PENN SQUARE,PROBLEM LOANS,AND INSOLVENCY RISK

This paper investigates the influence of the failure of Penn Square Bank of Oklahoma City on stock prices within the banking industry. This influence is compared to the results of previous studies of the failures of Franklin National Bank of New York and United States National Bank of San Diego. While each of these earlier studies finds only a transitory impact on bank securities, this paper finds evidence of a structural change in the pricing mechanism for bank stocks after the Penn Square failure.     

Price-Taking Monopolies in Small Open Economies

The export sector of a small open economy is assumed to be a price-taking monopoly with increasing long-run average cost and positive profit. Under such conditions, demands for productive factors are shown to slope downward in the general equilibrium of an otherwise competitive economy. Comparative static effects of changing prices and factor endowments are weaker than with a competitive export sector. The comparative static effects involving monopoly profit and outputs are examined.     

Longevity and the life-cycle of management buy-outs

The longevity debate about buy-outs has hitherto been restricted. By focusing on large highly leveraged transactions, existing research has taken only a partial view of how long buy-outs last and the factors influencing longevity. This paper develops and tests hypotheses concerning the influences on buy-out longevity across the whole spectrum of management buy-out applications. Both quantitative and case study evidence from the U. K. is presented. A heterogeneity view of buy-outs is supported. Tests using quantitative data show that earlier exit is associated with larger buy-outs, and buy-outs arising on privatization from the public sector and from non-U. K. parents. Case study evidence principally supports hypotheses that earlier exit is associated with financing institutions being in a relatively stronger position than management and with more rapidly changing market conditions for the firm.     

RELATIVE STOCK PRICES AND THE FIRM SIZE EFFECT

A stock's relative price ratio, defined as the ratio of the current price to the average of the highest and lowest prices over some holding period, is shown to be a better predictor of future stock returns than firm size. The price ratio has an even stronger January seasonality than does firm size. After controlling for price ratio variations, firm size has no significant relationship to return. The abnormal returns for the price ratio effect are consistent with those predicted by optimal tax selling considerations.     

An Analysis of the Effects of Recent Changes in the Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade on the Level and Composition of Economic Activity

Over the eighteen-month period ending June 1986, the Australian economy experienced two major shocks: a nominal devaluation of the $A of some 28 per cent and a terms of trade decline of some 16 per cent. The effects of these influences are examined using the ORANI model of the Australian economy. The effects of the devaluation on selected macroeconomic variables and key sectoral variables are presented for various degrees of wage indexation. Effects on quota rents are calculated and compared with actual outcomes. The terms of trade decline has an adverse impact on the balance of trade and in order to offset this impact while maintaining aggregate employment demand the model calculates that both real wages and real absorption would need to be around 4 per cent less than the values they would otherwise take.