Selected Economic Analysis at the Antitrust Division: The Year in Review

Of the many activitiesof the Antitrust Division of theU.S. Department of Justice, we havesummarized some that raise interestingeconomic issues. We describe recentimprovements in the methodology to beused in ``coordinated effects' analysisof mergers. We also discuss four casesbrought by the DOJ that raise issues ofmarket definition, the influence ofcommon partial ownership of competitors,and the effects of fringe suppliers inconstraining collusion by large firms.     

Research Methods for Examining Independence Issues: Experimental and Economics-of-Auditing Approaches

Recent corporate failures in Australia and overseas have led many to question both the perceived and actual independence of auditors. We believe that it is unlikely that there is a general lack of independence among auditors or, at the other extreme, that there have been no breaches of independence. We suggest the need for research on factors that affect lack of actual independence. Research is also required on what factors affect independence as perceived by users of accounting reports. This paper outlines the research methods issues in the design of such studies.     

Sub-Replication and Replenishing Premium: Efficient Pricing of Multi-State Lookbacks

The direct valuation procedure of performing discounted expectation to obtain the prices of multi-state lookback options may lead to insurmountable complexity and numerical difficulties. The computation may require numerical differentiation of the joint distribution function of the extremum values, then followed by numerical integration over a semi-infinite domain. In this paper, we illustrate the use of an alternative approach that significantly simplifies the calculations of multi-state lookback option prices. The financial intuition behind the new approach involves the choice of a sub-replicating portfolio and the adoption of the corresponding replenishing strategy to achieve the subsequent full replication of the derivative. The replenishing premium is obtained by performing the integration of an appropriate distribution function over the range of asset price within which under replication occurs. The sub-replication and replenishment procedures may be utilized as hedging strategies for the lookback options. The pricing and hedging properties of multi-state lookback options are also discussed. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?

We examine the effect of forward sale (pre-sale) activities on the volatility of spot prices in the real estate market. The abundance of pre-sales data and major changes in regulatory control on the pre-sale market during the 90's in Hong Kong allow us to undertake empirical tests using Hong Kong's real estate data. Our results show that the volatility of spot prices increased significantly after forward sales were severely dampened by regulatory control measures introduced in 1994, but decreased again when the measures were partly relaxed in 1998. The results contribute to the long lasting debate on whether the introduction of a futures market reduces the volatility of spot prices. Previous studies were mainly conducted in markets with low transaction costs, notably financial markets. By utilizing the unique regulatory changes in the pre-sale market of Hong Kong, we are able to conduct an experiment on the conditional volatility of spot prices in a high information-cost environment, thereby shedding light on the important role of forward housing contracts in providing price expectation information for spot trading.     

Collectivist values for learning in organizational relationships in China: the role of trust and vertical coordination

Partners must engage in integrative interaction in order to combine diverse expertise and experiences into effective learning. Results from 103 pairs of customer and supplier organizations in China indicate that trust and vertical coordination are useful ways to characterize this integrative interaction and together they promote learning. Structural equation analysis suggests that collectivist but not individualist values are important foundations for integrative interaction between partners that result in learning. These findings were interpreted as reaffirming the value of effective relationships for coordination between partners and suggesting that collectivist values can be a source of effective organizational relationships.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2005–2006

This paper covers the activities of the Economic Analysis Group (EAG) of the Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice, during 2005–2006. It describes the economic analysis undertaken by EAG in several important investigations, appellate matters, and other activities as an advocate for competition.The views contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Department of Justice.     

华盛顿大学中国财政体系亟待改革

中国走上市场经济转轨25年之后，人们对于收入和地区差距、官员腐败和经济保障等发展不平衡问题的关注与日俱增。中国新一代领导人提出“科学发展观”．的确表现出纠正这些不平衡和社会矛盾的意向。然而．要真正纠正这些长期积累的问题．关键之一在于改革政府间财政体系。     

Bank Lending to Native American Applicants: An Investigation of Mortgage Flows and Government Guarantee Programs on Native American Lands

We investigate the efficacy of government guarantee programs for mortgage loans made on tribal lands by comparing lending outcomes for White applicants and Native Americans (NAs) living on- and off reservation lands. Simultaneous equations models with the loan-to-income ratio endogenous indicate both on- and off-reservation NA applicants experience higher conditional denial rates compared with otherwise similar White applicants. NAs living on-reservation are equally as likely to be approved for mortgage loans as off-reservation NAs. On-reservation applicants self-select lower loan-to-income ratios, and are held to a higher standard for this credit variable, likely because lower housing values and other economic variables challenge on-reservation applicants. Our findings suggest lack of financial resources, lack of applicant education about and experience with the mortgage process, low creditworthiness, and lender reluctance to confront burdensome bureaucracy limit on-reservation guarantee program success.     

Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand

This paper examines the effect of the structural changes arising from the globalisation of production and innovation and from technological changes on the environment. Drawing on theories of international production from international business and innovation, we assess the impact of long-term technological change and changes in international production on the international division of labour and energy demand. We select two industrial sectors with different technological characteristics (the textile, clothing and footwear sector and the chemical sector). We examine the effects of the globalisation of production and of technological change on these two sectors on the level of industrial production and resource intensity in different regions and countries over the last 30 years. We speculate on the impact of globalisation of production and innovation in future pervasive technologies—information technology, biotechnology and nano-technology. The implications of these developments on industrial greenhouse gases emissions are assessed.     

The rise of defensive engineering: how personal liability considerations impact decision-making

Abstract

Based on a survey of Australian engineers (n = 275) this paper examines the impact of personal liability considerations on engineering decision-making. Almost all respondents who make high-stakes decisions saw questions of liability as having both positive (90%) and negative (87%) impacts. Our analysis shows that awareness of personal liability acts to focus the attention of many engineers on the moral dimension of their work. However, it also encourages more expensive decision-making, inhibition of innovation and professional paralysis. We argue that while personal legal liability is a legitimate way to focus engineers’ attention on the potential impact of their work, a problem arises when decision-makers are held responsible for disasters over which they had little control. The focus then shifts to ‘defensive engineering’ practices that are aimed at limiting individual liability rather than disaster prevention. Legal processes that are seen to unfairly allocate blame do not encourage practices that support future disaster prevention.