The impact of relative residence times on the distribution of heavy drinkers in highly distinct environments

Alcohol consumption is a function of social dynamics, environmental contexts, individuals' preferences and family history. Empirical surveys have focused primarily on identification of risk factors for high-level drinking but have done little to clarify the underlying mechanisms at work. Also, there have been few attempts to apply nonlinear dynamics to the study of these mechanisms and processes at the population level. A simple framework where drinking is modeled as a socially contagious process in low- and high-risk connected environments is introduced. Individuals are classified as light, moderate (assumed mobile), and heavy drinkers. Moderate drinkers provide the link between both environments, that is, they are assumed to be the only individuals drinking in both settings. The focus here is on the effect of moderate drinkers, measured by the proportion of their time spent in “low-” versus “high-” risk drinking environments, on the distribution of drinkers.A simple model within our contact framework predicts that if the relative residence times of moderate drinkers are distributed randomly between low- and high-risk environments then the proportion of heavy drinkers is likely to be higher than expected. However, the full story even in a highly simplified setting is not so simple because “strong” local social mixing tends to increase high-risk drinking on its own. High levels of social interaction between light and moderate drinkers in low-risk environments can diminish the importance of the distribution of relative drinking times on the prevalence of heavy drinking.     

Profiling mobile TV adopters in college student populations of Korea

By profiling demographic characteristics, perceived general adoption attributes, perceived value-based adoption attributes, motivational needs, mass media use, and content interest, this exploratory study examines the nature of four categories of mobile TV adopters — current, potential, continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups. Despite the limited sample size (N = 214), there are some meaningful findings. First of all, the non-adoption rate of mobile TV of the continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups is higher than the adoption rate of the current and potential user groups. Less than half of the respondents (N = 34) who had used TV on a mobile device were unwilling to use it again in the next twelve months, and almost half of those (N = 102) did not have the intention of using it within the coming year. The results suggest that the discontinuous group seems to have been dissatisfied with the actual mobile TV use when compared with their expectations and evaluations, while the potential user group is more likely to have high expectations and positive evaluations before the adoption and use of mobile TV. All user groups were unwilling to pay the fee, despite the current and potential user groups perceiving the exceptional values. No differences were found in the personality trait of innovativeness and mass media use behaviors among the four groups.     

Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system

This paper presents a new methodology to build internal business scenarios from the data gathered by some key performance indicators (KPIs) defined within a performance measurement system. The application of the principal components analysis technique leads to the identification of latent relationships between KPIs that underlies some important business aspects. Further, this methodology allows to represent not only the temporal evolution of the organisation as a function of these business aspects but also the definition and determination of internal business scenarios, being therefore the source of meaningful managerial information. At the end of the paper, results of a practical application are presented and discussed, as well as their importance for the organisation from a decision making point of view.     

Lebanon: From cataclysm to opportunity—Crisis management lessons for MNCs in the tourism sector of the Middle East

Lebanon is a complex country of extraordinary promise; often thrust into crisis, including recent military assaults, terrorist attacks and bombings. The authors share findings from a longitudinal field-study of the evolving political and business climate of Lebanon, emphasizing a particular MNC that is thriving amidst social, ideological and political conflicts. A synthesis of primary and secondary data revealed the InterContinental Phoenicia hotel as a model institution in the face of extreme crisis. Key managerial insights that can be helpful to investors, MNCs and managers in the Middle East and other places subjected to similarly extreme conditions are shared.     

The state of technological and social change: Impressions

As the long-wave theory has predicted, we are seeing a period of consolidation in which the pace of radical technological innovation seems exceeded by the pace of social change. Peter Drucker's dictum, that technology changes faster than society, appears now to have been reversed. The article offers research and anecdotal support for these assertions, linking them to specific trends and trend interactions, including patents and intellectual property litigation, new product development, and politics and revolution.     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda.     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

Technical change and total factor productivity growth: The case of Chinese provinces

In the literature technical change (TC) is mostly assumed to be exogenous and specified as a function of the time trend or time dummies. However, some exogenous external factors other than time can also affect TC. In this paper we model TC via time trend (external non-economic) as well as other exogenous (external economic) factors (technology shifters). For this we define technology indices based on the external economic factors and the time trend. The specification of production function is then amended to accommodate these technology indices which are not necessarily separable from the traditional inputs. That is, these technology indices allow for non-neutral shift in the production function. In doing so we are able to decompose TC (a component of TFP change) into two parts. One part is driven by time and the other part is related to producer-specific external economic factors. The latter can further be decomposed into each external economic factors. The empirical model uses panel data on Chinese provinces. We identify a number of key technology shifters and their effect on technical change and TFP growth of provinces are examined.