An analysis of Japanese earnings forecast revisions with application to seasoned equity offerings

Using the bootstrap method, we explore the characteristics of revisions in Japanese earnings forecast data. We find that forecast revisions exhibit a downward trend over time as the actual earnings announcement date approaches, and are serially correlated with three significant lags. Using these characteristics we develop a model to estimate abnormal forecast revisions, and illustrate the model's use with a sample of Japanese companies announcing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In contrast to results obtained by studies using American data, our findings indicate significant positive upward revisions when Japanese firms announce an SEO.     

Zur Entgrenzung der Publizistikwissenschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Policy implications

Abstract: In the European Union, the framework of financial services legislation at EU level has been aimed primarily at forming a single market for banks, insurers and other financial services firms. Substantial progress has been made towards this objective. Also, the EU initiatives have stimulated a reappraisal of national regulatory systems. Most of this EU legislation (with the exception of the consumer credit directives) has not had consumer protection as one of its main aims, although it has been assumed that consumers will eventually benefit from a wide choice of financial services providers and from price competition. However, partly in response to consumer pressure, the European Commission is developing a set of initiatives more closely geared to protecting consumers’ interests. Within the context of the EU’s approach, there remain considerable variations in the approach to protecting consumers’ interests in different member states as a result of legal and cultural differences.     

Entrepreneurship and corporate governance

Conclusions The main message of this article is that Austrians can continue to work within the contractual, or Coasian, approach to the firm in elaborating the insights discussed above. In particular, the problem of corporate governance, and the corollary view that firms are investments, belongs at the forefront of Austrian research on the theory of the firm. Emphasis should thus be placed on the plans and actions of the capitalist-entrepreneur. A particularly undeveloped area concerns the provision of capital to small, “entrepreneurial” ventures. Most of the literature on governance focuses on the large corporation, and the use of stock and bond markets to govern these organizations. Equally important, however, are smaller, privately held firms, financed with venture capital or other forms of investment. So far, the firm-as-investment literature has said little about these organizations, despite their growing importance, particularly in high-growth, technologically-advanced industries like software and biotechnology. Further research in this area is sorely needed. Earlier versions of this article were presented at George Mason University’s “Seminars in Austrian Economics IV: Inside the Black Box,” October 1997; the Austrian Scholars Conference 4, Auburn University, April 1998; and Copenhagen Business School’s RESPECT workshop, November 1998.     

The Mundane Economics of the Austrian School

The Austrian School of economics—the causal-realist, marginalist, subjectivist tradition established by Carl Menger in 1871—has experienced a remarkable renaissance over the last five decades. It is not always clear, however, exactly what distinguishes the Austrian School from other traditions, schools of thought, approaches, or movements within economics and its sister disciplines. This paper argues that Austrian economics, while part of a broader tradition emphasizing the coordination of the market order, is nonetheless a distinct kind of economic analysis, and that its essence is not subjectivism, the market process, or spontaneous order, but what I call “mundane economics”—price theory, capital theory, monetary theory, business-cycle theory, and the theory of interventionism. Call this the “hard core” of Austrian economics. I argue that this hard core is (1) distinct, and not merely a verbal rendition of mid-twentieth-century neoclassical economics; (2) the unique foundation for applied Austrian analysis (political economy, social theory, business administration, and the like); and (3) a living, evolving body of knowledge, rooted in classic contributions of the past but not bound by them. Most Austrian economists from Menger to Rothbard devoted their energies to developing and communicating the principles of mundane economics, not because they failed to grasp the importance of time, uncertainty, knowledge, expectations, institutions, and market processes, but because they regarded these issues as subordinate to the main task of economic science, namely the construction of a more satisfactory theory of value, production, exchange, price, money, capital, and intervention.