On local indeterminacy and endogenous cycles in Ramsey models with heterogeneous households

It is well-known that endogenous cycles can occur in Ramsey models with heterogeneous households and borrowing constraints. In this note, we address the issue of robustness in the more general case of endogenous labor supply and we explain the occurrence of local indeterminacy under progressive taxation.

An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model

Measures of potential output and the output gap are increasingly being developed and used to concisely quantify and monitor the risk of price accelerations stemming from rises in aggregate demand that are not met by a corresponding increase in supply. They often play a prominent role in the price determination mechanisms of macroeconometric models. In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model — and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model. More specifically, we exploit the fact that the investment function can be thought of as a relationship transforming desired gross additions to capacity output into capital accumulation by means of a conversion factor (the optimal capital/output ratio). Thus, if one removes the component of investment decisions that stems from changes in the relative price of the production factors, (i.e. in the optimal capital/output ratio), then a measure of the desired gross addition to capacity may be constructed. The results draw a cyclical picture of the degree of capacity utilisation for the period 1970–1997 that is roughly in line with those produced by the Wharton and Hodrick–Prescott filter approaches, as well as with the pictures resulting from the ISAE, IMF, European Commission and OECD measures of the output gap. Our investment-function-based measure appears to be a promising indicator of the pressure exerted on prices by demand accelerations. Its empirical properties are, on the whole, acceptable and plausible.     

Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers

Research Summary : How can strategic decision makers overcome inertia when dealing with change? In this article we argue that cognitive flexibility (i.e., the ability to match the type of cognitive processing with the type of problem at hand) enables decision makers to achieve significantly higher decision‐making performance. We show that superior decision‐making performance is associated with using semiautomatic Type 1 cognitive processes when faced with well‐structured problems, and more deliberative Type 2 processes when faced with ill‐structured problems. Our findings shed light on the individual‐level mechanism behind organizational adaptation and complement recent work on strategic inertia. In addition, our findings extend management studies that have stressed the relevance of cognitive flexibility for responding to the demands of increasingly open, flexible, and rapidly changing organizations. Managerial Summary : Humans are creatures of habits. We tend to prefer known courses of action over new ones. In many cases, habits are good. However, when things change in unpredictable ways, the past may not be good guidance for the future. We argue that “cognitive flexibility”—the ability of understanding when to rely on habits vs. when to explore new courses of action—enables managers to switch from a “fast” decision mode, based on habits, to a “slow,” more deliberate decision mode that facilitates the exploration of new courses of action. Managers high in cognitive flexibility reflect on the situation at hand, recognize and value diversity in viewpoints, and integrate such diversity in their own decision processes. By valuing diversity, they are more likely to overcome inertia.     

A policy analysis to promote conservation and use of small millet underutilized species in India

Despite the important role of Neglected and Underutilized Species (NUS) in diversifying agriculture, supporting traditional farming systems and improving food and nutritional security particularly in marginal lands, very little attention is being paid to their mainstreaming in national policies and institutions. Based on a detailed review of the regulatory frameworks governing the conservation, sustainable use and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of plant genetic resources and the circulation and registration of seeds and improved varieties, this paper discusses the extent to which the measures in place in India may favour or affect the conservation and use of NUS. In addition to these frameworks, in view of the major change realized by the 2013 National Food Security Act which has included coarse cereals in the country’s Public Distribution System (PDS), the paper also incorporates this latest policy in its analyses. A special focus is given to small millets, a group of species with unexploited economic and nutritional potential but extremely important for marginal communities’ food security and livelihoods. A set of policy recommendations and opportunities to explore are proposed to address the identified constraints with the purpose of creating a more supportive policy environment and enhancing the national capacity to promote NUS.     

Feeding management of dairy cattle affect grassland dynamics in an alpine pasture

The effect of different supplementary feeding rates for grazing cattle on high-altitude pastures dynamics was evaluated. A field experiment was carried out during three years in a subalpine pasture area of the Eastern Alps. The investigated pasture area was 40?ha, located between 1820 and 2230?m?a.s.l. Two paddocks were chosen in the experiment and two herds of 12 cattle each were kept in the two enclosures for 5 weeks. For the first herd (HS), the supplementary feeding rate was 4.8?kg?OM?head^?1 per day, while for the second herd (LS), the rate was 1.6?kg?OM?head^?1 per day. The amount of herbage consumed by each cattle was determined using the n-alkane technique. To monitor the pasture vegetation dynamics, eight metal exclusion cages were placed in each paddock to determine herbage growth, utilization rates, vegetation composition and animal grazing selectivity. Grazing behaviour of dairy cattle, in terms of herbage intake and species selection was affected by the different feeding rates. Cattle grazing Paddock HS consumed 1.9?kg?OM?day^?1 of herbage less than Paddock LS. In the LS paddock, cattle grazed higher phytomass rates. When the animals were fed by higher concentrate rates, a more selective grazing seemed to significantly increase the pasture necromass component. The lower grazing selectivity favoured the development of species as Nardus stricta and Deschampsia caespitosa, which are well known for their low palatability. Distinct vegetation dynamic patterns were observed, with a reduction of hair grass and an increase of legumes in the Paddock LS.     

