The Cost of Nominal Rigidity in NNS Models

We present a model with Calvo wage and price setting, capital formation, and estimated rules for government spending and monetary policy. Our model captures many aspects of U.S. data, including the volatility that has been observed in various efficiency gaps. We estimate the cost of nominal rigidity—welfare under flexible wages and prices minus welfare with nominal rigidities—to be as much as 3% of consumption each period. Since there are interest rate rules that virtually eliminate this cost, our model suggests that—contrary to Lucas's (2003) assertion—there is considerable room for improvement in demand management policy.     

Liquidity Risk,Bank Networks,and the Value of Joining the Federal Reserve System

Reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal loan demand was one reason for founding the Federal Reserve System. Nevertheless, less than 8% of state‐chartered banks joined the Fed in its first decade. Banks facing high liquidity risk from seasonal loan demand were more likely to join the Fed in its first decade. We also find evidence consistent with the notion that banks could obtain some indirect access to the discount window through interbank transfers. Some banks apparently joined the Fed to pass through discount window liquidity to other banks via the interbank network.  Joining the Fed increased member banks’ lending.     

PUBLIC FINANCE AND INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES OVER GLOBALIZATION STRATEGIES

Do preferences toward globalization strategies vary across public‐finance regimes? In this paper, we use data on individual preferences toward immigration and trade policy to examine how pre‐tax and post‐tax cleavages differ across globalization strategies and state fiscal jurisdictions. High exposure to immigrant fiscal pressures reduces support for freer immigration among U.S. natives, especially the more skilled. The magnitude of this post‐tax fiscal cleavage is comparable to the pre‐tax labor‐market effects of skill itself. There is no public‐finance variation in opinion over trade policy, consistent with U.S. trade policy having negligible fiscal‐policy impacts. Public finance thus appears to shape opinions toward globalization strategies.     

The Effectiveness of Indigenous Job Search Strategies

This analysis uses the only existing large-scale longitudinal survey of Indigenous Australians to examine the effects of job search behaviour over an 18-month period starting from March 1996. Job search methods were not generally related to the probability of finding and retaining employment when a range of other personal and regional factors are taken into account. Search intensity (as measured by the number of jobs applied for) had a significant effect on the prospect of finding employment, but was unrelated to the probability of job retention.     

Network Games

In contexts ranging from public goods provision to information collection, a player's well-being depends on his or her own action as well as on the actions taken by his or her neighbours. We provide a framework to analyse such strategic interactions when neighbourhood structure, modelled in terms of an underlying network of connections, affects payoffs. In our framework, individuals are partially informed about the structure of the social network. The introduction of incomplete information allows us to provide general results characterizing how the network structure, an individual's position within the network, the nature of games (strategic substitutes vs. complements and positive vs. negative externalities) and the level of information shape individual behaviour and payoffs.     

Pairwise-Difference Estimation of a Dynamic Optimization Model

We develop a new estimation methodology for dynamic optimization models with unobserved shocks and deterministic accumulation of the observed state variables. Investment models are an important example of such models. Our pairwise-difference approach exploits two common features of these models: (1) the monotonicity of the agent's decision (policy) function in the shocks, conditional on the observed state variables; and (2) the state-contingent nature of optimal decision making which implies that, conditional on the observed state variables, the variation in observed choices across agents must be due to randomness in the shocks across agents. We illustrate our procedure by estimating a dynamic trading model for the milk production quota market in Ontario, Canada.     

Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market

We examine the informational effects of M&As by investigating whether bank mergers improve banks' ability to screen borrowers. By exploiting a data set in which we observe a measure of a borrower's default risk that the lenders observe only imperfectly, we find evidence of these informational improvements. Mergers lead to a closer correspondence between interest rates and individual default risk: after a merger, risky borrowers experience an increase in the interest rate, while nonrisky borrowers enjoy lower interest rates. These informational benefits appear to derive from improvements in information processing resulting from the merger, rather than from explicit information sharing on individual customers among the merging parties. Our evidence suggests that part of these informational improvements stem from the consolidated banks using "hard" information more intensively.     

Financial Markets Where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices

We model a financial market where some traders of a risky asset do not fully appreciate what prices convey about others' private information. Markets comprising solely such “cursed” traders generate more trade than those comprising solely rationals. Because rationals arbitrage away distortions caused by cursed traders, mixed markets can generate even more trade. Per‐trader volume in cursed markets increases with market size; volume may instead disappear when traders infer others' information from prices, even when they dismiss it as noisier than their own. Making private information public raises rational and “dismissive” volume, but reduces cursed volume given moderate noninformational trading motives.     

Dynamic Competition,Valuation, and Merger Activity

We model the interactions between product market competition and investment valuation within a dynamic oligopoly. To our knowledge, the model is the first continuous‐time corporate finance model in a multiple firm setting with heterogeneous products. The model is tractable and amenable to estimation. We use it to relate current industry characteristics with firm value and financial decisions. Unlike most corporate finance models, it produces predictions regarding parameter magnitudes as well their signs. Estimates of the model's parameters indicate strong linkages between model‐implied and actual values. The paper uses the estimated parameters to predict rivals’ returns near merger announcements.