BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE USING INDUSTRY-BASED PORTFOLIOS

Much evidence has emerged recently that suggests stock returns are predictable. In representative agent consumption-based asset pricing models, asset returns are related to aggregate output and consumption through changes in the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. An alternative view is that the amount of variation required in the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution is too large to be rationally explained. We shed further light on this debate by investigating whether the stock returns of certain sectors of the economy can predict future market returns even after controlling for the information contained in the aggregate market index. In the consumption-based models, aggregate output and consumption affect the discount rates of all assets synchronously; no particular sectoral return should have any more predictive ability than the others. We find evidence that the stock returns of five industry-based portfolios have significant information about future market returns that is not in the market index. This stylized empirical result is not consonant with existing models relating output to stock returns.     

Evolution of Education Premiums in Cambodia: 1997–2007

This paper evaluates education premiums in Cambodia over the past decade using data from the 1997, 2003–2004 and 2007 Socio‐economic Surveys of Households. The Cambodian labor market has undergone a transformation over the past decade. In 1997, the earnings of workers employed for wages exhibited limited association with education and skills. The picture was dramatically different by 2003 and more so by 2007. The profitability of education had increased sharply, especially for women. There is evidence that the human capital model is now applicable to both men and women, resulting in a wider distribution of earnings. Instrumental variables estimates of the return to an additional year of schooling for male wage earners are found to be higher than the corresponding OLS estimates, but only in the private sector.     

Effects of link placements in email newsletters on their click-through rate

Firms adopting email marketing strategy often complain about low click-through rate (CTR). Scarcity of attention in this digital economy requires including psychological aspects of consumer behavior into the design considerations of digital contents. In this study, we propose differential effects of link placements in email newsletter on their CTR. We explain the observed effects of link placements on CTR drawing concepts from psychology and visual heuristics. The empirical analysis confirms that when it comes to clicking on the links of a newsletter, the click-through follows a U-pattern, i.e. as users traverse the links placed on a U-path their responsiveness decreases gradually. Thus, links placed in the left region of an email newsletter have higher impact than those placed in the right region with links in the top-left region having highest impact. Insights gained from this study can be used in the design consideration of email newsletters.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">The Free-Market Innovation Machine - Analyzing the Growth Miracle of Capitalism</Emphasis>

Book Review

The Free-Market Innovation Machine - Analyzing the Growth Miracle of Capitalism     

Long-run equilibrium between budget deficits and long-term interest rates

Recently, there has been much concern about the size of federal budget deficit and its impact on interest rates. The peace time recovery after the 1981–1982 recession was the longest in U.S. history, accompanied by the largest budget deficit to GDP ratios. The present study investigates the effects of cyclically-adjusted federal deficits on long-term interest rates for 1970:1–1991:2. Using Johansen-Juselius procedures, we find evidence of a long-run relationship between federal budget deficits and long-term interest rates.     

Monetary versus fiscal policy in India: an SVAR analysis

Conventionally, the policymakers relied on three policy alternatives to manage business cycles – debt-financed government spending, debt-financed tax rebate and interest rate. While the first two are fiscal policy instruments, the latter is a monetary policy instrument. This paper aims to capture interactions among Indian monetary and fiscal policy actions, and the impact of such policy actions on select macroeconomic variables for the period 1990Q1–2011Q4. The policy actions are identified using the sign restrictions approach combined with magnitude restrictions in a Structural Vector Autoregression framework, and interpreted using impulse responses and variance decomposition. The results show that Indian monetary policy responds to tax rebate shocks and spending shocks differently. In the case of a tax rebate shock, Indian monetary policy responds by reducing interest rates thereby accommodating fiscal expansion. On the opposite, monetary policy seems not to accommodate expenditure shocks. Interestingly, the monetary policy shock is accompanied by a fiscal expansion that threatens the credibility of the central bank actions, thus indicating fiscal policy dominance. A comparison of the efficacy of the policies suggests that the interest rate is more effective in stimulating output. Out of the two fiscal policy instruments analysed, the tax rebate seems to be the better option for stimulating output considering the output-debt trade-off.     

Human capital formation under neo-liberalism: the legacy of vocational education training in Australasia and implications for the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

This appraisal considers the role and impact of vocational education and training (VET) in Australia and New Zealand, and suggests directions such policy might take in other Asia-Pacific countries. It identifies key issues and constraints in making VET more responsive to emerging labour market needs in the region as an important factor in sustaining high economic growth. It focuses on the way in which the demands of the government, industry, trainees, and, in particular, shifts in political ideology that have influenced the education and training sectors in both countries. It addresses points of specific relevance for the delivery of VET in the broader Asia-Pacific context and concludes with a consideration of lessons and experiences of Australia and New Zealand with VET that may hold for other countries in the region in formulating priorities and implementing strategies in meeting their current and emerging needs for skills development.     

Discrete and Continuous Representations of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Choice Modeling

We attempt to provide insights into how heterogeneity has been and can be addressed in choice modeling. In doing so, we deal with three topics: Models of heterogeneity, Methods of estimation and Substantive issues. In describing models we focus on discrete versus continuous representations of heterogeneity. With respect to estimation we contrast Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and (simulated) likelihood methods. The substantive issues discussed deal with empirical tests of heterogeneity assumptions, the formation of empirical generalisations, the confounding of heterogeneity with state dependence and consideration sets, and normative segmentation.     

R&D and the patent premium

We analyze the effect of patenting on R&D with a model linking a firm's R&D effort with its decision to patent, recognizing that R&D and patenting affect one another and are both driven by many of the same factors. Using survey data for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we estimate the increment to the value of an innovation realized by patenting it, and then analyze the effect on R&D of changing that premium. Although patent protection is found to provide a positive premium on average in only a few industries, our results also imply that the premium varies across industries and with firm size. Patent protection also stimulates R&D across all manufacturing industries, albeit with the magnitude of that effect varying substantially.     

Colliding Employer‐Employee Perspectives of Employee Turnover: Evidence from a Born‐Global Industry

Set in the context of internationalization of the global division of labor, this article provides a deeper exploration of qualitative themes of conflicting accounts of employees’ reasons to quit and managerial strategies to prevent employee turnover in six business process outsourcing firms operating in India. Such differences in cognition and action between the two constituencies suggest that the decision to quit is not a linear and rational process as highlighted in most extant models of employee turnover. Our findings suggest that employees are attached more to a place or people they work with rather than the organization per se. Intergenerational differences between Generation Y knowledge workers and Generation X managers and the ineffectiveness of espoused human resource practices suggest the presence of “push” human resource management (HRM) systems. Our findings have implications for employee turnover models, intergenerational theory and high‐commitment HRM, and practitioners. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.