Sustainable tourism planning and climate change adaptation in the Alps: a case study of winter tourism in mountain communities in the Dolomites

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is extremely sensitive to climate change. Winter tourism is closely related to climate variations, especially in mountain regions where resorts are heavily dependent on snow. This paper explores how to effectively integrate a climate change adaptation perspective with local discourses about sustainability and tourism, an increasing priority for policy-makers in the region and elsewhere. It reports on the development and application of a participatory decision support process for the analysis of adaptation strategies for local development of an Alpine tourism destination, Auronzo di Cadore (Dolomites, Italy). This experience significantly contributed to the idea that an efficient combination of modelling capabilities, decision support tools, and participatory processes can substantially improve decision-making for sustainability. The authors show that, in this case study, such a combination of methods and tools allowed for managing the involvement of local actors, stimulating local debates on climate change adaptation and possible consequences on winter tourism, encouraging creativity and smoothing potential conflicts, and easing the integration of the qualitative knowledge and the preferences of the involved actors with quantitative information. This contributed to an integrated sustainability assessment of alternative strategies for sustainable tourism planning.     

A cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of apremilast in patients with psoriatic arthritis in Italy

Abstract

Aims: The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis, as well as a budget impact analysis, on the use of apremilast for the treatment of adult patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA), within the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Methods: A Markov state transition cohort model, which was adapted to the Italian context, was used to compare the costs of the currently available treatments and of the patients’ quality of life with two alternative treatment sequences, with or without apremilast as pre-biologic therapy. Moreover, a budget impact model was developed based on the population of patients treated for PsA in Italy, who can be eligible for treatment with apremilast. The eligible population was represented by adult patients with PsA who had an inadequate response to or were intolerant to previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), for the approved indication, and for the treatment studied in the economic analytic model.

Results: This cost-effectiveness analysis estimated that the strategy of using apremilast before biologic therapy is cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €32,263.00 per QALY gained which is slightly over the normal threshold found in other Italian economic studies, which usually considers a 40-year-period. Conversely, the budget impact analysis was conducted over 3?years, and it led to an estimated annual saving of €1.6 million, €4.6 million and €5.5 million in the first, second and third year of apremilast commercialization, respectively, for a total saving of €11.75 million in 3?years.

Limitations: Limitations of this analysis include the absence of head-to-head trials comparing therapies included in the economic model, the lack of comparative long-term data on treatment efficacy, and the assumption of complete independence between the considered response rates to therapy.

Conclusion: The use of apremilast as a first option before the use of biologic agents may represent a cost-effective treatment strategy for patients with PsA who fail to respond to, or are intolerant to, previous DMARD therapy. In addition, based on a budget impact perspective, the use of apremilast may lead to cost savings to the Italian healthcare system.     

Belief-free price formation

We analyze security price formation in a dynamic setting in which long-lived dealers repeatedly compete for the opportunity to trade with short-lived retail traders. We characterize equilibria in which dealers’ pricing strategies are optimal irrespective of the private information that each dealer may possess. Thus, our model’s predictions are robust to different specifications of the dealers’ information structure. These equilibria reconcile, in a unified and parsimonious framework, price dynamics that are reminiscent of well-known stylized facts: excess price volatility, price to trading flow correlation, stochastic volatility and inventory-related trading.     

Updates management in mobile applications: iTunes versus Google Play

This paper focuses on a specific strategy that developers of mobile applications may use to stimulate demand: The release of updates. We develop a theoretical analysis that shows that developers have incentives to release updates when experiencing a drop in performance. The predictions of the model are then tested using an unbalanced panel of top 1,000 apps in iTunes and Google Play for five European countries. We estimate that while in iTunes the release of an update stimulates a 26% increase in download growth, in Google Play updates play a less significant role. This difference is partly due to systematic differences in apps and in developers operating in the two stores (“selection effect”), and partly to a lack of quality control on apps and updates in Google Play (“quality check effect”). These findings highlight the crucial importance of an appropriate management of updates as well as the relevance of institutional characteristics of the app stores.     

An organizational culture for all seasons? How cultural type dominance and strength influence different performance goals

Organizational culture might influence results, especially in public healthcare organizations characterized by strong professional control. This study investigates whether a specific culture type is most effective in fostering performances. We assess organizational culture through Competing Values Framework and use multivariate regression analysis to test the relationship between dominant culture and competitiveness and financial results. Based on 529 responses from senior managers of 59 organizations, we found that dominant rational and hierarchical culture types are associated, respectively, with higher competitiveness and better financial results. Enhancing a specific performance dimension might require cultural changes aimed to align values with targeted results.