中国城市规模和产业结构对城市劳动生产率的协同效应研究

文章基于我国281个地级及以上城市2000-2013年的面板数据,综合运用GMM、门槛面板模型和空间面板模型等计量方法,实证研究了城市规模和产业结构对中国城市劳动生产率的协同影响效应.研究发现:(1)中国城市劳动生产率与城市规模之间呈倒U形关系,与二产/三产增加值之比也呈现倒U形关系;(2)城市“规模红利”的发挥受制于产业结构,而产业结构的“结构红利”大小也受城市规模的影响.文章据此提出:虽然少数中国特大城市和大城市已经初步出现规模不经济迹象,但绝大多数中等城市规模仍偏小,“规模红利”还有待进一步开发,同时绝大多数城市还未充分发挥第二产业的潜力,不宜过早“去工业化”.文章据此对中国城市发展战略提出一系列政策建议,即要用更加市场化的手段鼓励城市规模优化和产业结构调整.     

Who invests more in advanced abatement technology? Theory and evidence

We study firm investment in abatement technology under a heterogeneous‐firm framework. We find that more‐productive firms make more (less) investment in abatement technology if investment and productivity are complements (substitutes). Under linear demand, firms’ abatement investments exhibit an inverted U‐shape with respect to productivity level. This finding is in contrast to results in existing studies. We also find that in response to tightened environmental regulations, more‐productive firms raise their respective investments in abatement technology, whereas less‐productive firms do the opposite. More‐productive firms have lower pollution emission intensity. The key theoretical predictions are confirmed by empirical tests using Chinese data.     

The effects of foreign strategic investors on business models in China’s commercial banks: does ownership structure matter?

Introducing foreign strategic investors (FSIs) is a vital step in the ownership reforms of China’s banking industry. Using China’s data from 1995 to 2014, we employ propensity score matching and difference-in-differences approaches to investigate the effects of FSIs on the business models of Chinese banks, including income structure and funding structure. We find that FSIs significantly influence income structure. The bank’s non-interest income (NII) share significantly rises after introducing FSIs. The higher ownership shares of FSIs are associated with the higher NII share. And the NII share has been increased when FSIs assign directors or senior managers to Chinese banks. We also report that the effects of FSIs on income structure are weaker in state-owned banks than those in other banks, and ownership concentration weakens the links between FSIs and income structure. Finally, this article shows that FSIs have no significant influence on funding structure. These findings will be informative and relevant to both policymakers and practitioners.     

International Trade and R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

A current concern for China's long‐term growth prospect is whether China can become an innovative economy and achieve industrial upgrading to compensate for the gradually declining competitiveness resulting from low‐cost labor. The present study examines this issue by exploring how trade participation impacts on the R&D investment of manufacturing firms through various channels. Merging China's Annual Manufacturing Survey Dataset and the Chinese Customs Dataset allows us to study such a relationship at the individual firm level. The empirical results suggest that channels such as geographical diversification of export markets, share of imports from high‐income countries, average unit value of imports, number of intermediate goods and capital goods imports, and the trade regime are significant factors that influence firm‐level R&D investment. The study discusses the policy implications of the empirical findings in relation to industrial and trade policies that may be potentially beneficial for China's transition towards an innovative economy.     

对推进供给侧结构性改革的思考

经济发展进入新常态,要求正确认识、主动适应与积极引领。推进供给侧结构性改革是中央经济工作会议作出的重大抉择,也是认识、适应、引领经济新常态的重大创新与必然要求。推进供给侧结构性改革是绕不过的关口,是推动经济稳中求进、稳中向好的历史性任务。要在全面理解供给侧结构性改革内涵的基础上,按照中央经济工作会议精神有的放矢、精准推进、重点突破,确保供给侧结构性改革取得实效,赢得经济社会发展的主动权。     

Cryptocurrency,confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange

We investigate whether Chinese cryptocurrency investors show confirmatory bias when processing authority‐related news. Authority‐related news is defined as news that is related to government authority (including central bank) policies or talk. By using data from the largest cryptocurrency exchange in China, we find that investors’ response to authority‐related news is negative and significant in general. Moreover, we find that the abnormal trading volume and standard deviation of abnormal trading volume are significantly higher for authority‐related news with higher readability, suggesting investors respond to the more readable authority‐related news with more trading behaviour.     

资源型地区转型的财政转移支付法律问题研究——以山西省为例

实施区域协调发展战略、实现资源型地区转型发展离不开作为国家宏观调控、政府干预和政策指导的主要手段之一的财政转移支付法律制度的支持,但现行财政转移支付法律制度制约着资源型地区的转型发展,如缺乏高层次的财政转移支付法律制度、横向转移支付法律制度缺位、资源型地区专项转移支付法律制度供求不均衡。并以山西省为例,从法经济学的视角,采用bootstrap方法进行实证分析得到资源型地区专项转移支付结构存在项目设置脱离实际、资金分配不合理的问题,据此提出完善资源型地区转型发展的财政转移支付法律制度的建议。     

Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach

In this paper, we propose pricing temperature derivatives using a filtered historical simulation (FHS) approach that amalgamates model-based treatment of volatility and empirical innovation density. The FHS approach implicitly captures the risk premium with the entire risk-neutral model (except the innovation distribution), thereby providing significantly more flexibility than existing methods that use only one designated parameter to capture the risk premium. Additionally, instead of relying on the fitted innovation distribution, the FHS approach uses empirical innovations to capture excess skewness, excess kurtosis, and other non-standard features in the temperature data, all of which are important for the correct pricing of temperature derivatives. We apply the FHS approach to pricing derivatives written on the temperature of Chicago, and demonstrate that this approach yields better in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performance than the constant market price of risk method and the consumption-based method.     

Innovation capability and post-IPO performance

This paper studies how firms’ innovation capability is related to their stock performance and eventual survival for a sample of biotech IPO firms. We create product-related measures of firms’ innovation capability by tracking the changes in R&D expenses, products, patents, strategic alliances, and product development stages for our sample firms, as disclosed in their IPO prospectuses and third post-IPO 10-K filings. We find that innovation capability is critical to contemporaneous stock performance and eventual firm survival. Biotech IPO firms are more likely to succeed in the long run, if they are able to expand the scale of their research undertakings and make progress in these research activities.     

新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应

利用全局主成分分析法和改进Moore指数,分别对新型城镇化水平和产业结构变迁指数进行测算,并在经济增长的空间相关性分析基础上,构建空间自回归模型、空间效应分解模型和面板门槛模型,实证检验了新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应。研究显示,新型城镇化通过发挥其“选择效应”优化产业结构、提升企业生产率,有效促进了经济增长;中国经济发展的“结构红利”因产业结构变迁而减弱,导致中国经济发展出现“结构性减速”现象,但产业结构变迁的经济增长效应仍存在;实现产城联动,发挥新型城镇化与产业结构变迁的“协同效应”,对于缓解经济发展过程中的“结构性减速”问题,促进中国经济增长具有积极作用;新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应因产城关系的阶段性不匹配而存在“门槛效应”。