An econometric test of structural change in the demographic transition

"The structural change model of the demographic transition developed by Easterlin and others is explored empirically by applying the Brown, Durbin and Evans test of structural change to annual data from the transitions of Sweden, Norway, England and Wales, and Finland. The evidence strongly supports the structural change model over traditional models (based on gradual changes in explanatory variables), indicating a supply response of fertility to declining illness and death during the early stages of transition, and a demand response to the death of children during the latter stages, when families are likely to have achieved desired size."     

Nonstationary discrete choice: A corrigendum and addendum

We correct the limit theory presented in an earlier paper by Hu and Phillips [2004a. Nonstationary discrete choice. Journal of Econometrics 120, 103–138] for nonstationary time series discrete choice models with multiple choices and thresholds. The new limit theory shows that, in contrast to the binary choice model with nonstationary regressors and a zero threshold where there are dual rates of convergence (n^1/4$n^{1/4}$ and n^3/4$n^{3/4}$), all parameters including the thresholds converge at the rate n^3/4$n^{3/4}$. The presence of nonzero thresholds therefore materially affects rates of convergence. Dual rates of convergence reappear when stationary variables are present in the system. Some simulation evidence is provided, showing how the magnitude of the thresholds affects finite sample performance. A new finding is that predicted probabilities and marginal effect estimates have finite sample distributions that manifest a pile-up, or increasing density, towards the limits of the domain of definition.     

Imminent Entry and the Transition to Multimarket Rivalry in a Laboratory Setting

In this paper we study the behavior of rivals when there is a known probability of imminent entry. Experimental markets are used to collect data on pre‐ and postentry production when there is an announced time of possible entry; some markets experience entry and other do not. In all preentry markets competition is more intense. Postentry behavior in all markets is more competitive compared to a baseline that had no threat. There is evidence that postentry multimarket contact raises outputs in those markets that did not experience entry, behavior we generally refer to as a conduit effect.     

What drives college-age Generation Y consumers?

Generation Y (individuals ages 14-31 in 2008) are in the marketplace with the numbers and the purchasing power to have an unprecedented impact on the economy. Despite the potential of this group as a whole, especially the middle-aged members of this generation (ages 18-22) who are in the highly coveted college-student market, much is unknown about the motivations behind these individuals' consumption behavior and preferences. This study attempts to address this gap in the literature by exploring the antecedents of the consumption behavior of college-aged Generation Y individuals. The findings indicate that issues relating to socialization, uncertainty reduction, reactance, self-discrepancy, and feelings of accomplishment and connectedness drive Y consumers' product purchases and retail patronage. This article discusses these issues as well as their theoretical and managerial implications.     

The commercial impact of live streaming: A systematic literature review and future research agenda

Live streaming allows streamers and viewers to watch, create, and share videos in real time on topics from gaming, shopping, and social channels to tourism and entertainment. It is distinct from earlier forms of social media in that it allows for real-time interaction and is extremely synchronous. That makes live streaming an important new area of enquiry. Yet live streaming platforms, streamers, and scholars lack an informed structure from which to build more holistic understanding and strategy. Following the theory–context–characteristics–methodology framework, we undertake a framework-based systematic literature review of 89 articles to source, review, and synthesize disparate findings in the arena of live streaming and live streaming commerce users' motivation and interactions. A dual stimulus–organism–response integrative framework is developed to further explore the characteristics of interaction and motivation factors. A future research agenda highlights areas of research focus that are critical next steps for scholars.     

Robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails, and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide. In addition, our methods allow for stochastic trend non-stationarity and general forms of serial dependence. The methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920s, which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system. The tail behaviour of the data is analysed using an adaptive data-based method for estimating the tail slope of the density. The results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods. We find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider (the Belgian and French francs, the Italian lira and the US dollar, all measured against the British pound), we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the Belgian franc, the Italian lira and the US dollar, and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis (where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium) in the case of the US dollar.     

Communicating the health effects of consumer products: The case of moderate alcohol consumption and coronary heart disease

Moderate consumption of alcoholic beverages (MAC) has been estimated to significantly reduce the risk of myocardial infarction. This paper examines effective ways to communicate this information to guide individuals and their physicians, who must weight personal benefits and costs when deciding about drinking. It argues that presenting a scalar representation of the effect, life years saved, is much more effective than the ways such information is currently communicated. A simulation using data from the Framingham Heart Study and a conservative estimate of the effect of MAC calculates age-specific gains in mortality, and survival gains from MAC. They are roughly 0.75 and 0.63 years, respectively, for men and women ages 21–50. Any MAC decision should weigh the benefits of cardiac risk reduction against possible financial, lifestyle or offsetting health costs.     

Does Australia's Unfair Contracts Act Limit Or Enhance Contractual Freedom?

In late 2015 Australia banned ‘unfair’ contract terms between large and small businesses. This article explains the context of the legislation and defends it from a free‐market perspective. It argues that the legislation enhances contractual freedom by codifying the elements that define a commercial contract at common law, and so protects the trust that is embedded in the structure of the contract.