Multi-population mortality models: fitting,forecasting and comparisons

We review a number of multi-population mortality models: variations of the Li & Lee model, and the common-age-effect (CAE) model of Kleinow. Model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Although this introduces some challenging identifiability problems and complicates the estimation process it allows a fair comparison of the different models. We propose to solve these identifiability problems by applying two-dimensional constraints over the parameters. Using data from six countries, we compare and rank, both visually and numerically, the models’ fitting qualities and develop forecasting models that produce non-diverging, joint mortality rate scenarios. It is found that the CAE model fits best. But we also find that the Li and Lee model potentially suffers from robustness problems when calibrated using maximum likelihood.     

Parameter risk in time-series mortality forecasts

The projection of mortality rates is an essential part of valuing liabilities in life insurance portfolios and pension schemes. An important tool for risk management and solvency purposes is a stochastic projection model. We show that ARIMA models can be better representations of mortality time-series than simple random-walk models. We also consider the issue of parameter risk in time-series models from the point of view of an insurer using them for regulatory risk reporting – formulae are given for decomposing overall risk into undiversifiable trend risk (parameter uncertainty) and diversifiable volatility. Particular attention is given to the contrasts in how academic researchers might view these models and how insurance regulators and practitioners in life offices might use them. Using a bootstrap method we find that, while certain kinds of parameter risk are negligible, others are too material to ignore. We also find that an objective model selection criterion, such as goodness of fit to past data, can result in the selection of a model with unstable parameter values. While this aspect of the model is superficially undesirable, it also leads to slightly higher capital requirements and thus makes the model of keen interest to regulators. Our conclusions have relevance to insurers using value-at-risk capital assessments in the European Union under Solvency II, but also territories using conditional tail expectations such as Australia, Canada and Switzerland.     

Risk aversion and the dynamics of optimal liquidation strategies in illiquid markets

We consider the infinite-horizon optimal portfolio liquidation problem for a von Neumann–Morgenstern investor in the liquidity model of Almgren (Appl. Math. Finance 10:1–18, 2003). Using a stochastic control approach, we characterize the value function and the optimal strategy as classical solutions of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations. We furthermore analyze the sensitivities of the value function and the optimal strategy with respect to the various model parameters. In particular, we find that the optimal strategy is aggressive or passive in-the-money, respectively, if and only if the utility function displays increasing or decreasing risk aversion. Surprisingly, only few further monotonicity relations exist with respect to the other parameters. We point out in particular that the speed by which the remaining asset position is sold can be decreasing in the size of the position but increasing in the liquidity price impact.      

The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy

This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in ‘new’ and ‘old’ economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990–2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.     

Career patterns of top management team members in five countries: an optimal matching analysis

This paper introduces optimal matching analysis (OMA) to the field of top management research. With this method, we develop six career patterns of top management team (TMT) members from five countries based on their international experience, organizational tenure and professional experience. The results provide strong support for the significance of these patterns, since each country (Denmark, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) shows one to four predominant career patterns of their managers and the occurrence of these patterns also differs significantly between the fields of activity within the TMT (chairperson, head of a division, primary activities and support activities).     

Basic Questions of 'Sustainable Tourism': Does Ecological and Socially Acceptable Tourism Have a Chance?

This paper examines the tourism market and its effects on the national economy. Ecological and socio-cultural problems cannot be denied. Due to an ever-increasing number of tourists, studies of tourism specific problems are necessary. To suggest and understand steps for the realisation of sustainable tourism, the author demands a glance at the whole tourism system, which he does by giving an overview of the tourism industry with obvious problems in that field. There is an analysis of the development of tourism demand, and the question whether there is something like 'sustainable mass tourism'. The increasing awareness of the environment plays an important role when it comes to tourism and selecting a tourism destination. The paper tries to find answers to promote a more sustainable tourism through tour operators and tourism companies, which can be a niche strategy for small or medium sized businesses. Strategical points (approaches) of a more sustainable tourism are shown. The realisation of sustainable tourism can be an economical opportunity for tourism companies in the long term, but according to the author the immediate risks involved in such a strategy can outweigh the benefits. There are also limits in carrying out more sustainable tourism programmes.     

Risiken aus kommerzieller Nutzung des Internet — Möglichkeiten der Schadenverhütung und Versicherung

Due to the increasing importance of the Internet and its commercial use a new risk category has emerged, opening up interesting business opportunities for insurance companies. — Besides insurance, loss prevention measures must be considered key aspects in this context, particularly since without contract clauses regarding loss prevention and extensive assessment of an insured’s activities in this field, insurance may not be available in many cases. After a short classification and explanation of Internet risks, this paper firstly deals with loss prevention, concentrating on the technical measures such as cryptology or firewall concepts, which are specific for the risks in question. These measures allow for a significant increase in the security of data transfer and the security of individual networks’ connections to the Internet. A complete elimination of risk, however, is usually not an economically reasonable goal. The question, to what extent the remaining risk can be covered by insurance, is addressed in the following section of this paper, in which we analyze problems of insurability and how these problems could probably be solved through product design.