This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Do Fiscal Deficits Influence Current Accounts? A Case Study of India”

This paper examines the effects of fiscal deficits on the current account deficits in the Indian economy. In many developing countries, fiscal deficits are mostly financed through monetization, causing crowding out of private investment expenditures. However, fiscal deficits in India are mostly financed through official borrowings from various external sources, leading to higher interest payments and outgoings on the external account. Such a policy could eventually precipitate balance of payments crises despite favorable trade account and real exchange rate. Data over three decades for the Indian economy show that, in addition to the real exchange rate and the ratio of private investment to GDP, fiscal deficits significantly contribute to the current account deficits.     

A brief study of age specific birth proportions,Japan and Singapore

The suitability of age-specific birth proportions (ASBP), or percentage distribution of births, as a rough and ready index of fertility change was analyzed by establishing a theoretical framework for its limitations and uses. The discussion suggested that the utility of ASBP as an indicator of fertility change depends on the characteristics and behavior of the population being considered. The concept was then empirically applied to birth trends in Japan and Singapore for 2 different time periods. Analysis suggested that ASBP trends in Japan reflected changes in age-specific fertility rates relative to general fertility rate as well as trends in parity distribution. The Singapore analysis was more complicated, raising different issues. As very limited empirical work has been done on ASBPs, the utility of ASBPs as an indicator of fertility change cannot be definitely ascertained. It was suggested however that ASBP trends may be applicable in countries where the age distribution of fertile-aged women is fairly stable. More empirical research should be done on ASBP trends in other countries, the behavior of A matrix as discussed in this paper, and useful empirical relationship of ASBP with other fertility measures.     

Dynamic effects of externalities,optimal saving and economic growth

Conclusion Recognizing the fact that provision of mixed public goods can result in both consumption externalities of the Samuelsonian variety as well as production externalities we set out to extend the earlier results of Rao and Kalpagam (1977) on the effect of public goods on economic growth. In so doing, we considered three standard specifications of production externalities and enlarged the concept of consumption displacement. Our basic conclusion is that the results of our earlier paper remain valid under the more general conditions set out in this paper.     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.     

美国联邦政府政务公开制度的实践及启示

美国联邦政府的政务公开制度包括两大方面：政府信息的公开和政府会议的公开。规范前者的法律是《信息自由法》和《隐私法》，规范后者的法律是《阳光下的政府法》和《联邦咨询委员会法》。两者都与政务公开和公民的知情权有关。本文通过对四部法案背景、主要规定的介绍，揭示了美国政务公开制度的核心内容，同时考察了政务公开法案实施的现状。最后，本文还结合中国实际，论述了我们可以借鉴的方面。     

从对冲套利看可转债资产替换

在缺乏卖空机制的环境下，可转债相对价值的实现将主要来源于转债与股票之间的资产替换。尤其是在杠杆放大的资产替代策略下，可转债投资的盈利模式将出现根本性变化，股票价格的波动成为影响策略应用效果的最重要因素。本从对冲套利的角度，通过对等额和杠杆放大资产替换策略的模拟与分析，就资产替换策略的应用环境、杠杆选择与实证效果等问题进行了较为详尽的研究。     

非洲大陆石油储产量稳步增长

近10年来,非洲大陆探明石油储量增长了25％,截至2003年1月1日已达到774.2亿桶,相当于东欧及前苏联地区储量的总和(793.6亿桶),为亚太地区储量(387.1亿桶)的两倍。自2002年起,随着几个大型油田的陆续投产,非洲石油产量已显著增加,目前为680万桶/日。     

Enterprise Risk Management and the Cost of Capital

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a process that manages all risks in an integrated, holistic fashion by controlling and coordinating any offsetting risks across the enterprise. This research investigates whether the adoption of the ERM approach affects firms' cost of equity capital. We restrict our analysis to the U.S. insurance industry to control for unobservable differences in business models and risk exposures across industries. We simultaneously model firms' adoption of ERM and the effect of ERM on the cost of capital. We find that ERM adoption significantly reduces firm's cost of capital. Our results suggest that cost of capital benefits are one answer to the question how ERM can create value.