Multi-population mortality forecasting using tensor decomposition

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we formulate the multi-population mortality forecasting problem based on 3-way (age, year, and country/gender) decompositions. By applying the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD) and the different forms of the Tucker decomposition to multi-population mortality data (10 European countries and 2 genders), we find that the out-of-sample forecasting performance is significantly improved both for individual populations and the aggregate population compared with using the single-population mortality model based on rank-1 singular value decomposition (SVD), or the Lee–Carter model. The results also shed lights on the similarity and difference of mortality among different countries. Additionally, we compare the variance-explained method and the out-of-sample validation method for rank (hyper-parameter) selection. Results show that the out-of-sample validation method is preferred for forecasting purposes.     

Unintended Consequences: How Suppliers Compensate for Price Concessions and the Role of Organizational Justice in Buyer‐Supplier Relations

“You get what you pay for” is one of life's lessons that predominates in purchasing decisions individuals make in their personal lives. The results of this study suggest this lesson should also prevail among management when price‐related purchasing decisions in businesses are being made. An evaluation of over 1,700 purchasing instances across seven years of a longitudinal panel data set collected from Tier 1 production suppliers to the six major North American automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota, found that suppliers compensate for price concessions and price reduction pressure from the OEM in the year following the concession, by reducing product quality, service support, and R&D expenditures associated with goods provided to the OEM. This industry is particularly relevant because it is highly adversarial, yet at the same time reliant on interdependence. The results show that supplier price concessions granted to an OEM led to compensatory supplier behaviors of reduced quality and R&D expenditures toward that OEM. Further, the results suggest that the organizational justice dimensions of distributive justice, procedural justice, interpersonal justice, and informational justice can ameliorate negative supplier compensatory activities. A buyer–supplier relational environment that engenders organizational justice tactics such as open and honest communication with suppliers provides suppliers the expectation of an acceptable return on business over the long term, provides help to suppliers to reduce costs, and builds supplier trust of the OEM had generally positive effects on quality, service, and R&D expenditures. From a management perspective, these results indicate there is a very real risk versus reward issue associated with pressuring suppliers for price reductions.     

Only the Best? Exploring Cross-Border Investor Preferences in US Gateway Cities

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Despite heady growth in cross-border investment into commercial real estate over recent decades, there are few studies that examine differences in...     

A systematic literature review identifying associations between outcomes and quality of life (QoL) or healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in schizophrenia

Aims: There have been no systematic literature reviews (SLRs) evaluating the identified association between outcomes (e.g. clinical, functional, adherence, societal burden) and Quality-of-Life (QoL) or Healthcare Resource Utilization (HCRU) in schizophrenia. The objective of this study was to conduct a SLR of published data on the relationship between outcomes and QoL or HCRU.

Materials and methods: Electronic searches were conducted in Embase and Medline, for articles which reported on the association between outcomes and QoL or HCRU. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to identify the most relevant articles and studies and extract their data. A summary table was developed to illustrate the strength of associations, based on p-values and correlations.

Results: One thousand and two abstracts were retrieved; five duplicates were excluded; 997 abstracts were screened and 95 references were retained for full-text screening. Thrirty-one references were included in the review. The most commonly used questionnaire, which also demonstrated the strongest associations (defined as a p?Limitations: This study included data from an 11-year period, and other instruments less frequently used may be further investigated.

Conclusions: The evidence suggests that the PANSS is the clinical outcome that currently provides the most frequent and systematic associations with HCRU and QoL endpoints in schizophrenia.     

Are CSR Disclosures Value Relevant? Cross-Country Evidence

Using proprietary data that rate corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures of firms in 21 countries, this study examines how the strength of nation-level institutions affects the extent of CSR disclosures. We then examine the valuation implications of CSR disclosures and consider how the relation between CSR disclosures and firm value varies across countries. In contrast to prior studies, we separate CSR disclosures into an expected and unexpected portion where the unexpected portion is a proxy for the incremental information contained in CSR disclosures. We observe a positive relation between unexpected CSR disclosure and firm value measured by Tobin's Q. We also find that, while countries with strong nation-level institutions promote more CSR disclosures, the valuation of a unit increase in unexpected CSR disclosures is higher when nation-level institutions are weak.     

Dramaturgy of a Campaign: Viewing the Advertising Agency Process as a Theatrical Production

The creation of advertisements is the most widely researched topic in the advertising literature. However, the extant literature on advertising agency dynamics during campaign development remains vague and imprecise. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new framework that can be used in the practice of studying advertising agencies. Twelve face-to-face interviews were conducted with executives at an advertising agency. A qualitative discourse analysis revealed parallels that exist between the major skill areas of an advertising agency and a theatrical troupe. In particular, the roles of producer, director, designer, technical crew, house manager, actors, and audience are similar to roles in an advertising agency.     

Consumer Trust and Satisfaction in the Formation of Consumer Loyalty Intentions in Transactional Exchange: The Case of a Mass Discount Retailer

Marketing relationships can be placed on a continuum from short, discrete transactions to ongoing brand relationships. The majority of recent work has focused on relational exchanges, with some scholars even suggesting early on that the marketing discipline was undergoing a paradigm shift from a transaction-based marketing perspective toward a relational exchange perspective. However, there has been a growing recognition that not all customers seek relational exchanges. Consequently, the current research considers customer relationship management from the less studied, but oft seen, perspective of transactional exchange. A study is presented using recent advances in structural equation modeling analyses, including Bayesian estimation methods and mediation analyses. We further consider the psychological processes underlying the formation of consumer loyalty based on pre- and post-purchase measurements taken over multiple time periods. We specifically hypothesize that consumer satisfaction judgments will fully mediate any influences of post-purchase trust judgments on future loyalty intentions. With American consumers’ trust in businesses at an all-time low, coupled with the recent trend that more and more brick-and-mortar retailers are at risk of “showrooming” for online retailers, there is an apparent need to also consider retail customers who see the value of relationship marketing only selectively.