Bayesian inference in a time varying cointegration model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper, we develop a new time varying parameter model which permits cointegration. We use a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP–VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving the Fisher effect.     

Secondary level engineering professional development: content, pedagogy, and challenges

The design of this study was a multiple case study conducted to examine the knowledge, pedagogical principles, and challenges involved in providing engineering-oriented professional development for teachers at the secondary school level. A set of criteria was used to identify five representative projects for analysis in the US. A variety of tools and processes were used to gather data including on-site observations, interviews, focus groups and document reviews. Results of the study indicate that engineering professional development tends to be based on work focused on curriculum development and implementation. Given the distinct design orientation of engineering, it is not surprising that the focus of engineering-oriented professional development tends to concentrate on engaging activities, with a primary focus on process rather than content. A key outcome of this study was an observed lack of a clearly formulated and articulated conceptual foundation for secondary level engineering. Regarding pedagogy, the researchers identified a heavy emphasis on modeling and applied learning. At the same time, the researchers observed a lack of emphasis on reflection and analysis of the pedagogical processes and techniques used to shape teachers’ ability to teach engineering to their students. The findings of the study also include concerns raised by teachers as they engage in engineering professional development. These include concerns about technical knowledge, particularly with the use of specialized software applications and other tools, as well as with practical issues such as time, resources, and availability of appropriate curriculum.     

Financial reporting and information asymmetry: an empirical analysis of the SEC's information-supplying exemption for foreign companies

This paper examines empirically the effects of domicile and SEC registration and reporting requirements on information asymmetry. We compare the adverse-selection component of the relative bid–ask spread (our measure of information asymmetry) for three samples of Nasdaq NMS companies that trade in different home markets and are subject to different standards of disclosure: registered U.S. companies, registered non-Canadian foreign companies, and unregistered non-Canadian foreign companies covered by the information-supplying exemption of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. We find that the adverse-selection component is not significantly larger for the two foreign samples, and it is not reliably different for the registered and unregistered foreign samples. Therefore, we are unable to document that less stringent SEC registration and reporting requirements for foreign companies are associated with greater information asymmetry among investors for non-U.S. securities traded on Nasdaq.     

Examining Management Accounting Change as Rules and Routines: The Effect of Rule Precision

This study examines change in management accounting practices as change in rules and routines. Informed by the institutional theory‐inspired framework of Burns and Scapens (2000) , the rules and routines relating to capital expenditure controls in a capital‐intensive organisation are analysed. We explain how preciseness of rules affects not only the coupling of rules to routines, but also the emergence of multiple routines, enhancing the understanding of how management accounting practices remain stable and/or change over time. These results extend and refine recent research relating to management accounting change and offer new empirical insights into practice.     

An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out-of-sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan-Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal and Tsiveriotis-Fernandes models outperform the Brennan-Schwartz model.     

The status of biotehnology-based innovation

This paper contributes to the debate surrounding the question of whether biotechnology, particularly its applications in agricultural and food-related industries, should be regarded as revolutionary or evolutionary (with some reservations about the vaildity of teh question). The potential to create a revolutionary techno-economic paradigm shift does exist but it is currently systems. It is also important to consider the motivations underlying statements about the revolutionary/ evolutionary nature of biotechnology, as some such statements are intended to influence events rather than to reflect them. The impact of small firms on the direction and place of revolutionary change in these industries is likely to be marginal, unlike the situation in the early phases of teh electronics/IT revolution. At present the lack of integration of policy initiatives by national governments and the EC is a major factor discouraging the rapid implementation of change.     

Sick of work or too sick to work? Evidence on self-reported health shocks and early retirement from the BHPS

We follow individuals as they retire using discrete-time hazard models applied to a stock sample from 12 waves of the British Household Panel Survey. We use a generalised ordered probit model to explore the existence of reporting bias and to purge the self-reported measure of health of this bias. This model takes into account the possibility that anticipated retirement may influence reporting of health. There is evidence that health shocks are a determinant of retirement age. This is the case for both men and women and is observed for both health limitations and a measure based on latent health status derived from the generalised ordered probit model. While the size of the health effect varies according to how we measure health, the relative effect is large compared to the other variables, and in particular when compared to the effects of private pensions. However numerical simulations show that this high hazard ratio interacts with the, relatively low, incidence of new health limitations among the age group of interest to generate only a modest number of excess early retirements. Further, our results do not show evidence that the health status of their partner affects the hazard of early retirement for both men and women. Having an employed partner does reduce the hazard of early retirement.     

Avatar-based learning in Second Life

Over the years, Second Life has provided ways for the world of academia to put creativity lending to immersive education, distance learning, knowledge sharing, faculty networking and many other ways to enhance the collective educational community＇s efforts in the real world. The success of such projects within Second Life can be credited to many innovative educators, academics and students who have chosen to utilize Second Life in education. Second Life was honored at the 59th Annual Technology ＆ Engineering Emmy Awards for advancing the development of online sites with user-generated content in 2008. Second Life is an open platform where information is generally freely available to all residents. This freedom is a mixed blessing. While on the one hand, free and open content promote creativity through what is known as ＂derivative works＂, which means work based on something someone has done previously, on the other hand it has a tendency of not crediting people properly for original innovative work. This research aims to investigate perceptions of using and continuance decisions of using Second Life Virtual Classroom as learning tools in the existing life. The research will use web based questionnaire to gather respondents. Particularly, the questionnaire surveys participants＇ perceptions of the usefulness, ease of use, perceived value, perceived quality, satisfaction, and expectation of Second Life Virtual Classroom as learning tools and their intention to re-use Second Life Virtual Classroom in education. It also questions the factors that influence participants＇ perceptions.     

Speed Bankruptcy: A Firewall to Future Crises

During the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. government purchased large equity stakes in major financial institutions. The author argues that another source of equity was available : the long-term bonds issued by these same banks. Overnight debt-to-equity conversions, or what the author refers to as “speed bankruptcy,” could have helped restore these firms to health, while at the same time ending the implicit government guarantee of big-bank debt. While many prominent economists have proposed such conversions, the practical details have received little attention. The author addresses key legal concerns, the political viability of such conversions, and how they fit in with other proposals such as contingent convertibles and funeral planning.