基于Grey-DEMATEL方法的绿色食品可持续供应链障碍分析

首先基于制度理论、资源基础观以及调研梳理出绿色食品可持续供应链实践的障碍因素,采用Grey-DEMATEL方法对障碍因素进行了因果关系分析和重要性排序.结果表明,企业诚信和社会责任感缺失及政府监管不力是绿色食品可持续供应链障碍的最根本因素,而绿色食品的法规和标准不完善是最重要的障碍因素.因此政府应在完善法规和标准的同时加强对绿色食品监管,企业应提高诚信和社会责任感.     

全面建成小康社会——由量变到质变的决定性发展

由＂全面建设小康社会＂到＂全面建成小康社会＂,不仅是全党全国新时期新阶段发展的宏伟目标,更是站在新的历史高度,在我国小康社会建设已经取得的重大现实成果基础上做出的重大决策。未来五至十年,对于中国能否跨越中等收入陷阱,实现国民经济持续稳定的增长,使人民获得更多发展的实惠,继续深入推进基本公共服务均等化,以生态文明建设增强可持续发展的能力,都具有决定性的意义。     

“生态习得外语”模式的理论探索

"生态习得外语"模式通过交换"分别操对方目的语的语言专业生"获取"语言习得"所需要素间的最和谐的"生态运作",具有生态的目的语环境、自然的习得手段、生态的课堂及和谐生态特征而获名"生态习得",从而使外语学习接近"母语习得"。     

产业集聚一定能带来经济效率吗：规模效应与拥挤效应

规模效应与拥挤效应是产业集聚“一枚硬币的两面”,集聚也会导致集聚效应由规模效应向拥挤效应转变。本文利用１９９９～２００７年全国６０个工业城市数据,实证分析拥挤效应对全要素生产率的影响,证实了拐点的存在。通过运用门限模型发现２００３年是我国经济发展的拐点,进一步的面板回归表明２００３年及以前规模效应占主导,之后拥挤效应的约束性作用逐渐凸显,集聚度与全要素生产率存在着倒Ｕ型关系。本文的研究结论有着重要的政策启示：一是我国已经进入拥挤时期,鼓励先发地区向欠发地区产业转移有着必要性;二是就城镇化建设而言,在鼓励农村富余劳动力向城市转移过程中,缺乏要素激励的转移可能只会产生拥挤效应而不是规模效应。     

Market-Consistent Valuation and Funding of Cash Balance Pensions

Cash balance pension benefits are accumulated at guaranteed crediting rates, usually based on yields on government securities. Viewed as a financial liability, the benefit is a form of interest rate derivative, which can be valued using financial models and theory. In this article, we derive the market value for a range of commonly used crediting rates, assuming the accrued benefit liability comprises the past contributions, allowing for full interest credits up to a known future retirement date. We use the Hull-White interest rate model to determine crediting rates and to determine the market value. We explore the risks associated with different crediting rate choices by evaluating the liability using market data from 1998 to 2013. We propose two other approaches to the accrued benefit. The first approach assumes the accrued benefit comprises past contributions with interest up to the valuation date, but no future interest credits. Future credits on past contributions are assumed funded through future contributions. The second method projects all contributions and interest to retirement and assumes equal units of accrual of this projected benefit in each year of service. We compare the three approaches through numerical examples.     

An exact and explicit solution for the valuation of American put options

In this paper, an exact and explicit solution of the well-known Black–Scholes equation for the valuation of American put options is presented for the first time. To the best of the author's knowledge, a closed-form analytical formula has never been found for the valuation of American options of finite maturity, although there have been quite a few approximate solutions and numerical approaches proposed. The closed-form exact solution presented here is written in the form of a Taylor's series expansion, which contains infinitely many terms. However, only about 30 terms are actually needed to generate a convergent numerical solution if the solution of the corresponding European option is taken as the initial guess of the solution series. The optimal exercise boundary, which is the main difficulty of the problem, is found as an explicit function of the risk-free interest rate, the volatility and the time to expiration. A key feature of our solution procedure, which is based on the homotopy-analysis method, is the optimal exercise boundary being elegantly and temporarily removed in the solution process of each order, and, consequently, the solution of a linear problem can be analytically worked out at each order, resulting in a completely analytical and exact series-expansion solution for the optimal exercise boundary and the option price of American put options.     

Trading on inside information: Evidence from the share-structure reform in China

We examine stock trading activities in days before Chinese listed firms made public announcement to start share-structure reform. There is significant evidence that, relative to a benchmark period, institutional investors bought more event firms’ shares in the last two trading days prior to announcement. Randomization tests show significant differences in institutional trading activities between event firms and matched control firms, which suggests that some institutions had inside information. Moreover, large trades account for a significant proportion of daily stock price changes in the last 2 days. The evidence is consistent with the prediction by Holden and Subrahmanyam (1992) that, when multiple informed investors acquire the same piece of information, they will trade aggressively. We also find that over the reform period, the median share value change of event firms is 6% higher than that of control firms. Our findings have important implications for enforcement of insider trading regulations in China.     

Optimal dividend policies for piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk models

This paper considers the optimal dividend payment problem in piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk models. The objective is to maximize the expected discounted dividend payout up to the time of ruin. We provide a comparative study in this general framework of both restricted and unrestricted payment schemes, which were only previously treated separately in certain special cases of risk models in the literature. In the case of restricted payment scheme, the value function is shown to be a classical solution of the corresponding HJB equation, which in turn leads to an optimal restricted payment policy known as the threshold strategy. In the case of unrestricted payment scheme, by solving the associated integro-differential quasi-variational inequality, we obtain the value function as well as an optimal unrestricted dividend payment scheme known as the barrier strategy. When claim sizes are exponentially distributed, we provide easily verifiable conditions under which the threshold and barrier strategies are optimal restricted and unrestricted dividend payment policies, respectively. The main results are illustrated with several examples, including a new example concerning regressive growth rates.     

Bankruptcy risk,costs and corporate diversification

This paper studies the impact of diversification on firms that file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Prior research suggests that diversification affects both the probability and costs of distress. Treating bankruptcy as a special case of distress, we find that diversification reduces the likelihood of bankruptcy and liquidation in Chapter 11, which is consistent with the coinsurance hypothesis. However, we observe higher bankruptcy costs as measured by time spent in Chapter 11 and inefficient segment investment for diversified firms. Our evidence is consistent with the idea that diversification provides benefits to managers in terms of job security rather than to firms. Our findings may help firms to make diversification decisions and creditors determine lending policies toward different forms of organizations.     

Z-score模型最优分割点的确定方法比较——基于违约风险预测能力的分析

Z-score模型在对企业进行财务困境和违约风险判别方面具有重要的应用价值,最优分割点的确定方法对于提高模型的违约风险判别能力至关重要.本文以医药生物行业上市公司为样本,运用Fisher逐步判别法从15类财务比率中筛选出判别能力较强的7个指标构建了Z-score模型,并尝试采用加权平均法和考虑先验概率及误判成本的ZETAc模型法分别确定最优分割点.研究发现,ZETAc模型法预测企业违约风险的能力明显优于加权平均法.