Industrial reform in Jamaica in the 1980s: an export promotion strategy

Jamaica has shifted gradually from an import substitution strategy of industrialization in the 1960s and early 1970s to a much more export-orientated approach. Policy in the 1980s has been based around changes to the real exchange rate, foreign trade liberalization, fiscal incentives to new investment, particularly foreign investment, and selective support through various subsidies. Performance has been mixed, however, with only the garment sub-sector of manufacturing achieving significant export growth. Furthermore, the heavy involvement of transnational firms in the new industrial investment raises questions about the long-run viability of the form of export promotion currently being pursued     

On-Line Portfolio Selection Using Multiplicative Updates

We present an on-line investment algorithm that achieves almost the same wealth as the best constant-rebalanced portfolio determined in hindsight from the actual market outcomes. The algorithm employs a multiplicative update rule derived using a framework introduced by Kivinen and Warmuth. Our algorithm is very simple to implement and requires only constant storage and computing time per stock in each trading period. We tested the performance of our algorithm on real stock data from the New York Stock Exchange accumulated during a 22-year period. On these data, our algorithm clearly outperforms the best single stock as well as Cover's universal portfolio selection algorithm. We also present results for the situation in which the investor has access to additional "side information."     

Incorporating choice dynamics in models of consumer behavior

This paper presents a framework for organizing and discussing factors influencing consumer choice dynamics, how these factors may be incorporated into models of buyer behavior and problems that may arise in estimating such models. The paper identifies research issues and delineates possible approaches. Proceedings of Session on Choice Dynamics at the Banff Symposium on Consumer Decision-Making and Choice Behavior. All authors share equally in content and remaining errors.     

Variability in overseas travel by Americans, 1820–2000

There were substantial fluctuations in the number of American overseas travelers, especially before World War Two. These fluctuations in travel around the long-term upward trend are the focus of this paper. We first identify those fluctuations in the data and then try to explain the patterns. We show that, despite the impact of a myriad of episodic events, fluctuations in travel can be explained to a large extent by changes in the direct price of travel, changes in per capita GDP and wealth in the United States, and by periods of armed conflict.     

Rethinking marketing: Peter Drucker’s challenge

Just as Peter Drucker pointed out the importance of assessing whether a company’s “theory of business” is relevant, marketers need to consider whether the current “theory of marketing” still fits in a world of rapid change. The author examines how Drucker challenged the theory of business at financial services firm Edward Jones, helping to identify new market opportunities. For example, he urged the company to move into metropolitan areas, which now account for 60 percent of the firm’s business. The article then considers how the field of marketing needs to reexamine its own mental models. Finally, the article considers how Drucker’s seminal insights on marketing, particularly his emphasis on an interdisciplinary approach, might point the way to new approaches.     

What are the least developed countries and what benefits may result from the Paris conference?

This paper focuses on the category of the least developed countries in the particular context of the Paris Conference, 1–14 September 1981, sponsored by the United Nations to agree on the Substantial New Programme of Action for the 1980s on behalf of these countries. There is first an examination of the category of least developed countries, the adequacy of criteria used to establish the category, the general economic performance of these countries during the 1960s and 1970s, and the pre-conference results of the list's creation. There follows a preliminary assessment of the results of the Paris Conference. The economic justifications for inclusion in the category are subject to much valid criticism and the likely benefits from this UN Conference will be much less than what the least developed countries themselves calculated to be necessary. Nonetheless, the category is a useful policy tool; and the results of the Conference appear a qualified success, especially in light of the unpropitious international context.     

Economic evaluation of projects : A critical comparison of a new world bank methodology with the UNIDO and the revised OECD approach

The discussion on the evaluation of development projects which seemed more or less to have come to an end at the beginning of the 1970s, has experienced an unexpected revival. Following the publication of the revised version of the OECD Manual by Little and Mirrlees, a new methodology for project evaluation has been developed by the World Bank. The reason behind this is the growing need for differentiated but, at the same time standardized project evaluation methods which include distribution effects involving the poorest 3/5th of the population which have hardly been touched by 20 years of development policy and development assistance. The study focuses on this new World Bank approach by Bruce, van der Tak and Squire, the revised OECD approach by Little and Mirrlees, and the UNIDO guidelines by Dasgupta, Marglin and Sen. The three theoretical concepts are compared and their different methods approaches are then illustrated on the basis of a case study, a dam project in Nepal. Finally, the three approaches are subjected to a critical appraisal in the light of the demands of project evaluation in practice. The three approaches put different emphasis on the social value of consumption, of public and private investment, and distribution effects, and formulate correspondingly different formal evaluation criteria. As the case study shows, the evaluation results are similar. However, a number of crucial problems are not explicitly considered. The main reason for this is the denial of the multidimensionality of each evaluation problem by reducing it to the one-dimensional criterion of economic efficiency, which is defined differently in the three approaches. This has further technical implications as to the lack of clarity regarding the impact of value judgments on different stages of the calculation process on the final outcome. On the other hand, the tool of project evaluation is overburdened with policy decisions which must be taken at higher levels of political decision-making, such as basic decisions on priority sectors, export promotion versus import substitution, or private versus public investment and consumption.