Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

Determining factors in entry choice for international expansion. The case of the Spanish hotel industry

The hotel sector, as a service industry where it is possible to separate capital investment from management skills, is a clear example of how internationalisation can be modelled without shareholding involvement through foreign direct investment. This paper is an empirical examination of the key factors influencing the decision process carried out by Spanish hotel companies in choosing an entry mode for international expansion. The main objective is to verify whether the concepts derived from the transaction-cost, agency and the strategic theories of organisational capability and knowledge in companies can really explain the mode of foreign expansion employed by the Spanish hotel sector. This study will allow comparison of findings on holiday resort hotel chains with other analyses on the international hotel industry.