccupation with highly localized, segmented markets must consequently be reexamined.     

Canadian and American Reactions to Drug and Alcohol Testing Programs in the Workplace

We investigated U.S. and Canadian reactions to workplace drug and alcohol testing programs. Canadian truck drivers (n = 183) deemed drug and alcohol testing policies less fair, and were less accepting of these policies, than their American counterparts (n = 153). We also compared the perspectives of recipients versus third-party observers with regard to their reactions to a drug testing program. Unlike the pattern observed among American observers, the responses by Canadian observers were highly similar to those of the recipients. Canadian observers were more inclined to file a formal protest regarding the implementation of a drug and alcohol testing program than were U.S. observers. The results also showed that procedural and interactional justice principles contributed to the program's fairness, acceptance, and lower levels of protest intentions in both Canada and the United States. We propose that scholars and practitioners can gain a better understanding of multinational reactions to drug and alcohol testing by considering not only cultural but also historical, social, political, and other environmental factors that can shape reactions to personnel practices.     

Trade intensity,country size and corruption

Abstract. Several authors claim to provide evidence that governmental corruption is less severe in countries where trade intensity is higher or populations are smaller. We argue that theory is highly ambiguous on these questions, and demonstrate that empirical links between corruption and trade intensity – or country size, strongly related to trade intensity – are sensitive to sample selection bias. Most available corruption indicators provide ratings only for those countries in which multinational investors have the greatest interest: these tend to include almost all large nations, but among small nations only those that are well-governed. We find that the relationship between corruption and trade intensity disappears, using newer corruption indicators with substantially increased country coverage. Similarly, the relationship between corruption and country size weakens or disappears using samples less subject to selection bias. Received: July 2001 / accepted: April 2002 We thank Anand Swamy and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions, Paul Schorosch for able research assistance, and Ray Fisman, Roberta Gatti, Aart Kraay, and Shang-jin Wei for kindly providing data. The conclusions of this paper are not intended to represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.     

Corporate Reputation and Social Performance: The Importance of Fit

abstract    Utilizing data on a sample of large firms, we estimate a model of corporate reputation. We find reputation, derived from the assessments of managers and market analysts, to be determined by a firm's social performance, financial performance, market risk, the extent of long-term institutional ownership, and the nature of its business activities. Furthermore, the reputational effect of social performance is found to vary both across sectors, and within sectors across the various types of social performance. Specifically, our results demonstrate the need to achieve a 'fit' among the types of corporate social performance undertaken and the firm's stakeholder environment. For example, a strong record of environmental performance may enhance or damage reputation depending on whether the firm's activities 'fit' with environmental concerns in the eyes of stakeholders.     

A General Method of Deriving the Inefficiencies of Banks from a Profit Function

This article develops a new method of estimating inefficiencies in joint production and shows that unlike the approaches utilized in the previous studies of inefficiency, this method maintains a consistent relationship between the error term of a profit function and the error terms of its price derivatives. A useful by-product of the method is a proof of a Hotelling-like lemma that relates stochastic input demand and output supply functions to stochastic profit functions. While the previous studies fit a single frontier to data on all firms, this paper estimates a frontier unique to every observed firm to allow each one to have a different potential of achieving maximal levels of profit. The new method is applied in the analysis of annual data, 1984–1989, for U.S. commercial banks. Both the analytical and numerical results of the paper show that the residual that the previous studies attribute to inefficiency includes the effects of excluded variables and of inaccuracies in the specified functional forms. Once accurate estimates of these effects are subtracted from the residual, the distortions in the measured inefficiencies should be considerably reduced. Consequently, this article considers how such estimates might be obtained.     

The Development of Corporate Charitable Contributions in the UK: A Stakeholder Analysis

This paper investigates the determinants of corporate charitable donations within a comparative study of corporate behaviour in two time periods, 1989–90 and 1998–99. The analysis is based on a longitudinal data set that includes over 400 UK listed companies. The determinants of corporate charitable donations are explored within a stakeholder model and the relationship between corporate charitable donations and a set of firm and industry variables is estimated using OLS. Particular emphasis is placed on industry effects and the impact of social and environmental stakeholders. The results highlight a significant change in behaviour between 1989–90 and 1998–99 that may reflect a strategic response by corporate decision‐makers to external concerns over corporate social responsibility. In the early period corporate charitable donations were substantially determined by profits. However, this relationship has weakened during the 1990s as firms have become increasingly responsive to stakeholder influences. The results for the later period emphasize the increasing importance of corporate visibility, and the development of social and environmental influences on corporate charitable contributions.