THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FINANCIAL STATE ON FIRM DURATION ACROSS ENTRY COHORTS*

Recent theories of industry dynamics emphasize the role of financial frictions in determining post entry performance of firms. Testing these theories has been difficult because of the lack of financial data on small, young and private firms. Using a unique data set, T2LEAP, this paper considers the survival of new firms in Canadian manufacturing from a financial perspective. Duration analysis quantifies the effects of firm, industry and aggregate factors. Findings show that nonlinear effects are found with firm leverage. Finally, likelihood decompositions offer insights into the contributing factors to firm hazard for nine entry cohorts during the period 1985–1997.     

COST PASS‐THROUGH IN DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT MARKETS: THE CASE OF U.S. PROCESSED CHEESE*

In this paper, we estimate a mixed logit model for demand in the U.S. processed cheese market. The estimates are used to determine pass‐through rates of cost changes under different behavioral regimes. We find that, under collusion, the pass‐through rates for all brands fall between 21% and 31% while, under Nash‐Bertrand price competition, the range of pass‐through rates is between 73% and 103%. The mixed logit model provides a more flexible framework for studying pass‐through rates than the logit model since the curvature of the demand functions depends upon the empirical distribution of consumer types.     

IS EAST ASIA FIT FOR AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF A HIGHER DEGREE OF MONETARY COOPERATION IN EAST ASIA

This paper attempts to make a contribution to the recent search for a suitable assessment of the economic feasibility of a higher degree of monetary cooperation in East Asia. By using a structural vector autoregression approach as well as a generalized purchasing power parity approach, we find that a larger group of appropriately selected East Asian economies does satisfy the macroeconomic conditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The East Asian group consists of four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and four Northeast Asian economies (Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan). This finding presents a striking contrast to the existing research results whose policy recommendation has generally been that countries in East Asia should start with a smaller subgroup currency area. It is time that many East Asian economies as a region made a serious effort to pursue a higher degree of monetary cooperation among themselves for forming an OCA.     

Estimating Trend Inflation Based on Unobserved Components Model: Is It Correlated with the Inflation Gap?

Building on the work of Stock and Watson (2007), this paper empirically shows that a negative correlation between innovations to trend inflation and the inflation gap plays an important role in the dynamics of postwar U.S. inflation. Additional features that we incorporate in our model include regime‐switching inflation gap persistence and association between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The resulting estimate of trend inflation is smooth, and our model provides superior out‐of‐sample forecasts than Stock and Watson's (2007) unobserved components model with stochastic volatility or than Atkeson and Ohanian's (2001) random walk model does.     

SYNCHRONIZATION OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS BETWEEN GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL AND UNITED STATES,EUROPE, JAPAN,AND OIL MARKET: CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME†

Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with block exogeneity, this study examines the impacts of external shocks originating from the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the oil market as well as those of the regional shocks, on the oil‐rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), viewed as a prospective monetary union. It takes into account the implications of the shock impacts for selecting an appropriate common exchange rate arrangement. The SVAR variance decomposition and impulse response analyses strongly underscore the relative impacts of the global shocks over the regional ones. The findings imply that the world's two major currencies, the U.S. dollar and the euro, should figure highly in a GCC's common basket of currencies. Accordingly, a transitional movement to a more flexible exchange rate arrangement such as a basket peg may be desirable for these trade‐dependent economies in the long run, as is argued in the optimal currency literature for developing countries. (JEL E52, O52, C22)     

Determinants of Labor Market Participation and Wages of North Korean Female Refugees in South Korea

This paper uses data from a survey on 289 North Korean female refugees who arrived in South Korea in 2007 to understand the determinants of their economic adaption in the South Korean labor market. More specifically, we look at the effects of job finding channels and government policies on the labor market participation and wages of these women. We find that job finding through both personal contacts and public employment networks increases the probability of finding employment, but the former, especially job finding through contacts with South Koreans, is the most effective route to finding employment. In addition, jobs with higher wages are acquired in employment attained from South Korean referrals, followed by South Korean government agencies and those from North Korean refugee contacts. We further find that labor market participation is negatively affected by both public benefits and private transfers possibly because of increases in the reservation wages of job seekers.     

供应链视角下的企业社会责任管理研究

将社会责任延伸到包括核心企业的整个供应链视角,探讨供应链视角下的企业社会责任管理,并分别从供应链视角下企业社会责任的整体管理和供应链视角下核心企业的社会责任管理两个方面构建具体的社会责任管理模型,以期对企业社会责任的研究有所拓展和创新.     

TRANSACTION COSTS AND EXPORT CHANNELS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES: THE CASE OF KOREA

This paper develops hypotheses concerning firm- and industry-specific factors determining the relative importance to manufacturing exporters of different export channels in relatively high transaction cost Korean small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Data from a Korean SME survey demonstrate the validity of several hypotheses and reveal that most sample SMEs rate the external support for international marketing rather low. The paper offers recommendations for reforming such support.