Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

会计准则国际趋同的报告

全球六家主要的国际会计师事务所在2003年2月12日发布了一份最新的国际财务报告准则(IFRS)调查报告:《会计准则的国际趋同报告——2002年全球调查》。该项调查的目的是评价世界各国采纳《国际财务报告准则》的情况和完备程度。调查背景介绍随着国际投资者越来越多地在全球范围内考虑其投资决策,对一个全球一致的财务会计框架的要求也越来越强烈。2001年4月,国际资本市场提出,改组后的国际会计准则委员会应该担负起制定全球统一的、高质量会计准则的使命。世界上主要的会计师事务所对国际会计准则委员会在制定全球统一的会计准则方面所作出…     

济南直选“小巷总理”

前不久举行的济南市历下区佛山苑社区第六届社区居委会选举具有特殊的意义,因为这次的居委会成员将由社区居民代表直接投票选举产生,这一选举方式受到了居民的热烈欢迎.     

Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.