An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations

This paper extends the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to integrate the heterogeneous trading behavior of three groups of investors; rational utility maximizers, positive feedback, or momentum, traders, and fundamental traders. Using several contemporary fundamental factors to proxy for the latter of these investors’ trading patterns, the interaction of these three groups of investors is explored in the G-7 markets using monthly stock market prices. There is no evidence that positive feedback traders are present in the sample data. Fundamental traders are however observable. This finding suggests that although positive feedback traders may drive stock prices in the short-run, as is typically observed in higher frequency data, fundamental traders likely play a role in pushing prices back to their fundamental value in the longer-run.     

External Financing,Growth and Stock Returns

In this paper we investigate the relation of the value/growth anomaly with the anomaly on corporate financing activities. We confirm and expand earlier results that value/growth and external financing indicators are, to some degree, related predictors of stock returns in the cross section. We show that external financing indicators are incrementally informative since they pick up stock returns associated with earnings quality. Portfolios that combine information from both these indicators generate significantly higher returns than portfolios containing each individual indicator. More importantly, our analysis strongly suggests that the external financing anomaly is, to some extent, distinct from the value/growth anomaly, in that it may also reflect investors’ misunderstanding of the effects of opportunistic earnings management.     

Optimal design of trade institutions

We model an economy with social institutions that facilitate trade and induce three types of costs: establishment costs, access costs, and use costs. Use costs are specific transaction costs related to the use of these trade institutions. We assume that a trade institution is economically completely determined by the costs it imposes and by the effects on the trades it facilitates. We extend the Pareto efficiency concept to include various modes of organization of social institutions: the costs and benefits of these organizations are expressed in the trades they facilitate.Within this setting we discuss a valuation equilibrium concept, in which all agents use a common conjectural price system that assigns to every trade institution the price vector that would prevail under it. This feature of the equilibrium is important in securing the second welfare theorem, and is new to the analysis of economies with costly trade. Since the use costs can be nonlinear, there are non-convexities that prevent the second welfare theorem from obtaining in a finite economy, but we show it for large economies.Received: 3 April 2002, Accepted: 30 April 2003, JEL Classification: D59, D70, H49Robert P. Gilles: donewhile visiting the Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands. Financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), grant B46-390, is gratefully acknowledged.Dimitrios Diamantaras: Part of this research wasSupport from Temple University via a Fuller research fellowship is gratefully acknowledged.The authors would like to thank Suzanne Scotchmer, Andreu Mas-Colell, Marcus Berliant, Shlomo Weber, Hans Haller, Dhanajay Gokhale, Julian Manning, and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and discussions of previous drafts of this paper. A previous version of this paper was circulated as Equilibria of economies with costly trade.     

Towards a measure of financial fragility

The paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilibrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks’ probabilities of default and banks’ profits – to a proxy of welfare.      

Institutional characteristics and capital structure: A cross-national comparison

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether differences in institutional characteristics result in different capital structure determination among countries. First, we analyze the institutional setting in Greece compared with that of other countries. Second, we provide survey information about the determinants of capital structure in Greece and compare our findings with those of similar surveys in the United States and Europe based on Graham and Harvey [Graham, J., & Harvey, C. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60, 187–243], Bancel and Mittoo [Bancel, F., & Mittoo, U. (2004). Cross-country determinants of capital structure choice: A survey of European firms. Financial Management, 33(4), 103–133 Winter 2004] and Brounen, de Jong and Koedijk [Brounen, D., de Jong A., & Koedijk, K. (2006). Capital structure policies in Europe: Survey evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 30, 1409–1442] respectively. Greek firms seem to follow an own-business policy and seem to care more about the disadvantages of debt than try to exploit its advantages. Financial distress considerations, market timing and competitiveness are important factors, whereas agency costs of equity, pecking order and the signalling theory do not seem to apply. Conclusions are relatively similar with those of other countries, though specific differences that can be attributed to the different institutional settings do exist. In general however, we conclude that differences in institutional characteristics do not seem to affect the way of thinking of financial managers when they decide on capital structure issues.     

Adoption of new tobacco varieties in Greece: Impacts of empirical findings on policy design

Greece is a major international tobacco producer. Flue-cured tobacco varieties constituted the major alternative crop to Greek farmers growing certain oriental tobacco varieties. Diffusion of flue-cured tobacco was rapid due to its high yields and the depressed market for certain oriental tobacco varieties. Currently, the common organisation of the tobacco market is undergoing substantial changes, and the farmers' response will be a vital factor of success. A portfolio selection model reveals that the major factors influencing the adoption decision of tobacco growers are the size of the farm measured in annual work units, the farm's proximity to urban centres, the farm's diversification and the farmer's age. The number of contacts with institutions is, surprisingly, inversely related to adoption. Future tobacco policies impinging on factors influencing decisions to adopt new varieties or production practices may be more cost-effective.     

The Stability and Growth Pact,and Balanced Budget Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Germany and Italy

This paper assesses the limitations that the Stability and Growth Pact has imposed on Italy’s economic recovery and its debt reduction. By evaluating Germany’s fiscal policy since 1997, the paper offers recommendations for the Italian authorities. Measures put forward by European Union institutions are hampering Italy’s economic recovery, and evidence indicates that fiscal consolidation is ineffective in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. A balanced budget fiscal injection seems the only way for Italy to escape from its economic slump without further violations of the SGP. The paper concludes that the Pact either needs to be reformed or replaced by a central fiscal authority.     

ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS AND THE LINKS BETWEEN GROWTH,VOLATILITY AND MORTALITY

I construct a model of a growing economy with pollution. The analysis of the model shows that the interactions between capital accumulation, endogenous lifetime and environmental quality determine both the long‐run growth rate and the pattern of convergence (i.e., monotonic or cyclical) towards the balanced growth path. I argue that such interactions can provide a possible explanatory factor behind the, empirically observed, negative correlation between growth and volatility. Furthermore, the model may capture the observed pattern whereby economic growth and mortality rates appear to be negatively related in the long run, but positively related in the short run.