Initial Steps in High-Frequency Modeling of China

This paper presents the first step in building a forecasting model of Chinas GDP. Being constrained by a statistical history that effectively begins in 1993, it uses high frequency data and principal components analysis to construct a single-equation model that generates elasticities and is applied to two-quarter-ahead forecasts. Initial results suggest a gradual deceleration of growth, consistent with Chinese government policy.A version of this paper was presented as part of Lawrence R. Kleins Adam Smith Award Address at the NABE Annual Meeting, October 4, 2004. The Adam Smith Award Address was sponsored by Global Insight.JEL Classification C5,O53     

RECIPROCITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

This article is in two parts. First, the theoretical basis underlying the possibility of reciprocity in trade is stated. Secondly, a study has been made of statistics of post war trade between the U.K and its major trading partners in an attempt to see whether any evidence of reciprocity emerges and, if so, the nature of the relationship. Doubt is cast on the supposition that a calculation of net import saving is a reliable short-run estimate of net balance of payments contribution of an expansion of U.K. agriculture. Finally, the results of the analysis are applied to the level of import saving projected by the National Economic Development Committee's Report on “Agriculture's Import Saving Role”.     

Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis

Government-guaranteed mortgage loans (GFRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were introduced to make payment to income (PTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) qualification conventions less restrictive. This paper analyzes the effect of GFRMs and ARMs on the demand for housing. Using a large national data set for the 1988 to 1989 period, we employ a two-stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a multinomial logit model estimates the probability of choosing an FRM, ARM or GFRM. Predicted values from the logit are used to construct user costs and estimate housing demand. Using the model estimates, we simulate demand under four different mortgage availability regimes: FRM, FRM and GFRM, FRM and ARM and all three. These simulations indicate that GFRMs, by relaxing LTV constraints, increase housing demand by approximately 6.2% relative to the FRM regime; the addition of ARMs, by relaxing both PTI and LTV constraints, raises demand by an additional 6%, for a total of 12.2% with inclusion of all alternatives.     

THE IMPACT OF RURAL OUTMIGRATION ON REGION OF ORIGIN IN KOREA*

To assess the impact of rural outmigration on regions of origin, this paper borrows from international trade theory to develop a model of rural-to-urban migration. Borrowing from theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease, a model is developed for application to Korea. The model finds that rural outmigration can be detrimental to the rural sector when outmigration reduces farm profitability and triggers deterioration in the rural service sector. Farm profitability falls because of rising labor costs that cannot be passed on to consumers. The rural service sector falters when outmigration reduces market demand while raising input costs. County (kun) level Korean census data are used to test the model.     

Domestic Content and Compensatory Export Requirements: Protection of the Motor Vehicle Industry in the Philippines

The motor vehicle industry in the Philippines is protected bya virtual embargo on the importation of new vehicles but operatesunder the burden of domestic content and compensatory exportrequirements that protect Philippine producers of automotivecomponents. This article develops a model to assess the netimpact of this complicated protective regime. Estimates indicatesubstantial benefits to the assembly and components industriesand losses to vehicle purchasers. Reform of the system to eliminatethe embargo as well as the domestic content and compensatoryexport restraints at current tariff rates would benefit vehiclepurchasers but would increase the effective rate of protectionto assembly operations by decreasing prices of components. Reformmeasures to eliminate the domestic content and compensatoryexport requirements should be accompanied by simultaneous reductionsin tariffs on assembled vehicles.     

Evaluating Expert Systems in a Financial Domain: A Study Demonstrating Issues in Case Selection,Validation Standards and Evaluator Bias

This article describes and generalizes a validation study of four commercially available personal financial planning expert systems and the rationale for the research methodology used. Our evaluation of these systems adds to the understanding of verification and validation issues related to case selection, validation standards and evaluator bias. The article describes the systems, their domain and the empirical method—field tests using hypothetical cases—and relates that method to the literature. Comparing same-task systems combines multiple system perspectives and multiple models. Our methodology did efficiently and effectively identify conflicting terminology, omissions and system weaknesses but was inadequate for comparing the complex plan recommendations. The results re-emphasize the importance of continual knowledge base updating, formal system testing and the need for external evaluation. The results also show the value of comparing multiple, same-task systems.     

Frequent-user patients: reducing costs while making appropriate discharges

Homeless patients who lack access to the health resources they need to maintain their health on their own pose a challenge for hospitals: Premature discharge of such patients can result in their being readmitted to the hospital in a short time, leading to higher costs for the hospital. Hospitals can address this problem by developing clear, effective homeless discharge policies and by developing ongoing relationships with appropriate medical respite care providers. A hospital also can benefit from spearheading an initiative to develop a medical respite program, enlisting the assistance of other community stakeholders.     

Addressing Issues Relating To Going-Gongern Audit Qualifications And Corporate Failure

This study examines the incidence of going-concern audit qualifications and of corporate failure for Australian publicly listed companies over the period 1980-90. The analysis includes a review of annual reports for companies that attracted going-concern qualifications but did not subsequently fail, in order to identify potential indicators of survival. The differences between the indicators noted for failed companies that had their last accounts qualified on the basis of going concern, and those of failed companies not qualified, was also examined. Other issues of interest include a comparison of going-concern qualifications by Big Eight (Six) and other audit firms, and the extent and location of disclosure of going-concern problems in the annual report.     

Leadership in educational technology: Insights from the corporate world

More than 100 years ago, John Dewey, a major influence in American education, argued for the need to “stimulate the spirit of inquiry into actual fact” (Dewey, 2002, p. 118). The debate among politicians and educators about the structure, purpose, and goals of education and inquiry continues. Yet the world has changed, largely because of widely accessible and versatile technologies. We are unclear how Dewey's spirit of inquiry will grow, die, or reinvent itself through boundaryless tools of inquiry such as the Internet, but the technology is here and will not disappear while educators debate best methods. Twenty‐first‐century society demands new ways to learn and understand, and these new ways of learning require new ways of teaching (McPheeters, 2009/2010). For many students, especially the younger generations, technology intertwines with almost all daily activities, including social contact. Many educators lag behind the technological curve and express frustration at the challenge to shift their educational paradigms toward increasingly technological means of communication and interaction, or entertain “virtual realities” as legitimate educational forums. The purpose of this symposium is to examine the role of technology in transforming higher education. The goal is to seek best methods of using technology more effectively to educate learners for the 21st century. The shifts in society's focus and the characteristics of learners going into the future are also critical, and part of this discussion.     

The new ecological paradigm and responses to climate change in China

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Chinese-Mandarin version of the revised new ecological paradigm (NEP-R) scale. In a sample of 515 Mandarin-speaking Chinese nationals, we first assessed the factor structure and internal consistency of the NEP-R and assessed its validity by examining associations with global warming risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Respondents completed the NEP-R scale, together with measures of risk perception and mitigation behavior. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a two-factor solution, reflecting ecocentric and anthropocentric worldviews, best fit the data. Multi-group path analysis revealed that respondents with stronger ecocentric and weaker anthropocentric worldviews perceived more risks associated with global warming. In turn, respondents who perceived more risks reported engaging in more global warming mitigation behaviors. But importantly, the path between risk perceptions and behavior was significantly stronger for highly educated respondents than for less educated respondents, suggesting that education may represent an important strategy for bridging the gap between perceived risks about global warming and action.