Modeling time series information into option prices: An empirical evaluation of statistical projection and GARCH option pricing model

This paper compares the empirical performances of statistical projection models with those of the Black–Scholes (adapted to account for skew) and the GARCH option pricing models. Empirical analysis on S&P500 index options shows that the out-of-sample pricing and projected trading performances of the semi-parametric and nonparametric projection models are substantially better than more traditional models. Results further indicate that econometric models based on nonlinear projections of observable inputs perform better than models based on OLS projections, consistent with the notion that the true unobservable option pricing model is inherently a nonlinear function of its inputs. The econometric option models presented in this paper should prove useful and complement mainstream mathematical modeling methods in both research and practice.     

Price clustering on the limit-order book: Evidence from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong

We examine the clustering pattern in trade and quote prices on the electronic limit order book of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). Earlier research into clustering focuses on transaction prices only. We study clustering on quote prices over a maximum of five queues on the limit order book. We observe an abnormally high frequency of even and integer prices in trade and quote prices for all tick size groups on the SEHK. The deeper quotes display stronger clustering than the best quotes, indicating that the farther away the quotes are from the best queue, the less information they carry. Our analysis further reveals that an extremely fine tick size itself works as a binding constraint to hinder the price resolution process. We also find that short sale prohibition imposed on the majority of stocks listed on the SEHK causes a significant bias in clustering towards the ask side of the limit order book. This implies that a short sale prohibition impairs efficient price discovery in the market.     

The Theory of Differential Overqualification: Does it Work?

The theory of differential overqualification, developed by Robert Frank (1978),claims that married women in smaller labour markets have a higher risk of workingin jobs for which they are overqualified. This stems from the problem of dual jobsearch for couples which is much more difficult to optimize than single job search.Here, for several reasons husbands tend to first optimize their individual job search.Their wives are `tied movers' or `tied stayers' in the sense that their job search isundertaken under the condition that the job search of their husbands is optimized.This leads especially in smaller labour markets to a higher risk of a mismatchbetween formal qualifications and job requirements. The only specific empiricaltest of this theory, until now, has been performed by McGoldrick and Robst (1996) . Their results, using US data, do not support the theory. Using Germanpanel data (GSOEP), we also test the theory of differential overqualification.Unlike previous studies we control for commuting distances and our own resultsprovide some mixed support for the differential overqualification hypothesis.     

Revisiting the corroboration effects of earnings and dividend announcements

Using a unique market setting in Hong Kong, where (i) all firms release earnings and dividend information in the same announcement; (ii) corporate transparency is low; (iii) dividend income is non‐taxable and (iv) corporate ownership is highly concentrated, we re‐examine the corroboration effects of earnings and dividends. We use the control firm approach to avoid the return estimation bias resulting from observation clustering. We also add in variables and use econometric procedure to control for the potential impacts of earnings management, special dividends and heteroskedasticity. Our findings show that there exists a corroboration effect between the jointly announced signals.     

Die Komponenten des Rückganges der Ausländerbeschäftigung

Summary During the crisis of 1974/75 the number of foreign workers in Western European countries has been reduced. This has caused a new discussion about the benefits and drawbacks of the employment of foreign workers. Whatever the attitude towards this problem may be, it is useful to decompose the reduction of foreign labour into categories. First of all a certain amount of foreign labour will be reduced due to a general decrease of overall employment. This influence may be called proportionality effect. The share of foreign workers in the different branches of the economy allows the calculation of a structural effect. Both of them measure influences, which concern foreigners as well as nationals. Only the remaining influence is specific to foreigners. It may again be split into a reduction effect and a substitution effect. The former ist concerned with that part of total reduction of foreign workers, which corresponds to the decrease of employment, i.e. employment reduction by dismissal of foreign workers. The latter pertains to that part of reduction, which exceeds the decrease of employment, i.e. by this magnitude domestic labour has been substituted for foreign labour.The application of this model to the years 1974 and 1975 shows no proportionality effect (1974 it is even positive), a limited structural effect, but a high reduction effect. The substitution effect is considerable in 1974 but of minor importance in 1975. So foreign labour in Austria served actually as cyclical buffer but mainly by reduction and only partly by substitution.     

Distribution,efficiency and incentives in organizations

This paper formulates incentives for individual workers in competitive firms in general equilibrium. Piece-rates and rewards for relative performance can elicit efficient effort in equilibrium, but workers benefit from collusion to reduce effort and consumption and expropriate capitalists by lowering the rental, while employers may choose equilibria with excessive ‘effort’. When there is uncertainty about true individual effort, prizes and limited penalties for best and worst performance can support efficient solutions, while income-risk declines as the size of the team grows. If penalties are prohibited, ex post inequality is multiplied and welfare declines.     

Capital investment practices: A survey of large corporations in Malaysia,Singapore and Hong Kong

This paper presents the results of a survey on the capital investment practices of large corporations in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong. Our findings are fairly consistent with those from similar U.S. surveys. However, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong companies seem to use multiple techniques, both simple and sophisticated, in evaluating investment projects, while U.S. companies appear to make great use of discounted cash-flow rate of return. Although Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong companies often make annual cash-flow forecasts over the life of a project, they do not undertake much analysis of risk involved in the project. Moreover, there is room for improving the practice of project implementation, the post-audit of implemented projects, and the use of post-audit data.Dr Wong Kie Ann is with the School of Management, National University of Singapore; Dr Edward J Farragner is with the Department of Finance, DePaul University, U.S.A.; and Mr Rupert K.C. Leung is with the Department of Business Management, Hong Kong Baptist College.     

Bestimmungsgründe der internationalen Wanderungen europäischer Arbeitskräfte in der Gegenwart

Ohne ZusammenfassungMit 3 Textabbildungen     

Political relationships,global financing,and corporate transparency: Evidence from Indonesia

This study examines the role of political connections in firms’ financing strategies and their long-run performance. We view political connections as an example for domestic arrangements which can reduce the benefits of global financing. Using data from Indonesia, we find that firms with strong political connections are less likely to have publicly traded foreign securities. As a result, estimates of the performance consequences of foreign financing are severely biased if value-creating domestic arrangements such as political relationships are ignored. Connections not only alter firms’ financing strategies, they also influence long-run performance. Tracking returns across several regimes, we show that firms have difficulty re-establishing connections with a new government when their patron falls from power, leading closely connected firms to underperform under the new regime and subsequently to increase their foreign financing.     

Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies

Major changes have occurred in the structure of former centrally planned economies, including a sharp rise in the share of services in GDP, employment, and international transactions. However, large differences exist across transition economies with respect to services intensity and services policy reforms. We find that reforms in policies toward financial and infrastructure services, including telecommunications, power, and transport, are highly correlated with inward FDI. Controlling for regressors commonly used in the growth literature, we find that measures of services policy reform are statistically significant explanatory variables for the post-1990 economic performance of transition economies. These findings suggest services policies should be considered more generally in empirical analyses of economic growth. JEL no. F14, F43, O14, O40