Anchoring Induced Biases in Consumer Price Negotiations

Two studies were conducted with the aim of demonstrating anchoring induced biases in consumer price negotiations.In Study 1, 96 undergraduate students of business administration who were recruited as subjects played the role of buyers of a condominium. All subjects were given the same market information. They were then asked to state whether their reservation price was higher or lower than an arbitrary price example (irrelevant anchor) that for different groups of subjects was either low or high. Finally, subjects indicated their reservation price. As would be predicted if adjustments from the anchor are insufficient, the indicated reservation price was lower when the anchor was low than when it was high.In Study 2, employing 64 undergraduate students of psychology who conducted dyad negotiations about the price of condominiums, the effect of the irrelevant anchor on the initially indicated reservation price was replicated. In addition, an anchoring effect of the seller's initial offer was observed. The results also revealed effects of both irrelevant anchor and initial offer on the purchase price.From a public policy point of view, the results imply that consumers may be strongly influenced by irrelevant anchors provided by sellers. Provision of accurate market price information may however lessen the impact of irrelevant anchors.     

Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates

This paper investigates the nature of seasonality (deterministic and/or stochastic) in dry bulk freight rates, and measures and compares it across freight rates of different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handysize), contract duration (spot, 1-year and 3-year time charters) and market conditions (peaks and troughs). Although, there is no evidence of stochastic seasonality, deterministic seasonality in freight rates is found to be varying from −18.2% to 15.3% in individual months within a year. Spot rates for larger vessels exhibit higher seasonal fluctuations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are eliminated as the contract duration increases. Also, for each vessel size, the seasonality declines as the contract duration rises. Asymmetries in seasonal fluctuations in freight rates over different market conditions are attributed to the high and low elasticities of supply expected under the respective market conditions. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as timing of dry-docking, chartering strategies and switching between freight markets.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

Entrepreneurship and corporate governance

Conclusions The main message of this article is that Austrians can continue to work within the contractual, or Coasian, approach to the firm in elaborating the insights discussed above. In particular, the problem of corporate governance, and the corollary view that firms are investments, belongs at the forefront of Austrian research on the theory of the firm. Emphasis should thus be placed on the plans and actions of the capitalist-entrepreneur. A particularly undeveloped area concerns the provision of capital to small, “entrepreneurial” ventures. Most of the literature on governance focuses on the large corporation, and the use of stock and bond markets to govern these organizations. Equally important, however, are smaller, privately held firms, financed with venture capital or other forms of investment. So far, the firm-as-investment literature has said little about these organizations, despite their growing importance, particularly in high-growth, technologically-advanced industries like software and biotechnology. Further research in this area is sorely needed. Earlier versions of this article were presented at George Mason University’s “Seminars in Austrian Economics IV: Inside the Black Box,” October 1997; the Austrian Scholars Conference 4, Auburn University, April 1998; and Copenhagen Business School’s RESPECT workshop, November 1998.     

精益六西格玛的突破——层级设计使两种互斥方法取长补短

精益与六西格玛的关系是重大六西格玛会议中广受欢迎的话题,也是许多书籍和文章的主题.两者间的关系看上去似乎简单,但是实际应用起来却相当富有挑战性,因为将两者结合起来的方法实在是数不胜数.