Technical Efficiency of Industrial State-Owned Enterprises in Vietnam

Measured among themselves, industrial state-owned enterprises (SOE) in Vietnam have recorded a rather high level of technical efficiency, as well as a moderate improvement in technical efficiency between the 1997 and 1998. Of the possible factors, the share of skilled workers, location in Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon) and engagement in export activities were considered the most important in determining the technical efficiency level. Between 1997 and 1998 there was no evidence of technological progress. For the ongoing SOE reform process in Vietnam, attention should be given to improving the skills of the work force and to encouraging the export-led development strategy. Creating a competitive envir-onment and a fully developed system of market-supporting institutions is also highly needed. In addition, it is necessary to invest in new technology for industrial SOE in Vietnam.     

International Effects of Stock Market Dispersion

We study the extent to which stock market dispersion is related to unemployment and output growth for 16 countries over 20 years. Using panel vector-auto-regressions and panel dynamic regressions, we find increases in stock market dispersion across industries to induce future increases in unemployment and future decreases in industrial production (IP) growth. Moreover, the responses of unemployment and IP growth following a positive shock to stock market dispersion are persistent and are robust to various controls, sample periods, and estimation methods. Our article provides cross-country evidence in support of the hypothesis that shifts in demand across industries negatively affect employment.     

Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Sociopolitical Instability

The paper presents a model of optimal government policy when policy choices may exacerbate sociopolitical instability (SPI). The authors show that optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The resulting equilibrium dynamics inherit the properties of government policies and need not be monotone. Indeed, for a broad set of conditions, government policy is unable to eliminate the poverty trap; when these conditions do not hold, “most” countries eventually reach a balanced growth path. The predictions of the model are tested by developing three new measures of SPI for a panel of 58 countries. Estimating optimal policies and the growth equation derived from the model reveals strong support for the theory.     

Is Real Estate Really an Inflation Hedge? Evidence from Taiwan*

This study examines whether Taiwan's housing returns hedge against expected and unexpected inflation. In other words, how well does the rise in housing returns compensate for the costs added as a result of the shrink in wealth and purchasing power? Within the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean model framework, we further explore the impact of conditional hetero‐risk on housing return and the influence of asymmetric information on conditional risk. Over the period from 1991 to 2006, the empirical results reveal negative relationships between housing returns and expected as well as unexpected inflation, proving the ineffective inflation hedge of Taiwan's housing investment. The determinant of this phenomenon is the leverage shock between ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’.     

Cost Efficiency of the Banking Sector in Vietnam: A Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Approach with Regularity Constraints

This paper investigates the cost efficiency of the Vietnamese banking industry. To obtain an appropriate estimate of cost efficiency, monotonicity and concavity constraints are incorporated in the estimation of the cost frontier using the Bayesian approach. Overall, the level of cost efficiency of Vietnam's banking sector is relatively high, around 87 percent. The findings reveal minor and insignificant differences in the cost efficiency of different groups of banks classified by ownership. Furthermore, throughout the estimation period, the industry faced a slight decrease in cost efficiency. This could be explained by increases in the costs of managing diverse activities, the enlargement of branch networks and the upgrading of the banking technology platform.     

News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations

Are the changes in the future technology process, the so-called “news shocks,” the main contributors to the macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan over the past forty years? In this paper, we take two structural vector-auto-regression (SVAR) approaches to answer this question. First, we quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of news shocks among candidate shocks, estimating a structural vector-error–correction model (SVECM). Our estimated results suggest that the contribution of the TFP news shocks is nonnegligible, which is in line with the findings of previous works. Furthermore, we disentangle the source of news shocks by adopting several kinds of restrictions and find that news shocks on investment-specific technology (IST) also have an important effect. Second, to minimize the gap between the SVAR approach and the Bayesian estimation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we adopt an alternative approach: SVAR with sign restrictions. The SVAR with sign restrictions reconfirms the results that the news shocks are important in explaining the Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate.     

Corruption,Types of Corruption and Firm Financial Performance: New Evidence from a Transitional Economy

Using a nationwide survey of provincial institutional quality and a sample of private manufacturing small and medium scale enterprises (the SMEs), this paper contributes to the literature by considering for the first time the effects of corruption on the financial performance of Vietnamese private SMEs. Interestingly, contrary to previous findings, we find that corruption when measured by a dummy variable, does not affect firms’ financial performance after controlling for heterogeneity, simultaneity and dynamic endogeneity. However, the intensity of bribery and the majority of the forms of corruption were found to have negative impacts on firms’ financial performance. Hence, a typical approach using only a dummy variable for bribery might not adequately evaluate the impact of bribe intensity or even ignores the negative impacts of some types of bribes on firms’ financial performance. The findings suggest that anti-corruption measures are vital for the development of the Vietnamese private SMEs.     

Takeover threats,antitakeover amendments and stock price reaction

We examine the influence of takeover threats on the stock price of firms proposing antitakeover amendments. Stock prices of the majority of firms, which are not takeover targets during the four years surrounding the amendments, are unaffected, while prices of firms that become takeover targets within two years increase significantly. We document weak evidence of wealth losses only for a sample of prior targets. Our findings suggest that shareholders of the average firm are not harmed by antitakeover amendments because they provide either a better bargaining position or an information signal to the market.