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1.
A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anastasia Ivanova 《Metrika》2003,58(1):1-13
We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing
treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion
as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized
play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities
the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns
more subjects to the better treatment.
Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions. 相似文献
2.
It is well known that the right location of shopping centres is of paramount importance. Unless stores succeed in attracting their own clientele, they rely to a large extent on the impulse behaviour of shoppers. To evaluate alternative locations, models of pedestrian behaviour may be useful. Modern technologies such as GPS and RFID offer new possibilities providing data on routes and stops, which are required as input for such models. An automatic interpretation of GPS tracers with respect to the activities being conducted could enhance the applicability of such technologies to retail management applications. This paper reviews this rapidly growing literature, and shows how automatic data imputation can be established by using Bayesian belief networks and how GPS traces can be fused with land use data of retail location. 相似文献
3.
A Crisis of the Overcrowded Future: Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation
Anastasia Nesvetailova 《New Political Economy》2015,20(3):431-453
This article focuses on the role the shadow banking system played in the financial crisis of 2007–9. Engaging with emergent theories of shadow banking, I inquire into its structural role in contemporary capitalism. My main premise here is that the crisis of 2007–9 is distinct in financial history because it did not centre on any organised market. Rather, it was crisis of the overcrowded financial channels bridging the present and the future, which have become congested because of the massive concentration of financial values generated, yet not sustained, through the shadow banking network. My analysis suggests that shadow banking has determined the nature of financial crisis of 2007–9 and continues to play a necessary role in financial capitalism based on futurity. Drawing on scholarship in financial Keynesianism, contemporary legal studies and early evolutionary political economy, I argue that shadow banking is best seen as the organic institutional infrastructure of financialised capitalism based on debt and geared towards futurity, a concept originally developed by John Commons. 相似文献
4.
We measure the impact of murders on prices and rents of homes in Sydney. We find that housing prices fall by 3.9 per cent for homes within 0.2 miles of the murder in the year following the murder, and weaker results in the second year after a murder. We do not find any effects of murders on rents. Higher media coverage and being located closer to the murder (within 0.1 mile) have no additional effect on prices. Taken together, our findings suggest that proximity to a murder affects nearby property prices, particularly in the first year after the incident. 相似文献
5.
We analyze in this paper how various forms of state intervention can impact microfinance institutions’ lending behavior. Using a simple model where entrepreneurs receive individual uncollateralized loans, we show that, not surprisingly, state intervention through the loan guarantee increases the number of entrepreneurs receiving a loan. However, after modeling business development services (BDS) provided by the microfinance institution, we show that the loan guarantee can have a counterproductive effect by reducing the number of entrepreneurs benefiting from such services. We therefore analyze an alternative policy: BDS subsidization. We show that if BDS are efficient enough and are targeted toward less performing borrowers, then—for fixed government expenditures—such subsidies do better in terms of financial inclusion than the loan guarantee. Moreover, we argue that—under similar conditions—BDS subsidization alone does better in terms of financial inclusion than a mix of policies. 相似文献
6.
Anastasia Gorodzeisky 《Quality and Quantity》2011,45(6):1217-1231
The aim of the present article is twofold First, it tests and demonstrates the supplementary use of focus groups to construct quantitatively oriented survey on anti-minority sentiment. Second, it clarifies two major theoretical concepts-prejudice versus perceived threat-in the research on discriminatory attitudes towards minority populations. More specifically, by using data from focus group discussions on foreign workers in Israel, the study examines the use of such groups for measurement of prejudice and perceived threat within the social and cultural context of Israeli society. The analysis of focus group discussions provides adapted questionnaire scales for measuring prejudice and perceived threat. The findings support the premise that prejudice and perceived threat are two distinct theoretical concepts. 相似文献
7.
We consider estimation of panel data models with sample selection when the equation of interest contains endogenous explanatory variables as well as unobserved heterogeneity. Assuming that appropriate instruments are available, we propose several tests for selection bias and two estimation procedures that correct for selection in the presence of endogenous regressors. The tests are based on the fixed effects two-stage least squares estimator, thereby permitting arbitrary correlation between unobserved heterogeneity and explanatory variables. The first correction procedure is parametric and is valid under the assumption that the errors in the selection equation are normally distributed. The second procedure estimates the model parameters semiparametrically using series estimators. In the proposed testing and correction procedures, the error terms may be heterogeneously distributed and serially dependent in both selection and primary equations. Because these methods allow for a rather flexible structure of the error variance and do not impose any nonstandard assumptions on the conditional distributions of explanatory variables, they provide a useful alternative to the existing approaches presented in the literature. 相似文献
8.
We propose a new method for estimating dynamic panel data models with selection. The method uses backward substitution for the lagged dependent variable, which leads to an estimating equation that requires correcting for contemporaneous selection only. The estimator is valid under relatively weak assumptions about errors and permits avoiding the weak instruments problem associated with differencing. We also propose a simple test for selection bias that is based on the addition of a selection term to the first‐difference equation and subsequent testing for significance of this term. The methods are applied to estimating dynamic earnings equations for women. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
The effectiveness of imperfect pollution control instruments is examined for a diffuse source, multi-contaminant problem in which the transport coefficients for sediment-bound residuals are endogenous. Similar evaluations fix the percentage of sediment deposited and optimize either for a single firm managing the whole watershed or on a firm by firm basis. This study shows that ignoring the dependence of the transport coefficients on intervening land uses creates a positive externality. The filtering potential of activities conducted by firms close to the receptor permits firms further away to undertake more profitable but erosive practices. Optimizing management choices, and consequently endogenizing the transport coefficients, for all firms simultaneously removes the externality. An empirical application combines hydrological simulation models with an economic optimization model for nutrient pollution of surface and ground water within an agricultural watershed. Although firms are homogeneous in abatement costs, differences in spatial location leave uniform instruments unable to achieve the water quality goal efficiently. An ambient tax/subsidy scheme can achieve the water quality goal efficiently but the informational requirements will be excessive in most situations where the transport mechanisms for residuals are dependent upon the practices of independent decision making units. 相似文献
10.
Anastasia Koutsomanoli-Filippaki Emmanuel Mamatzakis Christos Staikouras 《Emerging Markets Review》2009,10(3):167-178
We employ a quadratic loss function using a forward-looking rational expectations model to estimate the dynamics of banking inefficiency scores in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the period 1998–2005. Results show that there is heterogeneity in the speed of adjustment to the long run equilibrium across countries and over time, while it appears that the recent accession to the EU has not led to an increase in the speed of adjustment, as it would be expected in light of the integration process prior to the accession. Ownership asserts certain influence on the speed at which banks correct past-period inefficiency. 相似文献