Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Both unconditional mixed normal distributions and GARCH modelswith fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employedin the literature for modeling financial data. We consider amixed normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure(termed MN-GARCH) which allows for conditional variance in eachof the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components.Special cases and relationships with previously proposed specificationsare discussed and stationarity conditions are derived. For theempirically most relevant GARCH(1,1) case, the conditions forexistence of arbitrary integer moments are given and analyticexpressions of the unconditional skewness, kurtosis, and autocorrelationsof the squared process are derived. Finally, employing dailyreturn data on the NASDAQ index, we provide a detailed empiricalanalysis and compare both the in-sample fit and out-of-sampleforecasting performance of the MN-GARCH as well as recentlyproposed Markov-switching models. We show that the MN-GARCHapproach can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditionalvariance process in which the components' volatility dynamicshave a clearly distinct behavior, which is, for example, compatiblewith the well-known leverage effect.     

Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve

We propose an affine term structure model which accommodatesnonlinearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-terminterest rate. Such nonlinearities are a consequence of discretebeta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds.We derive iterative closed-form formula for the whole yieldcurve dynamics that can be estimated using a linearized Kalmanfilter. Fitting the model on US data, we collect empirical evidenceof its potential in estimating conditional volatility and correlationacross yields.     

The Merger betwee Volvo-Renault VI-Mack Trucks：The Keys to A Successful Marriage

Enterprises Merger ＆ Acquisition（M＆A） are very common in the current world. Although there have been many successful cases, the difficulties are always seen during the process, for instance, the different brands and cultures are the greatest blocks they had to face up after the integration. Recently, a successful case of M＆A of three brands has been conducted in France, The merger of Volvo Trucks with Renault VI and Mack created a new heavy goods vehicles group. Maybe we can learn something from the Three-brand integration.     

The Nature of Technological Knowledge: Philosophical Reflections and Educational Consequences

Technological knowledge has a normative component that scientific knowledge does not have. When we have knowledge of a computer, that often comprises normative judgements: it functions well or it does not function well. In knowledge of technical norms, rules and standards as another type of technological knowledge we also find a normative component. This characteristic has consequences for our assessment of knowledge. For scientific knowledge truth is the ultimate condition. For knowledge of norms, rules and standards as a type of technological knowledge this the condition is problematic. They refer to things that do not exist yet, but are still to be designed or made. Nor truth, but effectiveness is the condition here. For technology education the normative component is important. Pupils must learn to make judgements about effectiveness, as this is a prominent characteristic of technological knowledge, that makes it distinct from scientific knowledge. Pupils must also learn to deal with ethical and other values when doing technological project work.     

Reversible Relationship between Quantitative and Qualitative Data in Self-Consciousness Research: A Normative Semiotic Model for the Phenomenological Dialogue between Data and Capta

The aim of this study was to explore modes of integration of quantitative and qualitative data to verify existence of psychological constructs. Data obtained with a Likert-type rating scale and with narrative accounts of significant life-events were compared and integrated via logical analysis to examine the psychological construct of self-consciousness. Undergraduates between 17 and 32 years of age (78 females and 23 males) participated. Psychometric analysis of the scale classified the subjects focus of self-consciousness (public and private) into three levels: high, average or low. Independent judges evaluated self-consciousness profiles from the narrative accounts. Analysis verified the compatibility between self-consciousness scale measurements and self-consciousness profiles on narrative accounts. The results illustrate possibilities for and limitations of such comparisons, and also suggest criteria for comparing the same phenomenon in different contexts. Guidelines for choice of instrumentation in gathering data for research and practice are also presented.     

Monetary Union,Trade Integration,and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe

This paper studies the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation in late 19th century Europe. We estimate a gravity model and show that tighter monetary integration was associated with substantially higher trade, as in recent studies using contemporary data. For instance, the Austro-Hungarian monetary union improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. To explain this, we build and estimate a simple model where greater monetary integration weakens the current account constraint by fostering business cycle co-movements.     

Will Corporate Income Taxation Survive?

Summary This paper explores the future of corporate income taxation, with special reference to the Netherlands. We review the empirical literature on a variety of distortions and arbitrage opportunities and pay due attention to effect sizes. An attempt is made to compare the size of various distortions in terms of the ex-post revenue impact of a corporate tax reduction. Thus, we learn which distortions impose the most serious threat to government revenue. This integrative approach allows us to understand recent developments in corporate tax regimes in the EU. Erasmus University Rotterdam, CPB, CESifo and Tinbergen Institute. Corresponding address: P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, e-mail: demooij@few.eur.nl. I thank Leon Bettendorf, Joeri I thank Leon Bettendorf, Joeri Gorter and Gerbert Romijn for their support and discussion in constructing Table 3 and Sijbren Cnossen and two anonymous referees for useful comments.     

我国系统性金融风险因素分析和防范对策

我国金融业改革开放过程中,面临着发生系统性金融风险的压力,主要表现为金融机构的流动性风险,不良资产、资本金不足、法人治理结构和内控机制不完善,金融市场不发达,以及宏观经济波动、汇率和利率变动、资本流动对金融体系的冲击。因此,需要完善金融法规框架,培育和发展金融市场,增强金融机构防范风险和竞争能力,提高金融监管水平,完善金融机构市场退出机制和建立金融安全网,建立防范和化解系统性金融风险的长效机制。     

Accounting graduates' perceptions of skills emphasis in undergraduate courses: an investigation from two Victorian universities

This study investigated the emphasis placed on technical and generic skills developed during undergraduate accounting courses from the graduate perspective. It is motivated by two issues. First, calls by the accounting profession and international education committees regarding the professional adequacy of graduates. Second, the challenge facing educators and professional bodies to design accounting courses that address a diverse range of needs from students, the educational philosophy of the institution, and the changing dynamics of global business. Data obtained from 310 graduates from two Victorian universities provided insights into the types of skills development considered necessary for a successful accounting career.