Gestaltung von Tarifen für kommunikationsfähige Messsysteme im Verbund mit zeitvariablen Stromtarifen

In Germany too, communication-capable electricity metering systems (CMS) together with time-based differentiation of kWh-rates for energy consumption are increasingly proliferated among household customers. Nevertheless, empirical evidence with respect to preferences of members of this customer group for the design of CMS tariff elements and of time-variant electricity consumption rates is still scarce. The present study captures such preferences by means of conjoint analysis of data obtained in an online survey of 754 German-speaking adults. Examined CMS tariff elements are a one-off installation fee and monthly recurring use charges. The studied characteristics of time-based rates are the number of time/tariff blocks, the maximum spread between kWh-rates for different time windows and the adaptability/predictability of kWh-rates. Most respondents judged multidimensional CMS and electricity consumption tariff offerings mainly in light of the CMS tariff characteristics. The vast majority of the participants perceived kWh-rates, which may change with a minimum lead time of one day as reducing the benefit of CMS and consumption tariff bundles. Tariff preferences on the one hand were only rarely significantly related to customers’ socio-demographic and electricity procurement characteristics as well as their CMS-related expectations/assessments on the other. The willingness to accept CMS-related one-off installation and recurring service charges as well as the propensity to opt for time-dependent electricity consumption tariff variants differing clearly from non-differentiated electricity price schemes appear to be positively affected by customers’ practical application experience with CMS and time-variant electricity consumption rates. Conclusions are drawn for energy suppliers seeking to propagate CMS-based time-variant tariffs among household customers in Germany and for future scholarly research.     

On kernel nonparametric regression designed for complex survey data

In this article, we consider nonparametric regression analysis between two variables when data are sampled through a complex survey. While nonparametric regression analysis has been widely used with data that may be assumed to be generated from independently and identically distributed (iid) random variables, the methods and asymptotic analyses established for iid data need to be extended in the framework of complex survey designs. Local polynomial regression estimators are studied, which include as particular cases design-based versions of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator and of the local linear regression estimator. In this paper, special emphasis is given to the local linear regression estimator. Our estimators incorporate both the sampling weights and the kernel weights. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) of the kernel estimators using a combined inference framework, and as a corollary consistency of the estimators is deduced. Selection of a bandwidth is necessary for the resulting estimators; an optimal bandwidth can be determined, according to the MSE criterion in the combined mode of inference. Simulation experiments are conducted to illustrate the proposed methodology and an application with the Canadian survey of labour and income dynamics is presented.     

Die Kfz-Steuer—ein Relikt?

Die überlastung des Stra?ennetzes, die anhaltende Unterfinanzierung des Bundesverkehrswegeplans und die ?kologischen Probleme des wachsenden Verkehrs erfordern eine grundlegende Reform der Bereitstellung und Finanzierung des Stra?enwegenetzes. Die L?sung dieser Probleme wird vielfach in einer nutzungsabh?ngigen Finanzierung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur gesehen. Welche Konsequenzen erg?ben sich aus einem solchen Systemwechsel für die Kfz-Steuer? Sollte sie unver?ndert beibehalten, reformiert oder gar abgeschafft werden? Hermann Rappen, 51, Dipl.-?konom, ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter des Rheinisch-Westf?lischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung in Essen.     

Bewertung von Personalabbauprogrammen aus Aktionärssicht – Eine Bestandsaufnahme der empirischen Ereignisstudien-Forschung –

This paper reviews evidence from 32 event studies on effects of an announcement of a large scale reduction in work force (RIF) program on the share price/equity value of stock-quoted corporations and on factors suited to explain RIF impact variations. All in all the empirical data indicate that on average (Anglosaxon) capital markets do not respond to RIF notifications with significantly positive abnormal returns. Rather, they tend to display negative abnormal share price consequences, i.e. RIF announcements – as typically shaped by corporations – are likely to destroy shareholder value. On the whole, extant work suggests that abnormal returns following RIF disclosures tend to be worse if (1) the stated RIF reason is declining demand, (2) the reduction to total staff ratio is high and (3) the reduction is based mainly on layoffs instead of voluntary separations. Further methodologically improved research is required to explore the extent to which the present review’s conclusions hold in German-speaking countries.     

Die Ermittlung von Risikozuschlägen bei der Zeitwertbewertung von Verpflichtungen aus Schadenversicherungsgeschäften

The IASB proposes fair value accounting of insurance liabilities in the new IFRS on insurance contracts. These liabilities are not systematically traded in markets. Therefore the estimation of a fair value is only possible by simulating a market transaction. This simulation can be carried out by using financial models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Economic Capital Model. In order to determine the fair value it has to be tested if those models can realistically calculate the insurance risk of the liabilities. This includes analysing the nature and extent of risk measurement as well as the assumptions the models are based on. The particular problem of the Capital Asset Pricing Model consists in measuring the risk by betas. An insurance beta can only be determined by relating it to other directly measurable betas. Those relationships can only be developed by putting forward special assumptions which increases the likelihood of a subjective valuation. The Economic Capital Model on the opposite is able to measure the insurance risk. The analysis of the models is carried out under simplified assumptions. Therefore it remains to be proven that the Economic Capital Model can also handle a more specific view of the insurance risk.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Multidimensional social capital as a boost or a bar to innovativeness

Innovation does not only demand new ideas, financial resources and knowledge of supplier and user systems, but is also influenced by social capital which has an impact on the innovativeness in business networks. However, social capital is often vague, at times described as a “catch-all notion”. In this paper definitions of social capital are suggested to support the management of innovation in networks. Three dimensions of social capital are applied in a case study of a regional strategic network – the socio-economic, the structural and the actor-oriented dimensions – while focusing on the last one. Data were collected at two points in time, at the start of the regional strategic network in 2004 and at the end of the project in 2010. The application of the concepts and the comparison between these two points in time highlight the influence of social capital and how it can hinder or be used to promote innovation processes.