Evolution on the Shoulders of Giants: Entrepreneurship and Firm Survival in the German Laser Industry

This paper studies 40 years of evolution in the German laser industry, which developed in the context of strong foreign competition. Key characteristics found in the U.S. laser industry are also present in Germany. There is sustained entry into the industry, and neither a shakeout nor first-mover advantages of early entrants are observed. Similar to the U.S. industry, spin-offs from existing laser firms have been more long-lived than have been academic startups. An analysis of the spin-off process indicates the importance of specific capabilities acquired at the parent firm.      

Optimal monetary policy under low trend inflation

In the monetary policy literature it is common to assume that trend inflation is zero, despite overwhelming evidence that zero inflation is neither empirically relevant nor a practical objective for central bank policy. We therefore extend the standard New Keynesian model to allow for positive trend inflation, showing that even low trend inflation has strong effects on optimal monetary policy and the dynamics of inflation, output and interest rates. Under discretion, the efficient policy deteriorates and there is no guarantee of determinacy. Even with commitment, targeting non-zero trend inflation leads to substantial welfare losses. Our results serve as a warning against indiscriminate use of models assuming zero trend inflation.     

Attaching Workers through In-Kind Payments: Theory and Evidence from Russia

External shocks may cause a decline in the productivity of fixedcapital in certain regions of an economy. Exogenous obstaclesto migration make it hard for workers in those regions to reallocateto more prosperous regions. In addition, firms may devise "attachment"strategies to keep workers from moving out of a local labormarket. When workers are compensated in kind, they find it difficultto raise the cash needed for migration. This endogenous obstacleto migration has not yet been considered in the literature.The article shows that the feasibility of attachment dependson the inherited structure of local labor markets: attachmentcan exist in equilibrium only if the labor market is sufficientlyconcentrated. Attachment is beneficial for both employers andemployees but hurts the unemployed and the self-employed. Ananalysis of matched household-firm data from the Russian Federationcorroborates the theory.     

Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries

To the layman, the upward trend in European unemployment is related to the slowdown of economic growth. We argue that the layman's view is correct. The increase in European unemployment and the slowdown in economic growth are related, because they stem from a common cause: an excessively rapid growth in the cost of labour. In Europe, labour costs have gone up for many reasons, but one is particularly easy to identify: higher taxes on labour. If wages are set by strong and decentralized trade unions, an increase in labour taxes is shifted onto higher real wages. This has two effects. First, it reduces labour demand, and thus creates unemployment. Secondly, as firms substitute capital for labour, the marginal product of capital falls; over long periods of time, this in turn diminishes the incentive to invest and to grow. The data strongly support this view. According to our estimates, the observed rise of 14 percentage points in labour tax rates between 1965 and 1995 in the EU could account for a rise in EU unemployment of roughly 4 percentage points, a reduction of the investment share of output of about 3 percentage points, and a growth slowdown of about 0.4 percentage points a year.     

A Positive Theory of Social Security

In many countries, social security accounts for a large fraction of the government budget. Why is this so, given that at any point in time the number of recipients of social security benefits is smaller than the number of contributors? In the overlapping‐generations model studied in this paper, all individuals currently alive vote on social security in every period. In equilibrium, the size of social security is larger, the greater is the proportion of elderly people in the population, and the greater is the inequality of pre‐tax income within each generation. Both predictions of the theory are supported by the empirical evidence in cross‐country data.     

Context Effects on Older Consumers’ Cognitive Age: The Role of Hedonic versus Utilitarian Goals

This paper deals with older consumers’ cognitive age (i.e., the age they feel), which is self‐assessed as systematically lower than their chronological age (i.e., their actual age). Such a tendency would lead older consumers to display attitudes and purchasing behaviors, which are not typical of people of their real age. Two studies show that cognitive age is not an immutable construct but varies according to its context of reference, so that the same individual may feel different ages under different circumstances. Results demonstrate that the declared cognitive age is affected by the physical environment, the social references, and the product categories that the consumer is using when self‐assessing it. Furthermore, the tendency of older consumers to feel younger is stronger when these consumers are pursuing in these contexts hedonic rather than utilitarian goals. These findings provide novel inputs for the development of appropriate ways to measure cognitive age and to deal with it when targeting senior consumers and positioning hedonic versus utilitarian goods.