The market for protection and the origin of the state

We examine a stark setting in which security or protection can be provided by self-governing groups or by for-profit entrepreneurs (kings, kleptocrats, or mafia dons). Although self-governance is best for the population, it faces problems of long-term viability. Typically, in providing security, the equilibrium market structure involves competing lords, a condition that leads to a tragedy of coercion: all the savings from the provision of collective protection are dissipated and welfare can be as low as, or even lower than, in the absence of the state. Thus, we explain the tendency towards autocracy both in history, before the appearance of modern representative governance, and in many low-income countries in modern times.     

Contest success functions

Summary Tournaments, conflict, and rent-seeking have been modelled as contests in which participants exert effort to increase their probability of winning a prize. A Contest Success Function (CSF) provides each player's probability of winning as a function of all players' efforts. In this paper the additive CSF employed in most contests is axiomatized, with an independence from irrelevant alternatives property as the key axiom. Two frequently used functional forms are also axiomatized: one in which winning probabilities depend on the ratio of players' efforts and the other in which winning probabilities depend on the difference in efforts.I am grateful to three anonymous referees, Jack Hirshleifer, Guillermo Owen, and especially Duncan Luce for their helpful comments, and to the UC Irvine Academic Senate and the NSF for financial support.     

An economic approach to analyzing civil wars

Civil wars and conflict can be understood from an economic point of view only if there is incomplete contracting. I examine such settings and first discuss sources of incomplete contracting, from geography and ethnic and social distance to external interventions due to geopolitics or the presence of rents. Yet, since war is destructive, the contending parties might normally be expected to settle in the shadow of war. One reason that sometimes they do not, contrary to conventional wisdom, is because the shadow of the future is too long. Subsequently, using a formal model for guidance I examine some consequences of civil wars and emphasize the role hierarchical organization and rents play in determining the severity of conflict.      

Audit pricing, quality of earnings and board independence: The case of the Athens stock exchange

Prior research has pointed to the importance of the determinants of audit pricing. This paper examines empirically the effect of both audit independence and earnings management on the audit pricing by companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange. This test is performed in an institutional setting with excessive earnings management and poor corporate governance mechanisms. The results based on a sample of 97 Greek companies for a five-year period (2000-2004), show that there is a positive association between audit independence and auditing pricing. Our results also indicate a positive association between audit pricing and earnings management for the small size companies. Taken together our results suggest that strong governance is related to increased needs for quality assurance services and that the relation between earnings management and audit pricing might indicate potential red flags. Finally, limitations, suggestions for further research and policy implications for regulatory agencies are offered.     

Loan Loss Provisions, Earnings Management and Capital Management under IFRS: The Case of EU Commercial Banks

Prior research has shown that loan loss provisions are primarily used as a tool for earnings management and capital management by listed banks. Effective 2005 all listed companies in the European Union (EU) are required to comply with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Adherence to IFRS, it is claimed, should enhance transparency of reporting practices relative to local General Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The overall objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the implementation of IFRS on the use of loan loss provisions (LLPs) to manage earnings and capital. We use a sample of 91 EU listed commercial banks covering a period of 10 years (before and after implementation of IFRS). Since early adopters may have different incentives and motivations relative to those who adopt mandatorily, we dichotomize our sample into early and late adopters. Overall, we find that earnings management (using loan loss provisions) for both early and late adopters while significant over the estimation window is significantly reduced after implementation of IFRS. We also find that, for risky banks, earnings management behavior is more pronounced when compared to the less risky banks, but is significantly reduced in the post IFRS period. Capital management behavior by bank managers is not significant in both pre and post IFRS regimes. Overall, we conclude that the implementation of IFRS in the EU appears to have improved earnings quality by mitigating the tendency of bank managers of listed commercial banks to engage in earnings management using loan loss provisions.     

The costs of organized violence: a review of the evidence

I critically review recent studies that estimate those costs of violence and conflict that can emerge among organized political groupings, such as states, religious and ethnic organizations, guerillas and paramilitaries. The review includes studies that estimate direct and indirect costs due to internal conflicts (civil wars and other lower-level conflicts), terrorism, and external conflicts, including military spending. There are a number of key theoretical concerns on what counts as a cost, and, depending on the methods and evidence used, estimated costs vary widely. However, even minimum estimates are economically significant, especially for low-income countries. This is even more so when the costs of different types of organized conflict and violence are aggregated.     

The Impact of Unrealized Fair Value Adjustments on Dividend Policy

We examine the impact of unrealized fair value adjustments on dividend policy. Dividend payouts should include only persistent income [Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings and taxes. American Economic Review, 46(2), 97–113]. In our institutional setting, however, regulators recommend the non-distribution of any income from fair value adjustments, which suggests that they interpret them as transitory. We empirically demonstrate that fair value adjustments on investment property are persistent, while those on financial securities are transitory. We further show that only fair value adjustments from investment properties are distributed. We argue that managers perceive the persistence of the two fair value components correctly, and by doing so, they distribute income consistent with the Lintner framework rather than on regulatory recommendations. Finally, by focusing on managerial optimism, debt contracting, and insider ownership, we demonstrate the conditions under which firms choose to deviate from regulator recommendations and to distribute fair value profits.     

Stock market reaction to dividend announcements: Evidence from the Greek stock market

This study investigates the market reaction to cash dividend announcements for the period 2000–2004 employing data from the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). In particular, the paper examines both the stock price and trading volume response to dividend distribution announcements. Dividend distributions in Greece demonstrate noticeable differences to those of the US, the UK and other developed markets. First, dividends in Greece are paid annually rather than quarterly or semi-annually. Second, the Greek corporate laws 2190/1920 and 148/1967 specifically designate the minimum amount for distribution from the taxed corporate profits. Third, neither tax on dividends nor on capital gains was imposed during the period under examination. Fourth, Greek listed firms are characterized by high ownership concentration where major owners are usually involved in management and therefore have less need for dividend announcements as an information source. Despite this neutralized information and tax environment, we document significant market reaction to dividend change announcements, lending support to the “information content of dividends hypothesis”.