Beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour? The welfare effects of monetary policy

This paper examines whether monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) show that monetary expansion under producer currency pricing increases domestic and foreign overall welfare, in cases where the cross-country substitutability is high. If the cross-country substitutability is low, then monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself policy that reduces domestic welfare and increases foreign welfare (Corsetti & Pesenti 2001; Tille 2001). In this paper, we will show that regardless of whether the cross-country substitutability is high or low, monetary expansion is always a beggar-thyself policy in the short run.     

The Impact of the Multinational in the Development: An Ethical Challenge

Multinational enterprises have continued their increase during the last decades. What these companies do and how they do, determines not only the economic development of countries, but also their social and cultural development. This enormous power implies responsibility and new challenges.If we also take into account the role of multinational enterprises in what has been called sustainable development, we see that their importance is still more decisive.In order to guide the performances of multinational enterprises that operate in developing countries, several supranational organizations like the ILO, the OECD, the EU and the UN have elaborated some recommendations to unify criteria and to set out some minimum standards to favor an integral development of these countries. In this document we present three of those with the greatest impact and we analyze them from the approach of an ethical sustainable human development.     

What motivates common pool resource users? Experimental evidence from the field

This paper develops and tests several models of pure Nash strategies of individuals who extract from a common pool resource when they are motivated by a combination of self-interest and preferences for altruism, reciprocity, inequity aversion, or conformity. Using data from experiments conducted in three regions of Colombia that depend critically on a local fishery, we test whether an econometric summary of the subjects’ pure Nash strategies is consistent with one or more of these models. We find that a model that balances self-interest with a strong preference for conformity best describes average strategies.     

External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply‐Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment*

The influential work of Obstfeld and Rogoff argues that a closing‐up of the US current account deficit involves a large exchange rate adjustment. However, the Obstfeld–Rogoff model works exclusively via demand‐side channels and abstracts from possible supply‐side changes. We extend the framework to allow for endogenous supply‐side changes and show that this fundamentally alters the mechanism of the adjustment process. Allowing for such an extension attenuates quite significantly the implied exchange rate adjustment. The paper also provides some empirical evidence of variations in the supply‐side structure and correlations with the exchange rate and the current account. The policy implications are that measures to foster a supply‐side reaction would facilitate the external adjustment by alleviating an exclusive reliance on demand and exchange rate changes, with the latter being potentially destabilizing for the global financial system.     

How far from harmonization are sanitary,phytosanitary and quality-related standards? An exporter’s perception approach

Harmonization of trade regulations and standards is perhaps the most contentious issue regarding export markets due to the impacts that it can have on trade. We determine the extent of harmonization as perceived by exporters with respect to the major Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPSs) and quality measures which Chile faces in 16 international fresh fruit markets. The methodology combined qualitative and quantitative techniques. First, the most relevant safety and quality standards and regulations were identified and ranked. Second, a representative sample of exporters was interviewed to assess their perceptions regarding the level of stringency across markets and time for selected regulations. Perceptions were ranked on a likert scale and based on this scale a stringency index was constructed. The results show that Chile faces regulations which can be grouped into the following categories: (i) phytosanitary measures; (ii) tolerance limits for pesticide residues and contaminants; (iii) hygiene requirements; (iv) labeling, marking and packaging; (v) product and process standards; and (vi) registration procedures and other import requirements. The number of regulations varied among countries, ranging from 13 to 3 out of the 14 considered in the study. The most stringent country among the sample as perceived by exporters was México, whereas the least stringent was Saudi Arabia. Additionally, exporters agreed that stringency has increased over time with an average of 15% between 2005 and 2009.     

Why did he do that? Using counterfactuals to study the effect of intentions in extensive form games

We investigate the role of intentions in two-player two-stage games. For this purpose we systematically vary the set of opportunity sets the first mover can choose from and study how the second mover reacts not only to opportunities of gains but also of losses created by the choice of the first mover. We find that the possibility of gains for the second mover (generosity) and the risk of losses for the first mover (vulnerability) are important drivers for second mover behavior. On the other hand, efficiency concerns and an aversion against violating trust seem to be far less important motivations. We also find that second movers compare the actual choice of the first mover and the alternative choices that would have been available to him to allocations that involve equal material payoffs.     

