Inferences about the parameters of a time series model with changing variance

Summary We consider the problem of making inferences about the parameters of a time series model when there is the possibility of a discrete variance change at an unknown time point. For this we obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and of the variance ratio.     

仓库信息化建设发展战略探讨

以仓库信息化建设与发展为内容,提出了在仓库信息化建设中,应建立军民一体化战略、纵向一体化战略、横向一体化战略、仓库内部一体化战略,建立与实现高效协调、快速反应的军事物流运作系统。     

An Integrative Framework for Measuring the Extent to which Organizational Variables Influence the Success of Process Improvement Programmes

abstract    Studies on the three types of process improvement programmes (Continuous Improvement, Reengineering and Benchmarking) have appeared many times in the literature. These studies suggest that certain organizational variables act as enablers and their presence or absence can significantly influence success rates. Such studies have tended to examine companies where a single programme has been implemented. In contrast, this paper examines a sample of companies who have experienced all three programmes. Our aim is to compare and contrast each programme's impact on firm performance and identify which organizational variables are common and which are programme-specific enablers of success. We build and test an integrative framework to support our analysis. Our study found that: (1) Reengineering delivered the greatest impact on performance; (2) executive commitment was needed to make this happen; (3) strategic alignment was the major influence on the success rate of Reengineering and Continuous Improvement programmes; and (4) employee empowerment was necessary for each programme to work effectively.     

企业文化对员工心理契约的影响机制研究——以某高科技上市公司为例

本文的基本观点是,企业文化是通过影响员工心理契约的形成而发挥作用的。本研究发现,企业文化是员工心理契约形成的更一般性的基础,企业文化的特征将决定员工心理契约的性质。我们认为,员工心理契约是一个平衡结构,员工责任和组织责任在内容和强度上都需要平衡。     

LOGIT模型在小额农贷信用风险识别中的应用

小额农贷对满足农民生产、生活中的小额资金需求有重要作用。小额农贷有效实施的关键是信用风险的控制。本文根据小额农贷的特点构造一个LOGIT识别模型，并利用苏北某信用联社贷款数据对模型进行实证检验。LOGIT识别模型结果稳定、可靠，是较理想的农户信用风险识别模型。     

面向供应链管理的库存问题与对策

以两个典型企业为例,比较研究了我国制造型企业在面向供应链管理的库存控制中的现象和企业行为特征,将所存在的问题归结为面向企业外部和内部两个层次。针对面向企业内部的问题探讨了解决对策,并讨论了用仿真作为供应链库存控制问题对策研究的基本方法的可行性和应用前景。     

基于供应链管理理论的器材保障研究

现代物流在其发展过程中形成了众多的先进理念。供应链管理作为一体化的物流管理，受到了国内外学者的广泛关注。本文通过分析现代物流理论和美军军事物流战略，提出了一种基于供应链理论的器材保障构想。     

Social Welfare and Income Inequality in a System of Cities

This paper develops a general-equilibrium model of a system of core-periphery cities to examine the main determinants of intra- and inter-regional income disparities. The economy is populated by a continuum of (homogeneous) unskilled and (heterogeneous) skilled workers. Unskilled workers, whose wages are determined competitively, specialize in food production in local cities; skilled workers, whose wages are determined according to a Nash bargain, manufacture a high-tech commodity in the metropolis. We establish conditions under which this core-periphery equilibrium spatial configuration emerges. We show that both intra- and inter-regional income disparities are present; the determinants of each type of disparity and the social-welfare implications are fully investigated. Our results suggest that public policy programs that improve income equality may not be necessarily welfare enhancing.     

对我国金融资产管理公司转型的思考

经过5年多的发展,我国金融资产管理公司(AMC)到现在面临转型。本文分析了我国金融资产管理公司转型的必然性,就转型的路径选择做出三种预测,以及对金融资产管理公司转型提出一些准备。     

潺潺溪水终成河--记四川省审计厅经济责任审计分局局长周韦

一 也不知是谁说过这样的一句哲语:"愈是黑暗的夜晚,星光愈是显出它的灿烂;愈上曲折的道路,愈是有可能走到成功的峰巅!"这句话用在早年周韦的身上,是再恰当不过的了.