Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?

This article uses a small set of variables – real GDP, the inflation rate and the short-term interest rate – and a rich set of models – atheoretical (time series) and theoretical (structural), linear and nonlinear, as well as classical and Bayesian models – to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the US real GDP. Comparing the performance of the models to the benchmark random-walk model by root mean-square errors, the two structural (theoretical) models, especially the nonlinear model, perform well on average across all forecast horizons in our ex post, out-of-sample forecasts, although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear atheoretical models perform the best. The nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante, out-of-sample forecast of the Great Recession, suggesting that developing forward-looking, microfounded, nonlinear, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.     

Forecasting US real house price returns over 1831–2013: evidence from copula models

Given the existence of nonnormality and nonlinearity in the data generating process of real house price returns over the period of 1831–2013, this article compares the ability of various univariate copula models, relative to standard benchmarks (naive and autoregressive models) in forecasting real US house price over the annual out-of-sample period of 1874–2013, based on an in-sample of 1831–1873. Overall, our results provide overwhelming evidence in favour of the copula models (Normal, Student’s t, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, Joe and Ali-Mikhail-Huq) relative to linear benchmarks, and especially for the Student’s t-copula, which outperforms all other models both in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability results. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for nonnormality and nonlinearity in the data generating process of real house price returns for the US economy for nearly two centuries of data.     

Stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners: does trade intensity matter?

We investigate the extent and manner of stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners and examine whether this is affected by trade intensity. Based on trade intensity, we classify Australia’s trading partners into major, medium and minor partners. We hypothesize that markets with greater (lower) trade intensity will be more (less) interdependent with Australia. We perform correlation (unconditional and conditional) analyses between Australia and its trading partners. Our results indicate that most of the markets that are highly correlated with Australia are its major trading partners. We conduct panel regression analysis to investigate whether trade intensity has any impact on the stock market correlations between Australia and its trading partners. The results show that trade intensity significantly and positively affect the correlations of Australia with its major trading partners. Thus, the results confirm our hypothesis that trade intensity drives stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners.     

An empirical study of the dimensionality of organizational justice and its relationship with organizational citizenship behaviour in the Indian context

Cross-cultural research shows that while the concerns about organizational justice may be universal, operationalization of justice standards is highly particularistic (Greenberg 2001). The present study explores the dimensionality of organizational justice in the Indian context. Apart from procedural justice, interpersonal justice and informational justice, another justice dimension, labelled as empowerment justice, emerged during the study. Next, the study tests the relationships between justice dimensions and Organ's (1988) 5-factor conceptualization of organizational citizenship behaviour (OCB), namely helping, compliance, sportsmanship, courtesy and civic virtue behaviours. The perception of empowerment justice influences helping, compliance, sportsmanship, and civic virtue dimensions of OCB. Interpersonal justice significantly predicts courtesy behaviour. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Fiscal policies, environmental pollution and economic growth

This paper develops a model of endogenous economic growth with special consideration to the role of productive public expenditure and environmental pollution; and analyses the properties of optimal fiscal policy in the steady state growth equilibrium. We consider the level of consumption as the source of pollution. Government allocates its tax revenue between pollution abatement expenditure and productive public expenditure. Optimum ratio of productive public expenditure to national income is equal to the competitive output share of the public input, when productive public expenditure is depicted as tax revenue minus abatement expenditure. However, the proportional income tax rate exceeds the competitive output share of the public input. There is no conflict between the social welfare maximizing solution and the growth rate maximizing solution in the steady state growth equilibrium. The unique steady state growth equilibrium appears to be a saddle-point when the growth rate is above a critical level and the steady state equilibrium growth rate in the market economy is not necessarily lower than the socially efficient growth rate.     

Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model

In order to address practical questions in credit portfolio management it is necessary to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm's own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. This paper builds on the methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., and Weiner, S.M., (2004), Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error correcting macroeconometric model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22, 2, 129–169.] and supplemented by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Treutler, B., and Weiner, S.M., (2006), Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk: a global perspective, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 38, Number 5, August 2006, 1211–1261.] which has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling in that it avoids the use of proprietary balance sheet and distance-to-default data, focusing on credit ratings which are more freely available.In this paper a country-specific macroeconometric risk-driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework of PSW (2004) is constructed, using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio but also opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale, as such a model can easily be linked to the GVAR model. The set of domestic factors is extended beyond those used in PSW (2004) in such a way that the risk-driver model is applicable for both retail and corporate credit risk. As such, the model can be applied to a total bank balance sheet, incorporating the correlation and diversification between both retail and corporate credit exposures.Assuming statistical over-identification restrictions, the results indicate that it is possible to construct a South African component for the GVAR model that can easily be integrated into the global component. From a practical application perspective the framework and model is particularly appealing since it can be used as a theoretically consistent correlation model within a South African-specific credit portfolio management tool.     

Knowledge flows within multinational corporations

Pursuing a nodal (i.e., subsidiary) level of analysis, this paper advances and tests an overarching theoretical framework pertaining to intracorporate knowledge transfers within multinational corporations (MNCs). We predicted that (i) knowledge outflows from a subsidiary would be positively associated with value of the subsidiary’s knowledge stock, its motivational disposition to share knowledge, and the richness of transmission channels; and (ii) knowledge inflows into a subsidiary would be positively associated with richness of transmission channels, motivational disposition to acquire knowledge, and the capacity to absorb the incoming knowledge. These predictions were tested empirically with data from 374 subsidiaries within 75 MNCs headquartered in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Except for our predictions regarding the impact of source unit's motivational disposition on knowledge outflows, the data provide either full or partial support to all of the other elements of our theoretical framework. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of external forces on cartel network dynamics: Direct research in the diamond industry

This paper describes the impact of external environmental forces on cartel networks. Using a case research approach, this report examines two leading business networks within one industry, over time. The results suggest that (a) bargaining power of intermediaries increases with the advent of new and powerful actors, (b) process activities that cartels previously controlled are being outsourced to new actors sometimes based in developing countries, (c) other actors are acquiring resources once dominated by a cartel, (d) external forces triggered by the illegal diamond trade, such as international regulatory constraints, no longer favour cartels like De Beers, and (e) over time, these and additional environment factors are forcing actors like De Beers who perform rigid process activities to become more flexible. For example, forces are moving cartels which relied previously on hand-picked intermediaries in highly controlled networks to market their products to adopt a flexible market-focused expansion of operations in retail contexts.     

ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF ORDER STATISTICS FOR A RANDOM SAMPLE SIZE

The distributions of the life lengths of a parallel and of a series system with a random number of components have been studied in reliability theory. In this paper we obtain the distributions of the i'th order statistics and the range, assuming the sample size to be random, with a generalized negative binomial, a generalized Poisson and a generalized logarithmic series distribution. The results of Raghunandanan and Patil (1972) follow immediately from our results.     

The R&D-Marketing Interface in High-Technology Firms

It has become part of the traditional wisdom that good relationships between the R&D and marketing departments are essential for effective new product development. But in so many firms it still just doesn't happen. How come? In this article, three pragmatic researchers, Professors Gupta, Raj, and Wilemon, take another look at what causes the significant barriers that exist at the interface of two of the key product innovation functions. What they discover is disagreement between marketing and R&D people about what they should do together. They also find that R&D people are the more reluctant cooperators. They draw some interesting opinions from the parties as to why the barriers exist.