金融服务业如何通过合作拓展销售渠道

随着传统销售渠道所带来的增长势头逐渐减弱，保险公司和银行开始在行业领域之外开拓新的销售渠道。例如，英国的许多银行已经通过与诸如乐购（Tesco）以及玛莎百货（Marks＆Spencer）等零售企业建立合作关系来提供金融服务。现在，其他国家的银行和金融服务机构也开始发展类似的合作关系，但是他们仍然有所顾虑，因为近年来出现了一系列失败的合作案例。尽管如此，我们的研究和经验表明：金融服务机构和零售商之间的成功合作并不是遥不可及的神话，     

Bayesian multivariate regime-switching models and the impact of correlation structure misspecification in variable annuity pricing

ABSTRACT

We develop Bayesian multivariate regime-switching models for correlated assets, comparing three different ways to flexibly structure the correlation matrix. After developing the models, we examine their relative characteristics and performance, first in a straightforward asset simulation example, and later applied to a variable annuity product with guarantees. We find that the freedom allowed by the more flexible structures enables these models to more accurately reflect the actual asset dependence structure. We also show that the correlation structures inferred by the most commonly used (and simplest) model will result in significantly larger estimates of the cost of the annuity guarantees.     

Accounting for Risk and Stability in Technology Adoption

The reasons for sluggish adoption of long‐run agricultural systems are not well understood. Researchers have identified risk and uneven cash flows as two likely culprits, yet the literature has done little to investigate their impacts simultaneously. We explore the unique influence of risk, risk preference, stability, and stability preferences on the adoption of long‐run investments. We developed risk‐stability‐segregated expected utility (RSSEU) to disentangle risk from stability and then compute the impacts of risk, stability, and preferences over a range of values found in previous studies. Results clearly demonstrate that adoption decisions are influenced differentially by risk and stability. An unstable income can overwhelm the risk effect or visa versa, depending on a person's preferences for risk and stability. Disentangling risk and stability could be very important if economists are to understand how decisions are made. For example, we found that the impact of risk on individual behavior is very low when the expected income flow is unstable. In this case, policies that smooth expected income over time will be more effective than ones that reduce risk. In contrast, risky technologies with a stable income path are more appropriately addressed with instruments like insurance or facilitating futures markets. Les raisons de la lente adoption des systèmes agricoles à long terme ne sont pas bien comprises. Selon certains chercheurs, le risque et les flux de trésorerie irréguliers sont deux facteurs probables; toutefois peu de travaux se sont penchés sur leur impact simultané. Nous avons exploré l'influence du risque, des préférences pour le risque, de la stabilité et des préférences pour la stabilité sur l'adoption d'investissements à long terme. Nous avons élaboré une espérance d'utilité distincte risque‐stabilité(risk‐stability‐segregated expected utility) pour dégager le risque de la stabilité et pour calculer l'impact du risque, de la stabilité et des préférences à partir d'une série de valeurs tirées d’études antérieures. Les résultats ont clairement montré que les décisions d'adoption sont influencées différemment par le risque et la stabilité. Un revenu instable peut accabler l'effet du risque ou vice versa, selon les préférences d'une personne pour le risque et pour la stabilité. Si les économistes veulent comprendre de quelles façons les décisions sont prises, il serait important de dégager le risque de la stabilité. Par exemple, nous avons observé que l'impact du risque sur le comportement individuel est très faible lorsque les flux de revenus sont instables. Dans ce cas, les politiques qui adoucissent les revenus prévus au fil du temps seront plus efficaces que celles qui diminuent le risque. En revanche, des instruments tels que les assurances et les marchés à termes sont des moyens plus efficaces lorsque les technologies comportent des risques et que les revenus sont stables.