DYNAMIC CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURNS AND EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON THE CONDITIONAL VOLATILITIES – THE CASE OF SEVERAL EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The objective of the paper is to determine whether the linkage between stock returns and exchange rates in several Eastern European countries was in accordance with the flow oriented model or the portfolio‐balance approach. The dynamic interdependence between exchange rate and stock returns is determined using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) framework. The results pointed to a negative dynamic correlation which is in line with portfolio‐balance approach. Rolling regression revealed that conditional correlation was affected primarily by conditional volatility of currency, while the impact of stock returns volatility was negligible.     

Accounts from behind the Curtain: History and Geography in the Critical Analysis of Urban Theory

This article seeks to contribute to the debate on the proposal to decentre urban theory and to develop postcolonial urban studies, and on the related issue of the geography of the production and circulation of knowledge. It focuses on how scholars writing about post‐socialist cities explain why their sub‐field has so far contributed little to urban theory, and it proposes an alternative—historically informed—perspective on the issue. Based on an analysis of the ties and exchanges that existed between urban studies in Central and Eastern Europe and ‘West‐based' urban theory and research during the state‐socialist period, this article argues that the recognized current position of research on post‐socialist cities in relation to international urban scholarship has important historical parallels with the period prior to 1989. The article thus underlines the need to include a historically informed analysis of geography of knowledge production in critical thinking about urban theory and in the project of cosmopolitan urban studies. The capacities of researchers in different localities to contribute to this project are various and shaped by the history of the discipline. The conditions and perspectives in and from which researchers contribute to urban theory should therefore be taken into account if the project of cosmopolitan urban studies is to succeed.     

Did rent deregulation alter tenure choice decisions in the Czech Republic?

Our study is the first that explicitly links rent deregulation and the choice between owning and renting (the tenure choice) using household decisions over a 1‐year period. The rent deregulation process in the Czech Republic started in 2006, two years after joining the European Union. By design, the maximum regulated rent appreciation depended explicitly on real estate prices, which accelerated the pace of deregulation due to rapidly rising prices at the time. A unique dataset enables us to track the tenure choice of households from consumption surveys for subsequent years. The proportion of households that switched from renting to owning sharply increased among renters of regulated apartments. We show that this change was caused by the deregulation process. In contrast, rent deregulation makes owners and renters paying market rent less likely to change ownership status.     

Competition and Environmental Policy in the EU: Old Foes,New Friends?

European competition authorities consider environmental and competition policy to be complementary, as each has the objective of improving social welfare. Naturally, one would imagine that environmental considerations have already been accounted for in competition policy practice, but thus far, only in the case of voluntary environmental agreements. This paper analyzes the extent to which the two types of policy are complementary by examining the legal framework of competition policy, voluntary environmental agreements and three competition cases with equal relevance to the environment and then examines the basic theoretical economic observation that less competition implies lower pollution levels relative to more competition. This trade-off between the benefits of reduced emissions on the one side and increased competition on the other implies that disregarding environmental considerations in the implementation of competition policy entails a negative externality, which can be eliminated if environmental considerations are internalized in competition policy. The impact of the externality is found to depend on the emission level, the emission damage, and market size. Further, this implies that if competition authorities were to adopt a broad definition of the relevant market in competition cases, then environmental considerations would play a limited role in competition policy, whereas a narrow definition implies that environmental considerations should have a much more important place than competitive considerations in competition policy.     

MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g. monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models which are based on exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and can therefore suffer from the curse of dimensionality. However, if the restrictions imposed by MIDAS are too stringent, the MF-VAR can perform better. Hence, it is difficult to rank MIDAS and MF-VAR a priori, and their relative rankings are better evaluated empirically. In this paper, we compare their performances in a case which is relevant for policy making, namely nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP growth in the euro area on a monthly basis, using a set of about 20 monthly indicators. It turns out that the two approaches are more complements than substitutes, since MIDAS tends to perform better for horizons up to four to five months, whereas MF-VAR performs better for longer horizons, up to nine months.     

Statistical properties of the total variation estimator for compositional data

The sample space of compositional data, a simplex, induces a different kind of geometry, known as Aitchison geometry, with the Euclidean space property. For this reason, the standard statistical analysis is not meaningful here, and this is also true for measures of location and covariance. The measure of location, called centre, is the best linear unbiased estimator of the central tendency of the distribution of a random composition with respect to the geometry on the simplex (Pawlowsky-Glahn and Egozcue in Stoch Envir Res Risk Ass, 15:384–398, 2001; Math Geol, 34:259–274, 2002). Its covariance structure is described through a variation matrix, which induces the so called total variation as a measure of dispersion. The aim of the paper is to show that its sample counterpart has theoretical properties, corresponding to the standard multivariate case, like unbiasedness and convergence in probability. Moreover, its distribution in the case of normality on the simplex is developed.     

Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets

We study intraday comovements among three developed (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and three emerging (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) European stock markets. When applying a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model to 5- min tick intraday stock price data (2003–2006), we find a strong correlation between the German and French markets and also between these two markets and the UK stock market. However, very little systematic positive correlation during a trading day can be detected between the developed and emerging stock markets, or within the emerging group itself. Hungary exhibits higher correlation with the developing markets and the emerging markets and its dynamics show an increasing trend; Poland and the Czech Republic produce less clear-cut results.