Unemployment,Labor Market Flexibility,and Absenteeism: A Pan‐European Study

Using micro‐data from the European Union's Labour Force Survey for 28 countries this study investigates the incidence and intensity of individuals' sickness‐absence behavior, and assesses the importance of labor market characteristics like unemployment and the extent of atypical contracts and second job‐holding on individuals' sickness absence. The results identify that unemployment affects sickness absence through different pathways, exerting a negative effect on the probability of being absent and a positive effect on the duration of absence. In addition, the degree of second job‐holding and part‐time contracts in the labor market is found to be negatively related to individuals' sickness absence.     

Bank crisis management and resolution after SVB and Credit Suisse: Perspectives from India and the European Union

The March 2023 bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and Credit Suisse, which caused turmoil in financial markets and led to regulatory and central bank intervention, revived the debate about the effectiveness of the bank crisis management, resolution, and deposit insurance legal framework established after the Global Financial Crisis. Although the March 2023 events did not escalate into a full-blown financial crisis, they drew attention to certain areas of the current framework, where improvements may be needed. These areas include the need for financial regulation and supervision to focus more on small- and medium-sized banks as potential sources of systemic market events; to review the adequacy of the current deposit insurance regime and the treatment of uninsured deposits; and to provide more clarity about the order of creditor claims in case of bank resolution/insolvency. This article reviews the events of March 2023 and the key lessons from these events and discusses how these lessons could shape the frameworks for bank crisis management and resolution in India and the European Union. The two jurisdictions are in the process of updating their laws in this area, and the March 2023 events could influence the relevant decisions.     

Overnight information and stochastic volatility: A study of European and US stock exchanges

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the predictive ability of information accumulated during nontrading hours for a set of European and US stock indexes. We introduce a stochastic volatility model, which conditions on lagged overnight information, distinguishes between the nontrading periods of weeknights, weekends, holidays and long weekends, and allows for an asymmetric leverage effect on the impact of overnight news. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of the empirical models, and find two key results: (i) there is substantial predictive ability in financial information accumulated during nontrading hours; and (ii) the performance of stochastic volatility models improves considerably by separating the asymmetric impact of positive and negative news made available over weeknights, weekends, holidays and long weekends.     

THE ECONOMIC GAINS OF TRADING STOCKS AROUND HOLIDAYS

I assess the economic gains of strategies that account for the effect of holiday calendar effects on the daily returns and volatility of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The dynamic strategies use forecasts from stochastic volatility models that distinguish between regular trading days and different types of holidays. More important, I assess the economic value of conditioning on holiday effects and find that a risk-averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy that does not account for the effect of holidays on daily conditional expected returns and volatility to a strategy that does. This result is robust to reasonable transaction costs.     

Challenges facing European labour markets: Is a skill upgrade the appropriate instrument?

The financial and economic crisis shattered the Lisbon Strategy’s attempt to increase the EU’s employment rate to 70% among 15–64 year olds by 2010. The new Europe 2020 strategy envisages a 75% adult employment rate by 2020; however, this goal also seems unrealistic in light of the economic crisis which has caused the EU’s employment rate to drop significantly below 70%. A crucial question now is whether a skill upgrade of the European labour force would help to increase the employment rate, especially among youth. This Forum explores the relationship between education and employment throughout the EU.     

Periodic Stochastic Volatility and Fat Tails

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the size andstatistical significance of the day of the week, month of theyear, and holiday effects in daily stock index returns and volatility.We employ data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA),the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the S&P SmallCap600 in order to test whether the seasonal patterns of mediumand small firms are similar to those of large firms. Using formalhypothesis tests based on bootstrapping, we demonstrate thatthere are more significant calendar effects in volatility thanin expected returns, especially for the two large cap indices.More importantly, we introduce the periodic stochastic volatility(PSV) model for characterizing the observed seasonal patternsof daily financial market volatility. We analyze the interactionbetween seasonal heteroskedasticity and fat tails by comparingthe performance of Gaussian PSV and fat-tailed PSVt specificationsto the plain vanilla SV and SVt benchmarks. Consistent withour model-free results, we find strong evidence of seasonalperiodicity in volatility, which essentially eliminates theneed for a fat-tailed conditional distribution, and is robustto the exclusion of the crash of 1987 outliers.     

Families and firms: Agency costs and labor market imperfections in Sialkot's surgical industry

The family firm is generally viewed as an organizational solution to agency costs in the labor market for managers and institutional underdevelopment. Consistent with this view, this paper links the preponderance of family firms in the surgical instrument industry of Sialkot to the prevailing agency and institutional problems. However, strong dependence on family management coupled with restrictions on family size constrains the firms from optimally choosing management size. The resulting labor market distortion is manifested by a significant positive correlation between the founder's family size and the firm size such that the founders who have more brothers (a larger pool of potential managers) end up with bigger firms.     

A novel risk management framework for natural gas markets

This paper examines dynamic hedges in the natural gas futures markets for different horizons and explores the gains from devising risk management strategies. Despite the substantial progress made in developing hedging models, forecast combinations have not been explored. We fill this gap by proposing a framework for combining hedge-ratio predictions. Composite hedge ratios lead to significant reduction in portfolio risk, whether spot prices are partially predictable or not. We offer insights on hedging effectiveness across seasons, backwardation-contango conditions and the asymmetric profiles of long-short hedgers. We conclude that forecast combinations better reconcile realized performance with the hedging process, mitigating model instability.     

Auditor's Engagement Risk and Audit Fees: The Role of Audit Firm Alumni

Abstract:  This study explores the effect of the association of audit firm alumni with their alma mater on audit prices. The tests indicate that there is a moderate reduction of up to 21% in the level of audit fee when alumni (i.e., former employees) of the incumbent audit firm sit on the client board of directors which is consistent with the engagement risk theory. This suggests that there is an 'alumni effect' in the market for audit services. The findings hold only in the large company segment of the market. The results are robust to different model specifications and alternative samples. The sample comprises all executive and non-executive directors who run the UK quoted companies and are simultaneously ICAEW qualified chartered accountants. The study's implications for the accounting profession and the regulators are also discussed.     

Testing for a unit root under the alternative hypothesis of ARIMA (0, 2, 1)

Showing a dual relationship between ARIMA (0,?2,?1) with parameter θ?=??1 and the random walk, a new alternative hypothesis in the form of ARIMA (0,?2,?1) is established in this article for evaluating unit root tests. The power of four methods of testing for a unit root is investigated under the new alternative, using Monte Carlo simulations. The first method testing θ?=??1 in second differences and using a new set of critical values suggested by the two authors in finite samples, is the most appropriate from the integration order point of view. The other three methods refer to tests based on t and?φ?statistics introduced by Dickey and Fuller, as well as, the nonparametric Phillips–Perron test. Additionally, for cases where for the first method a low power is met, we studied the validity of prediction interval for a future value of ARIMA (0,?2,?1) with θ close but greater of ?1, using the prediction equation and the error variance of the random walk. Keeping the forecasting horizon short, the coverage of the interval ranged at expected levels, but its average half-length ranged up to four times more than its true value.