Are computers driving real wages down?

The annual growth in mean employee compensation plummeted from 2.6% in 1947–73 to 0.4% in 1973–2003. Using both time-series regression and pooled, cross-section, time-series regression analysis for 44 industries over the period 1953–2000, we find that earnings growth is positively related to overall productivity growth, capital investment excluding computers, and the unionization rate. We find also that computerization has a significant negative effect on earnings growth, but no evidence that the growth of skills or educational attainment has any statistically significant effect on earnings growth. The dominant factors explaining the slowdown in wage growth are decline in the unionization rate, slowdown in both TFP growth and overall capital investment, and acceleration in computer investment.     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.     

THE WEALTH EFFECTS OF INCOME INSURANCE

Precautionary savings models suggest that wealth should rise with income risk. Risk is reduced by means-tested transfers, however, which implies that transfer programs should discourage private wealth accumulation. We offer a comprehensive empirical assessment based on variation across states in the generosity of a number of programs, specifically unemployment insurance and means-tested transfers (Aid to Families with Dependent Children and Food Stamps). We use monthly data on married couples from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to regress wealth on income, income risk, and various measures of transfer generosity. The results support the precaution-ary savings model and reveal moderate negative wealth effects of both unemployment insurance and means-tested transfers, with an elasticity of about −0.18.     

Morgan Stanley Roundtable on Managing Financial Trouble

Against the current backdrop of troubled credit markets and the possibility of growing defaults, a distinguished group of bankruptcy academics and practitioners explore a number of questions raised by the emergence of increasingly active distressed investors: Are these relatively new market forces and mechanisms at least partly responsible for today's historically low default rates? Can they be expected to continue keeping default rates low, even if the economy goes into recession? And perhaps most important, by preventing or delaying defaults, will these new reorganization methods end up increasing recoveries and preserving value? The second half of the discussion focuses on some of the potential problems, or obstacles to the working of these market forces. For example, how will distressed situations play out in cases involving dispersed creditors, such as the holders of CDOs and CLOs? Will there be negative side effects from other financial innovations such as credit derivatives? While acknowledging the challenges of resolving some relatively new kinds of inter‐creditor conflicts, most of the panelists expressed confidence that today's distressed investors, working within the context of a streamlined Chapter 11 process, can be expected to play a major role in preserving values for creditors. At the same time, such investors will help perform the critical economic function of ensuring, in Douglas Baird's words, “that those companies that should survive do survive” and that corporate assets, whether liquidated piecemeal or kept within the firm, end up in their highest‐valued uses with their most efficient users.     

The leontief question: A Cobb-Douglas approach to simulating the U.S. income distribution in Autarky

Zusammenfassung Leontiefs Frage: Ein Cobb-Douglas Verfahren zur Simulierung der U.S.-Einkommensverteilung bei Autarkie. - Die Frage, die Leontief 1956 in seinem klassischen Artikel über die komparativen Vorteile der USA stellte, war, wie sich die Einkommensverteilung bei Autarkie von derjenigen bei internationalem Handel unterscheide. Normalerweise ist es notwendig, ein Modell des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts mit prohibitiven Z?llen zu simulieren, um zur Einkommensverteilung bei Autarkie zu gelangen. In diesem Artikel wird jedoch gezeigt, da\ in einer Volkswirtschaft, die dadurch charakterisiert ist, da\ die Konsumentenpr?ferenzen und die sektoralen Produktionsfunktionen vom Cobb-Douglas-Typ sind, der Zustand der Autarkie durch eine einfache Matrix-Multiplikation simuliert werden kann. Die Faktoranteile bei Autarkie werden als unabh?ngig vom Faktorangebot abgeleitet. Das Paradoxon wird best?tigt, wenn Kapital und Arbeit homogen sind, w?hrend eine Disaggregation die Ergebnisse erheblich beeintr?chtigt.

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Résumé La question de Leontief: Une approche Cobb-Douglas à simuler la distribution de revenu des Etats Unis en autarcie. - La question posée par Leontief dans son article classique en 1956 sur l’avantage comparatif est, comment la distribution de revenu sous l’autarcie se compare avec celle d’une économie ouverte. Généralement, il est nécessaire de simuler un modèle d’équilibre général avec des droits de douane prohibitifs pour obtenir une distribution de revenu autarcique. Cependant, les auteurs démontrent que, dans une économie caractérisée par des préférences des consommateurs et par des fonctions de production sectorales de type Cobb-Douglas, l’autarcie peut être simulée par une simple multiplication de matrice. Les portions des facteurs autarciques sont dérivées comme être indépendantes de l’offre des facteurs. Le paradoxe se confirme si le capital et la main d’oeuvre sont homogènes, mais une désagrégation affecte le résultat gravement.

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Resumen La pregunta de Leontief: un modelo Cobb-Douglas para simulaciones de la distribución del ingreso en los EEUU bajo autarquía. - La pregunta que Leontief formuló en su artículo clásico (1956) sobre las ventajas comparativas de los EEU fué, en que se diferencia la distribución del ingreso bajo autarqufa de la que prevalece bajo comercio internacional. En general es necesario simular un modelo de equilibrio general con aranceles prohibitivos para obtener la distribución del ingreso bajo autarqufa. Nosotros, empero, demostramos que en una economfa caracterizada por preferencias de los consumidores y funciones de producción sectoriales del tipo Cobb-Douglas la situación bajo autarqufa puede ser simulada através de una simple multiplicación de matrices. Las cuotas correspondientes a los factores bajo autarquía se derivan como si hieran ofertas independientes de factures. La paradoja se confirma para capital y trabajo homogéneos, pero los resultados son muy sensibles al nivel de desagregación.

     

Innovation, progress, entrepreneurship and cultural aspects

In the case of economic progress, some of the literature has considered economic growth and economic progress to be the same thing. However, there is a relevant difference between the two concepts. As Holcombe states, economic growth considers the quantity of products and economic progress the quality of products. Innovation has been considered as a key factor to promote economic progress. A culture would have a direct and an indirect effect on innovation through entrepreneurship. The goal of this paper is to analyze the relationship between culture and innovation. To carry out this study, an empirical estimation has been developed for the case of 11 countries.