Life histories in housing research: the case of Pakistanis in Glasgow

The discussion centers on three key criticisms of life history techniques, which are reviewed and evaluated with reference to data from research on Pakistani housing histories in Glasgow. Firstly, the problem of bias is reframed as an issue of reflexivity, which enhances research findings. Secondly, awareness of the cultural construction of life histories allows greater depth of analysis. And thirdly the problem of the relationship between the life history and wider social forces is argued to increase awareness and understanding of social actor agency. In conclusion, we argue that life history techniques can develop research on housing careers, particularly of Pakistanis, provided certain of their properties are recognised in the process of analysis.     

Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

Differences in the Cost of Trade Execution Services on Floor-Based and Electronic Futures Markets

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of electronic trading on brokerage commissions by investigating a sample period that covers the period of transition from floor to electronic trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. After controlling for liquidity, volatility and broker identity, the introduction of electronic trading remains to be associated with lower brokerage commissions relative to floor markets. The study also provides new evidence on brokerage commissions in futures markets finding that commission fees charged on futures trades average 0.002% of transaction value. This is up to 120 times smaller than the magnitude of brokerage fees charged in stock markets, and considerably lower than the magnitude of brokerage fees assumed for futures markets in previous research. Consistent with existing studies based on stock markets, commissions charged per contract decrease with order size reflecting economies of scale in the provision of brokerage services in futures markets. Commission rates are positively related to bid-ask spreads and price volatility, which proxy for the probability of execution error costs and execution difficulty, respectively. Finally, the identity of the broker is found to be a significant determinant of commissions reflecting different pricing schedules across brokers.     

The contextual relevance effect on financial advertising

The contextual relevance effect is an important factor for the effectiveness of financial services advertising that corresponds to the message effects such as ad recall (R_AD), perceived contextual relevance (PCR), message involvement (MI) and attitude towards the ad (A_AD), created during the process. Thus, this study examines whether the contextual relevance effect increases R_AD, PCR, MI and A_AD. The results reveal that the contextual relevance effect increases R_AD, PCR, MI and A_AD. Moreover, MI mediates PCR on A_AD. Implications based on the findings demonstrate the importance of contextual relevance as a metric for financial services advertising effectiveness.     

Testing Alternative Regression Frameworks for Predictive Modeling of Health Care Costs

Predictive models of health care costs have become mainstream in much health care actuarial work. The Affordable Care Act requires the use of predictive modeling-based risk-adjuster models to transfer revenue between different health exchange participants. Although the predictive accuracy of these models has been investigated in a number of studies, the accuracy and use of models for applications other than risk adjustment have not been the subject of much investigation. We investigate predictive modeling of future health care costs using several statistical techniques. Our analysis was performed based on a dataset of 30,000 insureds containing claims information from two contiguous years. The dataset contains more than 100 covariates for each insured, including detailed breakdown of past costs and causes encoded via coexisting condition flags. We discuss statistical models for the relationship between next-year costs and medical and cost information to predict the mean and quantiles of future cost, ranking risks and identifying most predictive covariates. A comparison of multiple models is presented, including (in addition to the traditional linear regression model underlying risk adjusters) Lasso GLM, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forests, decision trees, and boosted trees. A detailed performance analysis shows that the traditional regression approach does not perform well and that more accurate models are possible.     

Transatlantic wage gaps and the migration decision: Europe–Canada in the 1920s

As has been seen in other contexts, workers in similar occupations earned much higher wages in Canada than Europe during the 1920s. This observation and related aspects of immigration are addressed with a life-cycle model of the migration decision. The characteristics of immigrants from five European countries: Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden, are explored in a way that sheds light not just on those population flows but on the process of immigration generally. We draw on passenger manifests from immigrant ships for information on the individual migrants. Simulations, based partly on the these manifests, reveal that the costs of migration, borrowing constraints, concern for status, and country-specific taste preferences account for key immigrant characteristics, and help explain the large wage differentials that persisted despite Canada’s relatively open immigration policy.     

The Rise and Decline of Small‐Scale Sugarcane Production in South Africa: A Historical Perspective

South Africa's sugar industry has long been distinguished by its large number of small‐scale sugarcane growers (SSGs) farming on ‘communal’ land and its peculiar privately administered regulatory structure. In recent years, however, the numbers of small‐scale growers have declined precipitously. This paper argues that the relationship between the rise and fall of SSG production and the industry's governing regulatory structure is closer than usually appreciated. The emergence of SSG production in the late 1970s and the 1980s can be traced to industry‐subsidized initiatives, disguised as small‐scale credit, to bring commercially inalienable Bantustan land into cane production with strong miller oversight. From the late 1980s to 1990s, however, the elimination of these subsidies encouraged millers to subcontract support to farmers, while simultaneously instigating an increase in SSG numbers by removing restrictions on grower registration. Although low rainfall is a central proximal factor in the rapid decline of the SSGs in the 2000s, their rapid increase was structurally fragile.     

Personal income tax mimicry: evidence from international panel data

This paper investigates personal income tax (PIT) mimicry at the international level. It is the first to empirically investigate the extent to which PIT mimicry varies along the tax schedule and the first to include nations which are not part of the OECD. We use data on international personal income tax schedules from the world tax indicators to estimate marginal and average tax rates at various multiples of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). These tax rates are then used to estimate the extent to which countries respond to their neighbors’ PIT policy. We find evidence of PIT mimicry using a balanced panel of 53 countries over 24 years. This finding is strongest for tax rates at lower multiples of per capita GDP and survives several robustness checks.     

Networks of injustice and worker mobilisation at Walmart

This article investigates the use of Internet networks during the recent mobilisation of Californian Walmart workers. The findings of this case study suggest that Internet‐based mass self‐communication networks (Facebook, YouTube, etc.) can complement traditional organising techniques. Mass self‐communication networks ameliorate many of the weaknesses identified by previous studies of Internet networks. In particular, these types of networks can help overcome negative dispositions towards unions, increase the density of communication and the level of participation among members, create a collective identity congruent with trade unionism, facilitate organisation and spread ‘swarming actions’ which are effective at leveraging symbolic power. Moreover, unions may be well suited to providing crucial strategic oversight and coordination to wider worker networks.