Market Responses to Buy Recommendations Issued by Personal Finance Magazines: Effects of Information, Price-Pressure, and Company Characteristics

This paper analyzes explicit buy recommendations for stockspublished by German Personal Finance Magazines from 1995 to2003. These recommendations earn significant abnormal returnsof 2.58% within the five days around the publication day. Boththe price-pressure hypothesis and the information hypothesiscan be confirmed by our data. The price-pressure effect is mostevident for small stocks and glamour stocks. However, whereasthe initial price reaction to small stocks is additionally drivenby permanent information value, this does not hold true forglamour stocks. In contrast, value stocks are associated withhigh cumulative abnormal returns that are solely driven by informationvalue.     

Valuation of synthetic CDOs

In this paper, we consider the valuation of a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), a pool of underlying credit risky securities, “partitioned” into several tranches, each of which absorbs losses in accordance with its size and seniority. We derive a closed-form solution for credit spreads of the tranches of homogeneous pools and find an approximation for the credit spreads of inhomogeneous pools. The method leads to an accurate estimation of the credit spreads of synthetic CDOs and can be used in risk management applications.     

Financial prediction with constrained tail risk

A new class of asymmetric loss functions derived from the least absolute deviations or least squares loss with a constraint on the mean of one tail of the residual error distribution, is introduced for analyzing financial data. Motivated by risk management principles, the primary intent is to provide “cautious” forecasts under uncertainty. The net effect on fitted models is to shape the residuals so that on average only a prespecified proportion of predictions tend to fall above or below a desired threshold. The loss functions are reformulated as objective functions in the context of parameter estimation for linear regression models, and it is demonstrated how optimization can be implemented via linear programming. The method is a competitor of quantile regression, but is more flexible and broader in scope. An application is illustrated on prediction of NDX and SPX index returns data, while controlling the magnitude of a fraction of worst losses.     

Long‐run price competition

We generalize the standard repeated‐games model of dynamic oligopolistic competition to allow for consumers who are long‐lived and forward looking. Each period leaves some residual demand to future periods and pricing in one period affects consumers' expectations about future prices. We analyze this setting for an indivisible durable good with price‐setting firms and overlapping cohorts of consumers. The model nests the repeated‐game model and the Coasian durable‐goods model as its two extreme cases. The analysis is mostly focused on constant‐price collusion but conditions for collusive recurrent sales are also identified.     

When Stress Frustrates and When It Does Not: Configural Models of Frustrated versus Mellow Salespeople

The purpose of this study is to elucidate the stress–strain relationship by examining compound causes of frustration in the workplace. Drawing on configuration theory, this article describes stress patterns, that is, configurations of role stressors and social stressors, and underlying frustration and its negation, that is, mellowness. In addition, this article describes potential sources of such frustration‐stimulating stress patterns by examining constellations of employee and task characteristics. Based on a sample of 118 salespeople, the authors analyze the data using fuzzy‐set Qualitative Comparative Analysis—an analytic method pertinent to describing configurational patterns of causal factors. The findings from this study indicate the coexistence of alternative patterns of stressors for frustration. In addition, the findings show that configurational patterns for frustrated salespeople are quite different from those characterizing mellow salespeople. In summary, knowledge of these constellations of stressors helps sales managers detect conditions that frustrate, and develop strategies to diminish these conditions in order to improve sales force performance.     

Self‐regulation through Goal Setting*

Goals are an important motivator. But little is known about why and how people set them. We address this issue in a model based on two stylized facts. First, goals serve as reference points for performance. Second, present‐biased preferences create self‐control problems. We show the power and limits of self‐regulation through goals. Goals increase an individual's motivation—but only up to a certain point. Furthermore, they are painful self‐disciplining devices. Thus, greater self‐control problems may result in tougher goals; but for a severe present bias goals either lack a motivating force, or are too painful to be accepted.     

Transformationen einer Marketing- und Vertriebsorganisation

Die Dynamik und Wettbewerbsintensit?t im Medizintechnik-Markt der Ultraschallsysteme zwingt Hersteller permanent zur Anpassung ihrer Strategien und Unternehmensstrukturen. Der vorliegende Praxisbericht zeigt, warum und wie Siemens Medical Solutions seine Marketingorganisation für das Ultraschallgesch?ft in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) von einer eher reaktiven Supportfunktion zu einer proaktiven und gesch?ftsentwickelnden Funktion transformiert hat und nach welchen Prinzipien diese funktioniert.     

Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance

This paper identifies and investigates conceptual and empirical links among Russia's disappointing growth performance of the mid-1990s, its costly and eventually unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998 and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments developed into a system that flourished in an atmosphere of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation and a microeconomic policy of bailing-out enterprises through soft budget constraints. It embodies a large volume of untargeted, implicit subsidies in the order of 7–10 per cent of GDP, which has stifled growth, contributed to the 1998 meltdown through its impact on public debt and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. The overwhelming priority at this point is to dismantle this system, thereby promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of the subsidies).     

On Work and Authority: Issues in Job Enlargement, Job Enrichment, Worker Participation and Shared Authority

Abstract . Continued debate over the nature of work is adding to an existing vast literature in labor economics, business and personnel administration, industrial sociology and social psychology. Both theory and experience indicate that the authoritarian workplace results in social costs through reduced labor productivity and increased worker dissatisfaction. But progress toward shared authority and worker participation in the administration of the production process promises to be slow. Management generally preserves a legitimized authority, defending it with the misplaced rationale of elitism, i.e., the presumed functional superiority of managers. Unions will not press for shared authority, for to do so would undermine their basic and formal function of organizational restraint of managerial authority. Thus, while management and union logically protect their traditional roles, the worker and society are denied the potential benefits of basic changes in work and authority.